The wind cries St. Mary’s

We’d expect an average bubble team win 79.5% of their games vs. St. Mary’s schedule. St. Mary’s won 84.4%. I’m honestly not sure what kind of performance Seth Davis would appreciate against it.

Schedule strength is not an additive value. It matters a great deal (50% in fact). Every game counts, and it matters directly relative to the opposition (noting where the game is played. Teams like St. Mary’s, Valparaiso, and Arkansas-Little Rock get the short end of the stick when SoS is treated like a plus, regardless of how you performed against that schedule.

Tomorrow will be the major update. If you have any questions, please either ask them here, or ask them on Twitter @sethburn. Enjoy the games today.

Rank School WAB avg Resume Pyth Pyth 50-50 Split
1 Kansas 10.36 0.9572 0.9502 0.9537
2 Villanova 8.63 0.9473 0.9469 0.9471
3 Virginia 8.24 0.9329 0.9494 0.9411
4 Oklahoma 7.48 0.9219 0.9303 0.9261
5 North Carolina 7.21 0.9231 0.9465 0.9348
6 West Virginia 6.96 0.9159 0.9379 0.9269
7 Xavier 6.87 0.9272 0.9142 0.9207
8 Miami FL 6.31 0.9105 0.9125 0.9115
9 Michigan St. 6.24 0.9212 0.9495 0.9354
10 Oregon 6.14 0.9129 0.9075 0.9102
11 Utah 6.00 0.9061 0.8904 0.8982
12 Texas A&M 4.50 0.889 0.8989 0.8939
13 Maryland 4.28 0.886 0.8939 0.89
14 Purdue 4.23 0.8853 0.9178 0.9016
15 Louisville 3.80 0.876 0.922 0.899
16 Duke 3.75 0.8679 0.9058 0.8868
17 SMU 3.74 0.8916 0.9065 0.899
18 Kentucky 3.63 0.8727 0.9224 0.8975
19 Indiana 3.53 0.8751 0.9088 0.8919
20 Arizona 3.40 0.8684 0.9101 0.8893
21 Seton Hall 3.39 0.8689 0.8763 0.8726
22 Iowa St. 3.29 0.8603 0.9035 0.8819
23 Baylor 3.14 0.8571 0.8854 0.8713
24 Texas 2.91 0.8533 0.8649 0.8591
25 Dayton 2.70 0.8668 0.8199 0.8433
26 Providence 2.42 0.8473 0.828 0.8377
27 California 2.25 0.8445 0.8896 0.8671
28 Notre Dame 1.98 0.8389 0.8506 0.8447
29 Iowa 1.98 0.8409 0.8989 0.8699
30 Gonzaga 1.82 0.8442 0.8834 0.8638
31 Saint Joseph’s 1.76 0.8433 0.8236 0.8334
32 Arkansas Little Rock 1.59 0.8558 0.7702 0.813
33 Saint Mary’s 1.57 0.848 0.8589 0.8534
34 Michigan 1.53 0.8304 0.8258 0.8281
35 South Carolina 1.48 0.8346 0.825 0.8298
36 Butler 1.43 0.8307 0.8555 0.8431
37 Texas Tech 1.11 0.8228 0.8277 0.8252
38 Pittsburgh 0.97 0.8202 0.8413 0.8307
39 Connecticut 0.74 0.8164 0.871 0.8437
40 Colorado 0.72 0.815 0.8157 0.8153
41 Chattanooga 0.69 0.8235 0.6838 0.7536
42 Valparaiso 0.67 0.8201 0.8351 0.8276
43 Cincinnati 0.58 0.8129 0.865 0.8389
44 Wisconsin 0.47 0.8097 0.8548 0.8322
45 San Diego St. 0.46 0.8117 0.8239 0.8178
46 Temple 0.36 0.8083 0.7476 0.778
47 USC 0.24 0.8049 0.8287 0.8168
48 Monmouth 0.17 0.8049 0.7516 0.7783
49 Oregon St. 0.11 0.8023 0.7922 0.7972
50 Hawaii 0.04 0.8016 0.7797 0.7907
51 Wichita St. -0.07 0.7982 0.892 0.8451
52 Princeton -0.23 0.792 0.7515 0.7717
53 Yale -0.26 0.7911 0.8152 0.8031
54 Georgia Tech -0.37 0.7926 0.8003 0.7964
55 Florida St. -0.39 0.7919 0.8157 0.8038
56 UNC Wilmington -0.39 0.788 0.7401 0.7641
57 Akron -0.42 0.7873 0.7433 0.7653
58 St. Bonaventure -0.45 0.7871 0.7479 0.7675
59 VCU -0.47 0.788 0.8545 0.8212
60 Florida -0.49 0.79 0.8433 0.8167
61 Syracuse -0.73 0.7842 0.8382 0.8112
62 Georgia -0.84 0.7808 0.7885 0.7846
63 Vanderbilt -0.90 0.7806 0.8831 0.8319
64 Tulsa -0.92 0.7781 0.7887 0.7834
65 Virginia Tech -0.92 0.7809 0.7718 0.7763
66 Ohio St. -0.93 0.7802 0.7709 0.7755
67 Houston -0.95 0.7744 0.7851 0.7798
68 South Dakota St. -1.03 0.7663 0.7365 0.7514
69 Texas A&M Corpus Chris -1.03 0.7608 0.5264 0.6436
70 Stephen F. Austin -1.08 0.7508 0.7998 0.7753
71 Grand Canyon -1.13 0.7567 0.6127 0.6847
72 UC Irvine -1.14 0.7696 0.7134 0.7415
73 Hofstra -1.15 0.7689 0.7139 0.7414
74 UAB -1.23 0.7524 0.6393 0.6959
75 Stony Brook -1.24 0.7517 0.7127 0.7322
76 George Washington -1.25 0.7686 0.773 0.7708
77 Alabama -1.27 0.7725 0.7268 0.7497
78 Northwestern -1.64 0.7614 0.7675 0.7644
79 Marquette -1.72 0.7617 0.7096 0.7357
80 Fresno St. -1.85 0.7468 0.6627 0.7047
81 Kansas St. -1.86 0.7611 0.8132 0.7872
82 BYU -1.99 0.7469 0.8092 0.778
83 Mississippi -2.00 0.7519 0.7484 0.7501
84 Evansville -2.02 0.7418 0.7519 0.7469
85 LSU -2.04 0.7528 0.7609 0.7569
86 Davidson -2.08 0.7462 0.6977 0.722
87 Washington -2.11 0.7525 0.7961 0.7743
88 IPFW -2.35 0.7291 0.6048 0.667
89 Stanford -2.59 0.7384 0.7022 0.7203
90 Northern Iowa -2.61 0.7368 0.7382 0.7375
91 Creighton -2.69 0.7376 0.8244 0.781
92 Clemson -2.84 0.7321 0.8136 0.7728
93 Long Beach St. -2.84 0.7324 0.6842 0.7083
94 UT Arlington -3.11 0.6976 0.7065 0.7021
95 Oakland -3.28 0.7082 0.7208 0.7145
96 Iona -3.32 0.699 0.7168 0.7079
97 William & Mary -3.45 0.7009 0.72 0.7105
98 New Mexico St. -3.64 0.6727 0.6505 0.6616
99 Middle Tennessee -3.68 0.6711 0.5941 0.6326
100 Cal St. Bakersfield -3.74 0.6471 0.6569 0.652
101 Albany -3.79 0.6454 0.5901 0.6177
102 Boise St. -3.94 0.6918 0.7093 0.7006
103 Southern Illinois -3.98 0.6712 0.5748 0.623
104 UCLA -3.98 0.7078 0.7613 0.7346
105 James Madison -4.06 0.6791 0.712 0.6955
106 Weber St. -4.21 0.6184 0.5766 0.5975
107 Arizona St. -4.34 0.6979 0.7227 0.7103
108 Columbia -4.34 0.6523 0.6242 0.6383
109 Winthrop -4.41 0.6315 0.5363 0.5839
110 Green Bay -4.41 0.6799 0.6278 0.6538
111 North Carolina St. -4.48 0.6972 0.7522 0.7247
112 Louisiana Tech -4.48 0.6272 0.5323 0.5798
113 Penn St. -4.57 0.6896 0.598 0.6438
114 East Tennessee St. -4.67 0.657 0.5433 0.6001
115 UC Santa Barbara -4.71 0.669 0.6824 0.6757
116 Belmont -4.96 0.6379 0.592 0.615
117 Georgetown -4.96 0.6853 0.7784 0.7319
118 Memphis -5.00 0.6681 0.756 0.712
119 Montana -5.01 0.6171 0.5422 0.5796
120 Arkansas -5.06 0.6753 0.7533 0.7143
121 Ohio -5.07 0.6349 0.5961 0.6155
122 High Point -5.23 0.6047 0.557 0.5808
123 North Florida -5.35 0.6229 0.4749 0.5489
124 Nevada -5.47 0.6427 0.5686 0.6057
125 Pepperdine -5.51 0.6382 0.5973 0.6177
126 Nebraska -5.74 0.6674 0.7181 0.6927
127 Vermont -5.78 0.6193 0.5199 0.5696
128 Tennessee Tech -5.86 0.5885 0.4277 0.5081
129 Illinois St. -5.86 0.6371 0.5895 0.6133
130 Louisiana Monroe -5.86 0.61 0.5764 0.5932
131 Old Dominion -5.87 0.6173 0.6518 0.6346
132 UNC Asheville -5.87 0.5954 0.6336 0.6145
133 Wright St. -5.88 0.6334 0.5583 0.5959
134 Siena -5.89 0.614 0.6197 0.6168
135 Hampton -5.96 0.5547 0.3016 0.4282
136 Towson -5.96 0.6081 0.5473 0.5777
137 Tennessee St. -6.01 0.5508 0.4812 0.516
138 Richmond -6.12 0.6412 0.7 0.6706
139 Buffalo -6.19 0.6272 0.5835 0.6053
140 Rhode Island -6.25 0.6306 0.734 0.6823
141 Morehead St. -6.40 0.583 0.5677 0.5753
142 Mississippi St. -6.40 0.6312 0.7337 0.6825
143 Tennessee -6.41 0.6501 0.6836 0.6668
144 Northern Illinois -6.41 0.5882 0.5147 0.5515
145 Fordham -6.43 0.5945 0.5411 0.5678
146 Wake Forest -6.56 0.6273 0.6213 0.6243
147 Milwaukee -6.58 0.598 0.6302 0.6141
148 UNLV -6.60 0.621 0.6314 0.6262
149 Northeastern -6.65 0.6192 0.596 0.6076
150 Wagner -6.73 0.5004 0.4395 0.4699
151 Coastal Carolina -6.77 0.5282 0.4919 0.51
152 Fairfield -6.77 0.5856 0.4338 0.5097
153 Illinois -6.84 0.6375 0.6237 0.6306
154 Kent St. -6.86 0.5815 0.4849 0.5332
155 TCU -6.92 0.6297 0.5865 0.6081
156 College of Charleston -6.98 0.5872 0.6127 0.5999
157 Louisiana Lafayette -7.00 0.5668 0.6078 0.5873
158 Oklahoma St. -7.02 0.6211 0.7038 0.6624
159 North Dakota St. -7.10 0.5727 0.5355 0.5541
160 Incarnate Word -7.13 0.5335 0.3061 0.4198
161 New Mexico -7.19 0.5942 0.6276 0.6109
162 Nebraska Omaha -7.42 0.5486 0.5463 0.5474
163 New Hampshire -7.48 0.5198 0.3332 0.4265
164 Eastern Michigan -7.57 0.5823 0.5471 0.5647
165 Utah St. -7.67 0.5694 0.5774 0.5734
166 Texas Southern -7.78 0.5539 0.4224 0.4881
167 Idaho -7.84 0.5026 0.3832 0.4429
168 Southern -7.98 0.4925 0.3389 0.4157
169 Duquesne -8.13 0.5663 0.5346 0.5504
170 Elon -8.21 0.563 0.5108 0.5369
171 Ball St. -8.21 0.5075 0.5157 0.5116
172 South Carolina St. -8.37 0.4974 0.2679 0.3826
173 Detroit -8.41 0.5355 0.4815 0.5085
174 Florida Gulf Coast -8.67 0.4817 0.4599 0.4708
175 Marshall -8.73 0.5457 0.5384 0.5421
176 Georgia St. -8.75 0.4922 0.452 0.4721
177 Colorado St. -8.78 0.5482 0.5475 0.5478
178 San Francisco -8.82 0.5095 0.423 0.4663
179 NJIT -8.85 0.4921 0.3878 0.44
180 Murray St. -8.85 0.4916 0.4869 0.4893
181 Mercer -8.90 0.4981 0.4447 0.4714
182 Auburn -8.93 0.5499 0.4439 0.4969
183 Central Michigan -8.97 0.5129 0.5279 0.5204
184 Massachusetts -8.97 0.5503 0.493 0.5216
185 Tennessee Martin -9.01 0.4918 0.3797 0.4358
186 Bucknell -9.03 0.4436 0.4654 0.4545
187 Harvard -9.10 0.5111 0.4653 0.4882
188 Oral Roberts -9.13 0.5286 0.4709 0.4997
189 Indiana St. -9.30 0.5278 0.4762 0.502
190 Loyola Marymount -9.38 0.5179 0.3798 0.4488
191 Army -9.40 0.426 0.3403 0.3832
192 Radford -9.44 0.4824 0.3681 0.4252
193 Furman -9.52 0.489 0.4767 0.4828
194 Lehigh -9.56 0.4813 0.4449 0.4631
195 UTEP -9.59 0.4557 0.3744 0.415
196 Missouri -9.61 0.5254 0.5159 0.5207
197 Western Kentucky -9.61 0.5103 0.4721 0.4912
198 Toledo -9.67 0.4756 0.5937 0.5347
199 Jackson St. -9.69 0.4494 0.2986 0.374
200 Loyola Chicago -9.71 0.5101 0.4559 0.483
201 Sam Houston St. -9.73 0.4769 0.3736 0.4252
202 Western Carolina -9.86 0.5099 0.4148 0.4624
203 Fairleigh Dickinson -9.91 0.4301 0.2771 0.3536
204 DePaul -9.91 0.5113 0.4347 0.473
205 Gardner Webb -9.92 0.49 0.3518 0.4209
206 UCF -9.96 0.4942 0.4678 0.481
207 Navy -9.97 0.4301 0.3998 0.4149
208 Boston University -9.99 0.4242 0.3484 0.3863
209 Denver -10.12 0.4437 0.4474 0.4456
210 Wofford -10.15 0.4902 0.4151 0.4526
211 East Carolina -10.15 0.5162 0.4404 0.4783
212 Eastern Kentucky -10.40 0.4527 0.4097 0.4312
213 Washington St. -10.43 0.4934 0.449 0.4712
214 Saint Peter’s -10.48 0.4411 0.384 0.4125
215 Eastern Washington -10.60 0.4195 0.4046 0.4121
216 Houston Baptist -10.65 0.4511 0.2431 0.3471
217 North Dakota -10.68 0.4144 0.3963 0.4053
218 IUPUI -10.77 0.4866 0.3616 0.4241
219 Wyoming -10.85 0.4723 0.4716 0.4719
220 Norfolk St. -10.91 0.4365 0.3153 0.3759
221 Savannah St. -10.95 0.3907 0.1583 0.2745
222 Missouri St. -11.03 0.4759 0.3407 0.4083
223 Texas St. -11.05 0.4159 0.3816 0.3988
224 Idaho St. -11.07 0.3825 0.2434 0.3129
225 Tulane -11.09 0.4954 0.4135 0.4545
226 Austin Peay -11.10 0.4621 0.3724 0.4173
227 Air Force -11.26 0.4535 0.3207 0.3871
228 Western Illinois -11.28 0.3877 0.3324 0.3601
229 Seattle -11.41 0.3873 0.2275 0.3074
230 Alcorn St. -11.43 0.3508 0.1655 0.2581
231 Penn -11.48 0.3889 0.3042 0.3465
232 South Dakota -11.53 0.4411 0.3607 0.4009
233 Georgia Southern -11.54 0.4132 0.3596 0.3864
234 Cornell -11.78 0.3884 0.2433 0.3158
235 Bowling Green -11.86 0.4395 0.3612 0.4003
236 Jacksonville -11.90 0.3705 0.2519 0.3112
237 George Mason -12.05 0.4487 0.4118 0.4303
238 St. John’s -12.15 0.4396 0.3746 0.4071
239 Eastern Illinois -12.24 0.366 0.2675 0.3168
240 Manhattan -12.25 0.3971 0.3186 0.3578
241 Santa Clara -12.26 0.4227 0.3332 0.3779
242 UNC Greensboro -12.26 0.4048 0.3487 0.3767
243 Saint Louis -12.28 0.4397 0.3659 0.4028
244 Montana St. -12.29 0.3714 0.2857 0.3286
245 Western Michigan -12.29 0.4207 0.455 0.4378
246 LIU Brooklyn -12.35 0.2851 0.2233 0.2542
247 Colgate -12.37 0.3584 0.2975 0.3279
248 Boston College -12.38 0.4219 0.3515 0.3867
249 Cal Poly -12.41 0.4039 0.3968 0.4003
250 Utah Valley -12.43 0.3782 0.2286 0.3034
251 Minnesota -12.53 0.4151 0.451 0.4331
252 Dartmouth -12.59 0.3476 0.3371 0.3423
253 Portland -12.76 0.4125 0.3863 0.3994
254 South Alabama -12.80 0.4057 0.2808 0.3432
255 UMKC -12.82 0.386 0.2838 0.3349
256 Alabama St. -12.87 0.3363 0.2009 0.2686
257 Charlotte -12.87 0.4021 0.4197 0.4109
258 Sacramento St. -12.95 0.3314 0.2501 0.2908
259 Pacific -12.97 0.3492 0.3523 0.3507
260 UMass Lowell -13.03 0.3357 0.1704 0.253
261 La Salle -13.06 0.3988 0.2921 0.3454
262 Kennesaw St. -13.06 0.3881 0.2724 0.3303
263 Canisius -13.09 0.3916 0.3481 0.3698
264 St. Francis PA -13.14 0.3115 0.2052 0.2583
265 UC Davis -13.22 0.3559 0.3201 0.338
266 Miami OH -13.26 0.4005 0.3411 0.3708
267 Samford -13.34 0.3788 0.3493 0.3641
268 UC Riverside -13.42 0.375 0.3451 0.36
269 Liberty -13.44 0.3652 0.2264 0.2958
270 Sacred Heart -13.52 0.3189 0.1965 0.2577
271 St. Francis NY -13.58 0.2968 0.2399 0.2683
272 Bethune Cookman -13.60 0.3317 0.1792 0.2555
273 Mount St. Mary’s -13.61 0.3654 0.2818 0.3236
274 Rider -13.64 0.3831 0.3624 0.3728
275 Cal St. Northridge -13.68 0.3482 0.3209 0.3346
276 Youngstown St. -13.76 0.3799 0.2424 0.3111
277 Cal St. Fullerton -13.82 0.3417 0.2735 0.3076
278 Northern Kentucky -13.86 0.3488 0.2935 0.3211
279 Rutgers -13.86 0.3743 0.2477 0.311
280 Portland St. -13.98 0.3011 0.2845 0.2928
281 Arkansas St. -14.03 0.3444 0.2952 0.3198
282 San Diego -14.03 0.3417 0.2641 0.3029
283 American -14.10 0.3217 0.1836 0.2527
284 Abilene Christian -14.18 0.2891 0.1817 0.2354
285 Brown -14.35 0.2881 0.2553 0.2717
286 Holy Cross -14.48 0.3186 0.2487 0.2836
287 Campbell -14.56 0.2569 0.2092 0.233
288 FIU -14.74 0.2959 0.3434 0.3197
289 South Florida -14.78 0.3649 0.3556 0.3602
290 Rice -14.78 0.3187 0.2428 0.2807
291 North Texas -14.78 0.3187 0.2144 0.2666
292 Delaware -14.93 0.3093 0.2491 0.2792
293 Alabama A&M -14.95 0.2232 0.168 0.1956
294 Charleston Southern -15.04 0.2984 0.2049 0.2516
295 McNeese St. -15.08 0.269 0.1308 0.1999
296 Appalachian St. -15.11 0.3185 0.2822 0.3004
297 Presbyterian -15.30 0.2825 0.1566 0.2195
298 Northwestern St. -15.31 0.2436 0.1429 0.1933
299 North Carolina Central -15.44 0.255 0.1884 0.2217
300 Maryland Eastern Shore -15.56 0.3143 0.1598 0.2371
301 VMI -15.60 0.2735 0.1813 0.2274
302 Southeastern Louisiana -15.63 0.3078 0.1628 0.2353
303 Cleveland St. -15.71 0.3161 0.2245 0.2703
304 Lamar -15.73 0.2209 0.1602 0.1905
305 San Jose St. -15.74 0.293 0.2876 0.2903
306 Central Arkansas -15.78 0.234 0.1435 0.1887
307 Loyola MD -15.94 0.2581 0.2185 0.2383
308 Lipscomb -15.96 0.292 0.2478 0.2699
309 Coppin St. -16.08 0.2787 0.1422 0.2105
310 Howard -16.10 0.2497 0.1423 0.196
311 Quinnipiac -16.22 0.2453 0.208 0.2267
312 New Orleans -16.27 0.2214 0.1622 0.1918
313 Nicholls St. -16.34 0.318 0.1378 0.2279
314 Northern Colorado -16.35 0.2517 0.1847 0.2182
315 Troy -16.42 0.2645 0.2266 0.2455
316 SIU Edwardsville -16.62 0.206 0.1735 0.1897
317 Stetson -16.86 0.2797 0.2537 0.2667
318 Drexel -16.97 0.2514 0.3121 0.2818
319 Binghamton -16.98 0.2264 0.1535 0.19
320 UT Rio Grande Valley -17.04 0.2238 0.0905 0.1572
321 Southern Miss -17.08 0.1922 0.187 0.1896
322 Robert Morris -17.15 0.2451 0.1876 0.2163
323 Drake -17.20 0.2469 0.2679 0.2574
324 Maine -17.27 0.214 0.1157 0.1649
325 Morgan St. -17.32 0.2256 0.1775 0.2016
326 USC Upstate -17.33 0.2369 0.1528 0.1949
327 The Citadel -17.43 0.2327 0.1574 0.1951
328 Hartford -17.51 0.2575 0.169 0.2133
329 Arkansas Pine Bluff -17.64 0.2689 0.0909 0.1799
330 Bryant -17.66 0.2246 0.1006 0.1626
331 North Carolina A&T -17.73 0.2186 0.1105 0.1646
332 Jacksonville St. -17.83 0.2179 0.1979 0.2079
333 Longwood -18.19 0.2291 0.2148 0.2219
334 Bradley -18.19 0.2196 0.1439 0.1817
335 Prairie View A&M -18.23 0.2105 0.1108 0.1606
336 Florida A&M -18.25 0.1378 0.0632 0.1005
337 Marist -18.38 0.1815 0.1917 0.1866
338 Florida Atlantic -18.57 0.2365 0.1925 0.2145
339 Southern Utah -18.78 0.174 0.1128 0.1434
340 Northern Arizona -18.93 0.1686 0.1056 0.1371
341 Niagara -19.01 0.2051 0.1702 0.1877
342 Southeast Missouri St. -19.11 0.1446 0.1141 0.1294
343 Illinois Chicago -19.41 0.1549 0.1242 0.1395
344 Lafayette -19.47 0.151 0.1433 0.1472
345 Delaware St. -19.67 0.1829 0.0734 0.1282
346 Grambling St. -19.74 0.1567 0.0848 0.1208
347 UMBC -20.37 0.1592 0.136 0.1476
348 Mississippi Valley St. -21.23 0.1898 0.1007 0.1452
349 Chicago St. -21.29 0.1317 0.0841 0.1079
350 UTSA -21.53 0.1325 0.1055 0.119
351 Central Connecticut -21.77 0.0744 0.0613 0.0679
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