Drew Linzer shows some confidence in Clinton

This seems reasonably aggressive:

Race Side Risking To Win Result
President Clinton 27.40% 5.43% 0.00%

But not when compared against the individual state projections:

State Electoral Votes Clinton▼ Trump
D.C. » 3 >99% <1%
Wis. » 10 >99% <1%
Wash. » 12 >99% <1%
Va. » 13 >99% <1%
Vt. » 3 >99% <1%
R.I. » 4 >99% <1%
Pa. » 20 >99% <1%
Ore. » 7 >99% <1%
N.Y. » 29 >99% <1%
N.M. » 5 >99% <1%
N.J. » 14 >99% <1%
Minn. » 10 >99% <1%
Mich. » 16 >99% <1%
Mass. » 11 >99% <1%
Md. » 10 >99% <1%
Maine » 4 >99% <1%
Ill. » 20 >99% <1%
Hawaii » 4 >99% <1%
Del. » 3 >99% <1%
Conn. » 7 >99% <1%
Calif. » 55 >99% <1%
Colo. » 9 99.00% 1.00%
N.H. » 4 96.00% 4.00%

That’s 273 electoral votes. For comparison, he’d risk 85.6% of his bankroll on Clinton winning New Hampshire at -260 (laying 2.6-1).

The other states under 99% for either candidate?

State Electoral Votes Clinton▼ Trump
Fla. » 29 75.00% 25.00%
N.C. » 15 59.00% 41.00%
Nev. » 6 56.00% 44.00%
Ohio » 18 15.00% 85.00%
Ariz. » 11 6.00% 94.00%
Iowa » 6 3.00% 97.00%
Ga. » 16 3.00% 97.00%

Nevada has information that has moved the market, but the other states are fairly straightforward. Drew would be betting on a Clinton win in Florida, a Trump win in Ohio, and would bet heavily on Trump in Iowa and Georgia. States like Alaska, Maine, and Michigan would also see huge wagers as Drew considers them locks. Fair enough. As for the Senate:

Indiana Bayh 35.84% 55.55% 0.00%
Missouri Kander 4.14% 7.25% 0.00%
North Carolina X 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
New Hampshire X 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Nevada X 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Pennsylvania McGinty 23.50% 6.71% 0.00%
Wisconsin X 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

That is a lot of faith in Evan Bayh. I don’t expect that to end well for Mr. Linzer (or Mr. Bayh).

Honestly, the real question is how we get to a mere 88% when we have such extreme state-by-state projections.

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