Utah = New Mexico State?

Sorry for going back to the well, but this is the tweet that keeps on giving:

I took the time to solve for this using the KenPom ratings, and our answer is… New Mexico State (Bottom Team is at home):

Utah 65.87
New Mexico St. 62.24
Utah 66.81
Dayton 66.67
Dayton 62.57
New Mexico St. 62.67

Those are the expected points in three games. I used Dayton as the control to show roughly how similar a home game vs. Utah is to a road game at New Mexico State. Dayton would be about 0.04 points worse off facing Utah at home. It might seem odd that a game at home vs. Utah is similar to a game at New Mexico State given Utah would be a clear favorite at New Mexico State. I was wondering about that, but the issue is, Dayton (or any other team) is better at home than on the road, and that needs to be taken into account as well. Taking this accurately into account is not something a person can easily do without seeing the math. Case in point:

I believe Greg, but that means the committee is overvaluing home wins and undervaluing road wins. Case in point:

Utah 69.39
Evansville 67.61
Utah 69.04
Florida 70.08
Florida 69.30
Evansville 70.35

Florida would be a favorite at home vs. Utah, but an underdog at Evansville, despite Evansville being an underdog at home to Utah. I don’t want to presume to read the mind of the committee, but my best guess is they are undervaluing the difficulty of winning on the road for this reason. It makes sense that if Utah would be a favorite at Evansville, a home win against Utah is more impressive than a road win at Evansville, but that is not the case.

Teams that play a significant portion of their schedule at home are going to be overrated using this type of thinking, whereas teams without that kind of scheduling power are going to be underrated. WAB does not make that mistake.

As for Saint Mary’s, their harshest measure (BPI) has them 1.32 Wins-Above-Bubble. Their collective body of work is going to be one of the best 36 after all the automatic bids have been decided. Whether that matters on Sunday is anyone’s guess.

Rank School KenPom Sagarin Massey BPI WAB avg
1 Kansas 9.4 9.5 8.79 9.14 9.21
2 Villanova 7.5 7.55 7.98 7.96 7.75
3 Virginia 6.94 7.25 7 7.38 7.14
4 Oklahoma 7.13 7.11 7 6.96 7.05
5 Xavier 6.67 6.98 7.34 7.15 7.04
6 North Carolina 6.03 6.45 5.98 6.54 6.25
7 Miami FL 5.96 6.35 5.87 6.38 6.14
8 Michigan St. 5.75 6.16 6.11 6 6.01
9 West Virginia 6.21 5.99 5.89 5.88 5.99
10 Oregon 4.95 5.02 4.83 5.48 5.07
11 Utah 4.84 4.86 4.68 5.39 4.94
12 Indiana 3.91 4.38 4.05 4.18 4.13
13 Purdue 3.82 4.51 4.04 4.03 4.10
14 Maryland 3.88 4.33 4.07 4.02 4.08
15 Texas A&M 3.89 4.14 3.56 4.55 4.04
16 SMU 3.77 3.74 3.9 4.04 3.86
17 Duke 3.64 3.94 3.55 3.98 3.78
18 Louisville 3.69 3.92 3.38 3.99 3.75
19 Iowa St. 3.56 3.67 3.41 3.41 3.51
20 Kentucky 3.18 3.6 2.84 3.82 3.36
21 Arizona 3.14 3.29 3.09 3.77 3.32
22 Texas 3.21 3.48 3.3 3.25 3.31
23 Baylor 2.98 2.88 2.65 2.7 2.80
24 Iowa 2.6 3.11 2.58 2.78 2.77
25 Dayton 2.41 2.24 2.45 2.78 2.47
26 Seton Hall 2.13 2.19 2.47 2.34 2.28
27 California 2.17 2.18 2.01 2.5 2.22
28 South Carolina 2.03 2.07 1.68 2.49 2.07
29 Providence 1.96 2.18 2.02 2.11 2.07
30 Butler 1.69 1.77 2.13 1.98 1.89
31 Texas Tech 1.93 1.97 1.75 1.78 1.86
32 Gonzaga 1.69 2.21 1.59 1.78 1.82
33 Arkansas Little Rock 2.24 1.46 1.64 1.34 1.67
34 Saint Mary’s 1.64 1.77 1.65 1.32 1.60
35 Notre Dame 1.41 1.73 1.4 1.78 1.58
36 Saint Joseph’s 1.26 1.09 1.17 1.53 1.26
37 Cincinnati 0.99 0.9 0.88 1.39 1.04
38 Wisconsin 0.92 1.38 0.66 1.17 1.03
39 Colorado 0.82 0.94 0.71 1.25 0.93
40 Valparaiso 0.99 0.32 0.95 0.55 0.70
41 Pittsburgh 0.55 0.78 0.47 0.97 0.69
42 Chattanooga 1.22 0.21 0.77 0.44 0.66
43 Michigan 0.35 0.79 -0.01 0.56 0.42
44 Temple 0.3 0.3 0.22 0.55 0.34
45 Connecticut 0.16 0.19 0.36 0.61 0.33
46 USC 0.35 0.18 0.15 0.51 0.30
47 Florida St. 0.06 0.37 0 0.54 0.24
48 Oregon St. 0.21 0.06 0.07 0.44 0.20
49 St. Bonaventure 0.22 0.01 0.17 0.33 0.18
50 Monmouth 0.63 0.06 0.31 -0.32 0.17
51 San Diego St. 0.1 0.07 -0.02 -0.04 0.03
52 Houston 0 -0.18 -0.18 0.32 -0.01
53 Wichita St. 0.08 0.01 -0.01 -0.24 -0.04
54 Syracuse -0.34 -0.08 -0.3 0.01 -0.18
55 Vanderbilt -0.37 -0.07 -0.66 0.1 -0.25
56 Princeton 0.11 -0.29 -0.3 -0.6 -0.27
57 Yale 0.02 -0.22 -0.32 -0.6 -0.28
58 Tulsa -0.23 -0.39 -0.5 0 -0.28
59 Hawaii 0 -0.41 0 -0.74 -0.29
60 UNC Wilmington 0.08 -1.02 -0.08 -0.51 -0.38
61 UAB -0.06 -0.46 -0.46 -0.78 -0.44
62 UC Irvine -0.34 -0.69 -0.28 -1.08 -0.60
63 Florida -0.62 -0.37 -1.25 -0.2 -0.61
64 Georgia Tech -0.85 -0.42 -0.85 -0.32 -0.61
65 VCU -0.77 -0.73 -0.76 -0.31 -0.64
66 Akron -0.32 -1.03 -0.57 -0.77 -0.67
67 George Washington -0.91 -1.02 -0.87 -0.69 -0.87
68 South Dakota St. -0.42 -1.28 -0.76 -1.41 -0.97
69 Virginia Tech -1.2 -0.83 -1.22 -0.85 -1.03
70 Texas A&M Corpus Chris -0.6 -1.32 -0.99 -1.44 -1.09
71 Stephen F. Austin -0.74 -1.25 -1.05 -1.36 -1.10
72 Ohio St. -1.07 -0.72 -1.61 -1.04 -1.11
73 Grand Canyon -0.8 -1.22 -1.11 -1.36 -1.12
74 Hofstra -0.71 -1.79 -0.91 -1.13 -1.14
75 Northwestern -1.25 -0.86 -1.34 -1.21 -1.17
76 Stony Brook -0.78 -1.39 -1.01 -1.69 -1.22
77 Alabama -1.41 -1.28 -1.8 -0.85 -1.34
78 Mississippi -1.46 -1.28 -1.78 -0.95 -1.37
79 Marquette -1.64 -1.54 -1.23 -1.35 -1.44
80 Georgia -1.77 -1.6 -2.03 -1.1 -1.63
81 BYU -2 -1.82 -2.02 -2.19 -2.01
82 Stanford -2.18 -2.04 -2.25 -1.61 -2.02
83 Washington -2.12 -2 -2.21 -1.77 -2.03
84 Kansas St. -1.98 -1.98 -2.09 -2.14 -2.05
85 Evansville -1.79 -1.95 -2.1 -2.38 -2.06
86 Clemson -2.44 -2.11 -2.41 -1.93 -2.22
87 Fresno St. -2.13 -2.18 -2.26 -2.38 -2.24
88 Creighton -2.42 -2.32 -1.98 -2.32 -2.26
89 IPFW -1.73 -2.63 -2.05 -2.72 -2.28
90 LSU -2.4 -2.21 -2.73 -1.89 -2.31
91 Davidson -2.57 -2.62 -2.57 -2.13 -2.47
92 Northern Iowa -2.41 -2.52 -2.86 -2.87 -2.67
93 UT Arlington -2.61 -3.42 -3.22 -3.44 -3.17
94 Boise St. -3.09 -3.05 -3.53 -3.32 -3.25
95 Iona -2.71 -3.48 -3.22 -3.69 -3.28
96 Long Beach St. -3.1 -3.33 -3.09 -3.72 -3.31
97 Oakland -3.03 -3.6 -3.56 -3.46 -3.41
98 William & Mary -3.07 -4.08 -3.37 -3.44 -3.49
99 UCLA -3.62 -3.5 -3.69 -3.22 -3.51
100 Arizona St. -3.78 -3.72 -3.98 -3.34 -3.71
101 New Mexico St. -3.47 -3.89 -3.65 -3.99 -3.75
102 Louisiana Tech -3.45 -3.81 -3.85 -3.95 -3.77
103 Cal St. Bakersfield -3.55 -3.91 -3.69 -4.02 -3.79
104 Albany -3.34 -3.97 -3.56 -4.36 -3.81
105 Middle Tennessee -3.61 -4.08 -4 -4.03 -3.93
106 Penn St. -4.08 -3.57 -4.14 -4 -3.95
107 Southern Illinois -3.64 -3.85 -4 -4.4 -3.97
108 North Carolina St. -4.31 -3.91 -3.97 -3.81 -4.00
109 James Madison -3.61 -4.61 -3.78 -4.15 -4.04
110 UC Santa Barbara -4.01 -4.6 -3.96 -4.47 -4.26
111 Green Bay -4.03 -4.66 -4.2 -4.37 -4.32
112 Columbia -3.94 -4.33 -4.4 -4.73 -4.35
113 Ohio -4.1 -4.74 -4.35 -4.33 -4.38
114 Weber St. -4.08 -4.49 -4.25 -4.71 -4.38
115 Winthrop -4.1 -4.88 -4.29 -4.4 -4.42
116 Arkansas -4.74 -4.5 -5.12 -3.9 -4.57
117 East Tennessee St. -4.19 -5.15 -4.67 -4.66 -4.67
118 Georgetown -4.98 -4.98 -4.54 -4.67 -4.79
119 Belmont -4.65 -5.09 -4.83 -5.16 -4.93
120 Montana -4.91 -5.22 -5.08 -5.49 -5.18
121 Nevada -5.13 -5.12 -5.3 -5.33 -5.22
122 High Point -4.9 -5.68 -5.06 -5.27 -5.23
123 Memphis -5.36 -5.49 -5.5 -5.07 -5.36
124 North Florida -5.2 -5.55 -5.28 -5.53 -5.39
125 Pepperdine -5.45 -5.28 -5.53 -5.73 -5.50
126 Rhode Island -5.6 -5.66 -5.66 -5.33 -5.56
127 Northern Illinois -5.29 -5.87 -5.59 -5.6 -5.59
128 Mississippi St. -5.84 -5.7 -6.17 -5.33 -5.76
129 Fordham -5.8 -5.88 -5.85 -5.57 -5.78
130 Richmond -5.89 -5.89 -5.94 -5.4 -5.78
131 Louisiana Monroe -5.31 -5.99 -5.88 -6.03 -5.80
132 Vermont -5.41 -5.98 -5.7 -6.16 -5.81
133 Tennessee Tech -5.53 -6.06 -5.68 -6.02 -5.82
134 Wright St. -5.52 -6.19 -5.57 -6.04 -5.83
135 Siena -5.25 -6.1 -5.61 -6.46 -5.86
136 Illinois St. -5.64 -5.78 -5.98 -6.09 -5.87
137 Nebraska -6.1 -5.62 -6.05 -5.84 -5.90
138 UNC Asheville -5.58 -6.26 -5.81 -6 -5.91
139 Towson -5.51 -6.52 -5.68 -6.09 -5.95
140 UNLV -5.84 -5.87 -6.1 -6.02 -5.96
141 Tennessee St. -5.69 -6.21 -5.91 -6.3 -6.03
142 Hampton -5.74 -6.26 -6.02 -6.2 -6.06
143 Old Dominion -5.98 -6.33 -6.29 -6.33 -6.23
144 Morehead St. -6.03 -6.51 -6.28 -6.66 -6.37
145 New Mexico -6.32 -6.29 -6.54 -6.52 -6.42
146 Oklahoma St. -6.32 -6.39 -6.45 -6.59 -6.44
147 Milwaukee -6.2 -6.78 -6.17 -6.68 -6.46
148 Tennessee -6.69 -6.29 -6.97 -5.96 -6.48
149 Wake Forest -6.71 -6.23 -6.84 -6.13 -6.48
150 Buffalo -6.33 -6.81 -6.59 -6.38 -6.53
151 Wagner -6.34 -6.89 -6.46 -7.24 -6.73
152 Northeastern -6.13 -7.28 -6.78 -6.78 -6.74
153 Coastal Carolina -6.48 -7.18 -6.62 -6.84 -6.78
154 Fairfield -6.21 -6.94 -6.7 -7.34 -6.80
155 Kent St. -6.6 -7.17 -6.8 -6.88 -6.86
156 Texas Southern -6.54 -7.05 -6.85 -7.07 -6.88
157 Louisiana Lafayette -6.5 -7.2 -7.07 -7.15 -6.98
158 Eastern Michigan -6.68 -7.16 -7.2 -6.93 -6.99
159 College of Charleston -6.56 -7.64 -6.77 -7.01 -7.00
160 North Dakota St. -6.67 -7.49 -6.85 -7.39 -7.10
161 Incarnate Word -6.73 -7.27 -7.08 -7.43 -7.13
162 Illinois -7.26 -7.03 -7.24 -7.06 -7.15
163 TCU -7.09 -7.05 -7.33 -7.17 -7.16
164 Idaho -6.74 -7.35 -7.02 -7.55 -7.17
165 Duquesne -7.36 -7.35 -7.33 -6.86 -7.23
166 Utah St. -7.22 -7.19 -7.38 -7.34 -7.28
167 Nebraska Omaha -6.99 -7.7 -7.17 -7.62 -7.37
168 New Hampshire -7.11 -7.56 -7.38 -7.92 -7.49
169 Georgia St. -7.24 -8.09 -7.94 -8.08 -7.84
170 Central Michigan -7.75 -8.39 -8.07 -8 -8.05
171 Southern -7.73 -8.26 -8.15 -8.26 -8.10
172 Elon -7.78 -8.75 -7.7 -8.22 -8.11
173 Marshall -7.86 -8.22 -8.27 -8.21 -8.14
174 Ball St. -7.85 -8.46 -8.11 -8.27 -8.17
175 Auburn -8.39 -8.23 -8.77 -7.77 -8.29
176 Detroit -8.08 -8.58 -8.23 -8.56 -8.36
177 South Carolina St. -8.12 -8.66 -8.33 -8.54 -8.41
178 Colorado St. -8.34 -8.39 -8.48 -8.54 -8.44
179 Lehigh -8.25 -8.7 -8.59 -9.09 -8.66
180 Florida Gulf Coast -8.4 -8.82 -8.55 -8.86 -8.66
181 Murray St. -8.5 -9.05 -8.71 -9.04 -8.83
182 Massachusetts -8.87 -9.07 -8.89 -8.47 -8.83
183 San Francisco -8.83 -8.61 -8.85 -9.12 -8.85
184 NJIT -8.48 -9.07 -8.68 -9.24 -8.87
185 UTEP -8.56 -8.9 -8.92 -9.09 -8.87
186 Mercer -8.36 -9.26 -8.8 -9.07 -8.87
187 Sam Houston St. -8.49 -9.16 -8.91 -9.17 -8.93
188 Tennessee Martin -8.57 -9.11 -8.79 -9.26 -8.93
189 Bucknell -8.61 -9.14 -8.85 -9.55 -9.04
190 Oral Roberts -8.7 -9.47 -8.96 -9.07 -9.05
191 UCF -8.96 -9.31 -9.11 -8.86 -9.06
192 Harvard -8.83 -9.14 -9.13 -9.46 -9.14
193 Western Kentucky -8.95 -9.22 -9.23 -9.35 -9.19
194 East Carolina -9.08 -9.55 -9.43 -8.87 -9.23
195 Indiana St. -8.89 -9.22 -9.35 -9.54 -9.25
196 DePaul -9.51 -9.4 -9.05 -9.04 -9.25
197 Loyola Marymount -9.41 -9.1 -9.4 -9.55 -9.37
198 Army -9.02 -9.5 -9.26 -9.9 -9.42
199 Radford -9.17 -9.98 -9.35 -9.36 -9.47
200 Furman -8.95 -10.01 -9.4 -9.7 -9.52
201 Missouri -9.76 -9.57 -10.02 -9.01 -9.59
202 Toledo -9.27 -10.07 -9.48 -9.79 -9.65
203 Loyola Chicago -9.44 -9.52 -9.84 -9.88 -9.67
204 Jackson St. -9.36 -9.94 -9.56 -9.96 -9.71
205 Eastern Washington -9.39 -9.87 -9.54 -10.07 -9.72
206 Western Carolina -9.47 -10.3 -9.9 -9.78 -9.86
207 Fairleigh Dickinson -9.49 -10.09 -9.67 -10.33 -9.90
208 Washington St. -10.04 -9.84 -10.18 -9.54 -9.90
209 North Dakota -9.53 -10.08 -9.77 -10.24 -9.91
210 Gardner Webb -9.68 -10.2 -9.95 -9.84 -9.92
211 Navy -9.45 -10.13 -9.77 -10.53 -9.97
212 Boston University -9.53 -10.05 -9.79 -10.66 -10.01
213 Wyoming -9.86 -10.11 -10.11 -10.12 -10.05
214 Denver -9.59 -10.42 -9.84 -10.37 -10.06
215 Houston Baptist -9.66 -10.28 -9.91 -10.43 -10.07
216 Norfolk St. -9.84 -10.14 -10.1 -10.21 -10.07
217 Savannah St. -9.82 -10.19 -10.05 -10.41 -10.12
218 Wofford -9.7 -10.47 -10.12 -10.21 -10.13
219 Idaho St. -9.88 -10.3 -10.03 -10.55 -10.19
220 Eastern Kentucky -10.05 -10.62 -10.28 -10.59 -10.39
221 Alcorn St. -10.06 -10.6 -10.38 -10.72 -10.44
222 Texas St. -9.89 -10.71 -10.54 -10.75 -10.47
223 Saint Peter’s -9.97 -10.66 -10.32 -11.02 -10.49
224 Air Force -10.5 -10.49 -10.55 -10.53 -10.52
225 Georgia Southern -10.03 -10.79 -10.64 -10.72 -10.55
226 Seattle -10.37 -10.88 -10.61 -10.89 -10.69
227 IUPUI -10.39 -11 -10.57 -10.89 -10.71
228 Missouri St. -10.7 -10.81 -11.08 -11.16 -10.94
229 Austin Peay -10.66 -11.26 -10.87 -11.33 -11.03
230 Western Illinois -10.85 -11.52 -10.99 -11.38 -11.19
231 George Mason -11.11 -11.4 -11.31 -10.92 -11.19
232 Bowling Green -11.08 -11.75 -11.31 -11.4 -11.39
233 St. John’s -11.64 -11.45 -11.22 -11.27 -11.40
234 South Dakota -11.03 -11.79 -11.23 -11.61 -11.42
235 Utah Valley -11.27 -11.66 -11.44 -11.7 -11.52
236 Penn -11.25 -11.63 -11.52 -11.72 -11.53
237 Tulane -11.49 -11.75 -11.82 -11.33 -11.60
238 Minnesota -11.86 -11.51 -11.68 -11.73 -11.70
239 Cal Poly -11.54 -11.95 -11.5 -12.06 -11.76
240 Cornell -11.42 -11.76 -11.87 -12.05 -11.78
241 Saint Louis -11.82 -11.88 -11.95 -11.5 -11.79
242 Jacksonville -11.51 -12.06 -11.68 -12.22 -11.87
243 Alabama St. -11.54 -12.26 -11.91 -12.1 -11.95
244 Sacramento St. -11.71 -12.19 -11.94 -12.48 -12.08
245 UMKC -11.82 -12.29 -12.05 -12.27 -12.11
246 Charlotte -12.03 -12.19 -11.96 -12.35 -12.13
247 South Alabama -11.58 -12.41 -12.23 -12.34 -12.14
248 Eastern Illinois -11.8 -12.34 -12.03 -12.44 -12.15
249 Western Michigan -11.85 -12.57 -12.28 -12.17 -12.22
250 Santa Clara -12.31 -11.96 -12.27 -12.43 -12.24
251 UNC Greensboro -11.85 -12.69 -12.15 -12.34 -12.26
252 Manhattan -11.72 -12.36 -12.22 -12.74 -12.26
253 Montana St. -11.94 -12.49 -12.15 -12.7 -12.32
254 LIU Brooklyn -11.86 -12.45 -12.09 -12.9 -12.33
255 Colgate -12 -12.4 -12.21 -12.79 -12.35
256 Boston College -12.57 -12.25 -12.8 -12.08 -12.43
257 Miami OH -12.22 -12.85 -12.48 -12.44 -12.50
258 UC Davis -12.26 -12.71 -12.21 -12.97 -12.54
259 La Salle -12.59 -12.78 -12.63 -12.25 -12.56
260 Dartmouth -12.17 -12.74 -12.57 -12.96 -12.61
261 Bethune Cookman -12.27 -12.81 -12.53 -12.93 -12.64
262 Portland -12.8 -12.51 -12.77 -12.89 -12.74
263 UC Riverside -12.39 -13 -12.35 -13.25 -12.75
264 Pacific -12.98 -12.79 -12.95 -13.14 -12.97
265 Kennesaw St. -12.78 -13.22 -12.95 -13.17 -13.03
266 UMass Lowell -12.7 -13.14 -12.86 -13.42 -13.03
267 St. Francis PA -12.72 -13.24 -12.9 -13.52 -13.10
268 Canisius -12.45 -13.48 -12.85 -13.66 -13.11
269 Portland St. -12.78 -13.37 -13.01 -13.56 -13.18
270 Rutgers -13.38 -12.9 -13.67 -13.16 -13.28
271 Cal St. Fullerton -13.03 -13.48 -12.91 -13.78 -13.30
272 Samford -12.86 -13.68 -13.26 -13.56 -13.34
273 Liberty -13.12 -13.93 -13.31 -13.44 -13.45
274 Sacred Heart -13.08 -13.76 -13.29 -14 -13.53
275 St. Francis NY -13.22 -13.67 -13.32 -14.14 -13.59
276 Mount St. Mary’s -13.19 -13.8 -13.4 -13.99 -13.60
277 Rider -13.15 -13.86 -13.5 -14.14 -13.66
278 Cal St. Northridge -13.36 -13.86 -13.29 -14.16 -13.67
279 Youngstown St. -13.51 -13.94 -13.35 -13.95 -13.69
280 Northern Kentucky -13.62 -14.02 -13.46 -14.01 -13.78
281 FIU -13.48 -13.94 -13.82 -14.06 -13.83
282 Rice -13.68 -13.99 -14.03 -14.08 -13.95
283 North Texas -13.69 -13.95 -14.03 -14.13 -13.95
284 Arkansas St. -13.45 -14.28 -14.05 -14.29 -14.02
285 San Diego -14 -13.76 -14.02 -14.31 -14.02
286 McNeese St. -13.74 -14.17 -14.17 -14.24 -14.08
287 American -13.56 -14.25 -13.98 -14.58 -14.09
288 Alabama A&M -13.72 -14.26 -14.01 -14.44 -14.11
289 Abilene Christian -13.87 -14.3 -14.18 -14.58 -14.23
290 South Florida -14.29 -14.39 -14.48 -13.9 -14.27
291 Brown -14.1 -14.41 -14.42 -14.57 -14.38
292 North Carolina Central -14.11 -14.59 -14.44 -14.66 -14.45
293 Campbell -14.19 -15.02 -14.36 -14.62 -14.55
294 Holy Cross -14.1 -14.58 -14.5 -15.24 -14.61
295 Southeastern Louisiana -14.44 -14.81 -14.82 -14.86 -14.73
296 San Jose St. -14.87 -14.89 -14.97 -15.06 -14.95
297 Delaware -14.51 -15.71 -14.69 -14.99 -14.98
298 Charleston Southern -14.66 -15.39 -14.94 -14.91 -14.98
299 Coppin St. -14.84 -15.25 -15.09 -15.23 -15.10
300 Appalachian St. -14.43 -15.46 -15.22 -15.42 -15.13
301 Presbyterian -14.93 -15.73 -15.13 -15.28 -15.27
302 Northwestern St. -14.94 -15.38 -15.35 -15.46 -15.28
303 New Orleans -14.91 -15.45 -15.26 -15.61 -15.31
304 Nicholls St. -15.14 -15.62 -15.61 -15.63 -15.50
305 VMI -15.13 -15.95 -15.48 -15.73 -15.57
306 Cleveland St. -15.37 -16.03 -15.58 -15.69 -15.67
307 Maryland Eastern Shore -15.36 -15.61 -15.92 -15.81 -15.68
308 Central Arkansas -15.29 -15.93 -15.73 -15.97 -15.73
309 Lamar -15.3 -15.96 -15.72 -16.1 -15.77
310 Lipscomb -15.6 -16.26 -15.7 -16.14 -15.93
311 Loyola MD -15.45 -16.06 -15.77 -16.47 -15.94
312 UT Rio Grande Valley -15.74 -16.3 -16.01 -16.38 -16.11
313 Howard -15.77 -16.26 -16.1 -16.46 -16.15
314 Quinnipiac -15.61 -16.41 -16.03 -16.85 -16.23
315 Northern Colorado -16.01 -16.52 -16.23 -16.7 -16.37
316 Troy -15.75 -16.71 -16.39 -16.65 -16.38
317 Morgan St. -16.01 -16.69 -16.4 -16.82 -16.48
318 SIU Edwardsville -16.38 -16.77 -16.42 -16.76 -16.58
319 Stetson -16.43 -17.05 -16.56 -17.17 -16.80
320 Drexel -16.52 -17.83 -16.67 -16.92 -16.99
321 Binghamton -16.61 -17.24 -17.03 -17.43 -17.08
322 Southern Miss -16.8 -17.15 -17.15 -17.34 -17.11
323 Robert Morris -16.68 -17.38 -16.93 -17.55 -17.14
324 Drake -16.91 -17.07 -17.27 -17.5 -17.19
325 Maine -16.86 -17.42 -17.01 -17.74 -17.26
326 USC Upstate -17.02 -17.45 -17.16 -17.53 -17.29
327 Prairie View A&M -16.99 -17.39 -17.29 -17.51 -17.30
328 The Citadel -16.85 -17.78 -17.28 -17.6 -17.38
329 Hartford -17.1 -17.66 -17.43 -18.02 -17.55
330 Bryant -17.35 -17.75 -17.25 -18.09 -17.61
331 Arkansas Pine Bluff -17.35 -17.81 -17.93 -17.93 -17.76
332 North Carolina A&T -17.46 -17.83 -17.76 -17.99 -17.76
333 Jacksonville St. -17.46 -18.09 -17.67 -17.91 -17.78
334 Florida Atlantic -17.54 -17.93 -18.04 -18.08 -17.90
335 Longwood -17.81 -18.56 -18.03 -18.3 -18.18
336 Bradley -17.84 -18.13 -18.31 -18.44 -18.18
337 Florida A&M -17.85 -18.34 -18.16 -18.53 -18.22
338 Marist -17.78 -18.55 -18.17 -19.01 -18.38
339 Southern Utah -18.42 -18.79 -18.64 -19.06 -18.73
340 Northern Arizona -18.45 -19.07 -18.85 -19.1 -18.87
341 Niagara -18.46 -19.28 -18.87 -19.63 -19.06
342 Southeast Missouri St. -18.87 -19.26 -19.03 -19.3 -19.12
343 Illinois Chicago -19.09 -19.64 -19.15 -19.62 -19.38
344 Lafayette -19.08 -19.55 -19.35 -19.98 -19.49
345 Grambling St. -19.42 -19.92 -19.74 -19.89 -19.74
346 Delaware St. -19.58 -19.89 -19.52 -20.08 -19.77
347 UMBC -19.9 -20.56 -20.08 -20.83 -20.34
348 Mississippi Valley St. -20.01 -20.5 -20.31 -20.65 -20.37
349 Chicago St. -20.29 -20.75 -20.4 -20.68 -20.53
350 UTSA -21.14 -21.55 -21.47 -21.75 -21.48
351 Central Connecticut -21.39 -21.85 -21.56 -22.19 -21.75

 

Advertisements
3 comments
  1. Mike said:

    Great post! Off of the topic, but would you mind walking a simple math mind as myself through one of your expected team points calculations? Apologize in advance if you have already covered this in another post.

    • No problem Mike. For the KenPom numbers it’s fairly straightforward. There is a road penalty of 1.4%, and a corresponding home bump of 1.4%. So for example, on a neutral court Holy Cross would have an offensive efficiency of 96.5, and a defensive efficiency of 105.9. Lehigh would have an OE of 104.9, and a DE of 104.9. However, as they are playing at Lehigh tonight, Holy Cross will have an OE of 95.15, and a DE of 107.38. Lehigh will be the reverse, having an OE of 106.37, and a DE of 103.43. It’s good to be at home. As for Tempo, there is a standard formula to apply it (Team A * Team B / Constant).

      • Mike said:

        Thanks Seth. So the Constant in your Tempo equation would be the expected average Tempo of a game?

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: