NFL: Vegas and Talent projections

Talent wins is based off of roster strength, adjusted for the schedule. “Vegas” wins are based off of the market prices of the team win totals, with the vigorish removed and total wins set to 256. Some oddities:

  1. The Jets roster looks surprisingly solid for a team we all expect to be lousy at best.
  2. The Steelers defense still looks pretty bad.
  3. The Colts roster is fairly weak, despite the presence of Andrew Luck.
  4. The Broncos won the Super Bowl last season despite awful QB play. The roster is still fairly strong, despite the presence of the Sanchize.
  5. I’m not sure what is up with Kansas City. I was expecting their roster to grade out as one of the best in the AFC.
  6. Oakland has done a superb job drafting recently, and the roster is beginning to reflect that.
  7. I don’t believe the Giants are as good as the sum of their parts. Part of that is the team has above-average injury problems, so the talent at training camp isn’t necessarily commensurate with the talent we’ll see on the field week nine.
  8. As with Kansas City, I was expecting more from the Vikings roster. I’ve generally liked their drafts, so this will require a closer look.
  9. The Falcons roster is awful. Bad drafts plus the hangover from the Julio Jones trade have taken their toll.
  10. The Saints roster is surprisingly not-awful. Disregard the previous sentence if Drew Brees got old in the offseason.
  11. The Buccaneers are beginning to look like a normal NFL team. That’s in contrast to the Titans who still look poor.
  12. The Cardinals and Seahawks still look excellent.
  13. I am a bit confused by the Rams roster construction. Presumably they know something I don’t, but this is my blog and I am skeptical of them.
  14. The 49ers have been a tire-fire since Harbaugh and the front office went to war.

(Updated as of 7/30)

Team Talent Wins “Vegas” Wins
Buffalo Bills 7.79 7.82
Miami Dolphins 6.48 6.96
New England Patriots 10.32 10.46
New York Jets 8.22 7.24
Baltimore Ravens 7.72 7.82
Cincinnati Bengals 9.58 9.42
Cleveland Browns 4.83 4.79
Pittsburgh Steelers 9.51 10.17
Houston Texans 8.68 8.37
Indianapolis Colts 8.02 8.74
Jacksonville Jaguars 7.43 7.33
Tennessee Titans 5.15 5.72
Denver Broncos 9.26 8.70
Kansas City Chiefs 8.37 9.35
Oakland Raiders 9.27 8.37
San Diego Chargers 7.08 7.16
Dallas Cowboys 9.15 8.86
New York Giants 8.78 7.94
Philadelphia Eagles 6.12 6.40
Washington Redskins 7.30 7.07
Chicago Bears 7.76 6.99
Detroit Lions 6.97 6.79
Green Bay Packers 10.65 10.82
Minnesota Vikings 8.91 9.41
Atlanta Falcons 4.85 6.98
Carolina Panthers 10.46 10.32
New Orleans Saints 8.11 6.70
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7.57 6.89
Arizona Cardinals 10.61 9.93
San Francisco 49ers 3.80 5.18
Seattle Seahawks 11.13 10.44
Los Angeles Rams 6.10 6.84

 

 

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