A potential seed list

Here Pyth is a 3-way split between KenPom Pyth, Sagarin Predictor, and Massey Power. Resume is the implied Pyth derived from the record and schedule strength. In other words, that is the Pyth of a team we’d expect to put up the record against your schedule that you’ve actually put up. Wichita State is an example of a team that has massively under-performed. Dayton is the opposite, although not as extreme. You can also see the difference between Michigan State and Xavier. Xavier’s resume may be better (at the moment), but Michigan State is the much scarier team.

Rank Team Pyth Resume 50-50 Split
1 Kansas 0.9501 0.9533 0.9517
2 Villanova 0.9448 0.9422 0.9435
3 Virginia 0.9458 0.925 0.9354
4 Michigan St. 0.9485 0.9187 0.9336
5 Oklahoma 0.9277 0.9252 0.9264
6 North Carolina 0.9359 0.9149 0.9254
7 Xavier 0.9107 0.9369 0.9238
8 West Virginia 0.9359 0.9086 0.9223
9 Miami FL 0.9097 0.9149 0.9123
10 Indiana 0.9131 0.8897 0.9014
11 Oregon 0.9002 0.9008 0.9005
12 Louisville 0.9185 0.8754 0.897
13 Purdue 0.9095 0.8834 0.8965
14 SMU 0.8988 0.8907 0.8947
15 Kentucky 0.9159 0.8669 0.8914
16 Arizona 0.9098 0.8701 0.89
17 Duke 0.9056 0.8717 0.8887
18 Utah 0.8815 0.8939 0.8877
19 Texas A&M 0.8899 0.8809 0.8854
20 Maryland 0.8866 0.8826 0.8846
21 Iowa St. 0.8973 0.867 0.8822
22 Iowa 0.9043 0.8572 0.8807
23 Baylor 0.8754 0.8558 0.8656
24 Texas 0.8691 0.8603 0.8647
25 California 0.8834 0.8454 0.8644
26 Gonzaga 0.8767 0.8444 0.8606
27 Seton Hall 0.8624 0.8512 0.8568
28 Butler 0.8630 0.8412 0.8521
29 Saint Mary’s 0.8503 0.8509 0.8506
30 Wichita St. 0.8898 0.8007 0.8453
31 Wisconsin 0.8638 0.8227 0.8433
32 Cincinnati 0.8601 0.8215 0.8408
33 Notre Dame 0.8473 0.8328 0.8401
34 Vanderbilt 0.8845 0.7919 0.8382
35 Texas Tech 0.8304 0.8387 0.8346
36 Connecticut 0.8600 0.8029 0.8315
37 South Carolina 0.8120 0.8472 0.8296
38 Pittsburgh 0.8411 0.8138 0.8275
39 Dayton 0.7937 0.8609 0.8273
40 Providence 0.8023 0.8463 0.8243
41 Valparaiso 0.8256 0.8226 0.8241
42 Saint Joseph’s 0.8067 0.8308 0.8187
43 Michigan 0.8139 0.8109 0.8124
44 Syracuse 0.8298 0.7947 0.8122
45 Florida St. 0.8196 0.8031 0.8114
46 Arkansas Little Rock 0.7603 0.8609 0.8106
47 San Diego St. 0.8167 0.8013 0.809
48 VCU 0.8365 0.7799 0.8082
49 Florida 0.8305 0.7856 0.8081
50 USC 0.8075 0.805 0.8063
51 Colorado 0.7887 0.8184 0.8035
52 Yale 0.8074 0.794 0.8007
53 Houston 0.7972 0.7967 0.797
54 Tulsa 0.8005 0.7908 0.7957
55 Oregon St. 0.7806 0.8026 0.7916
56 Georgia Tech 0.7886 0.7845 0.7865
57 Creighton 0.8236 0.7465 0.785
58 Kansas St. 0.8105 0.7546 0.7825
59 Monmouth 0.7445 0.8093 0.7769
60 Clemson 0.8084 0.743 0.7757
61 Stephen F. Austin 0.7958 0.754 0.7749
62 BYU 0.8014 0.7481 0.7747
63 Ohio St. 0.7699 0.7765 0.7732
64 Hawaii 0.7482 0.7946 0.7714
65 St. Bonaventure 0.7386 0.804 0.7713
66 Princeton 0.7444 0.7945 0.7694
67 George Washington 0.7607 0.7747 0.7677
68 Northwestern 0.7566 0.7728 0.7647
69 Temple 0.7228 0.8064 0.7646
70 Virginia Tech 0.7495 0.7757 0.7626
71 UNC Wilmington 0.7248 0.7897 0.7572
72 Washington 0.7645 0.7488 0.7566
73 Mississippi 0.7496 0.7625 0.756
74 Georgia 0.7563 0.7546 0.7554
75 Akron 0.7240 0.7797 0.7518
76 South Dakota St. 0.7231 0.7739 0.7485
77 UC Irvine 0.7050 0.7879 0.7464
78 Evansville 0.7416 0.7441 0.7429
79 Chattanooga 0.6609 0.8247 0.7428
80 UCLA 0.7702 0.7142 0.7422
81 Alabama 0.7145 0.7649 0.7397
82 LSU 0.7354 0.7408 0.7381
83 Marquette 0.7106 0.7651 0.7379
84 Northern Iowa 0.7374 0.7371 0.7372
85 Hofstra 0.7041 0.7694 0.7368
86 Stony Brook 0.7059 0.7596 0.7327
87 Stanford 0.7129 0.7474 0.7301
88 Georgetown 0.7657 0.6803 0.723
89 UAB 0.6550 0.7869 0.721
90 North Carolina St. 0.7352 0.7008 0.718
91 Boise St. 0.7133 0.7129 0.7131
92 Arizona St. 0.7180 0.708 0.713
93 Iona 0.7173 0.7061 0.7117
94 Arkansas 0.7410 0.677 0.709
95 Oakland 0.7096 0.7083 0.7089
96 William & Mary 0.7057 0.6986 0.7022
97 Davidson 0.6664 0.7279 0.6971
98 Long Beach St. 0.6719 0.7199 0.6959
99 UT Arlington 0.6915 0.6976 0.6945
100 James Madison 0.6973 0.6813 0.6893
101 Mississippi St. 0.7341 0.6397 0.6869
102 Rhode Island 0.7270 0.642 0.6845
103 UC Santa Barbara 0.6869 0.6762 0.6816
104 Memphis 0.7130 0.6491 0.6811
105 Grand Canyon 0.6006 0.7603 0.6805
106 Fresno St. 0.6227 0.7335 0.6781
107 IPFW 0.5997 0.7369 0.6683
108 Oklahoma St. 0.7024 0.6341 0.6682
109 Nebraska 0.6861 0.6459 0.666
110 Richmond 0.6843 0.635 0.6597
111 New Mexico St. 0.6416 0.67 0.6558
112 Green Bay 0.6269 0.6839 0.6554
113 Penn St. 0.5879 0.7033 0.6456
114 Texas A&M Corpus Chris 0.5268 0.7632 0.645
115 Cal St. Bakersfield 0.6361 0.6453 0.6407
116 UNLV 0.6431 0.6307 0.6369
117 Columbia 0.6127 0.658 0.6354
118 Tennessee 0.6400 0.6253 0.6326
119 Albany 0.5906 0.6553 0.623
120 Siena 0.6184 0.625 0.6217
121 Wake Forest 0.6146 0.6264 0.6205
122 Southern Illinois 0.5631 0.6776 0.6204
123 Pepperdine 0.5916 0.6419 0.6168
124 Milwaukee 0.6260 0.6068 0.6164
125 Ohio 0.5833 0.6476 0.6154
126 Illinois St. 0.5915 0.6392 0.6154
127 New Mexico 0.6172 0.6127 0.615
128 Middle Tennessee 0.5653 0.6567 0.611
129 Belmont 0.5746 0.6425 0.6086
130 Northeastern 0.5924 0.6207 0.6066
131 UNC Asheville 0.6165 0.5948 0.6057
132 Wright St. 0.5615 0.6384 0.6
133 Nevada 0.5580 0.6382 0.5981
134 East Tennessee St. 0.5390 0.6568 0.5979
135 Illinois 0.5874 0.6068 0.5971
136 Louisiana Tech 0.5441 0.6492 0.5967
137 Louisiana Monroe 0.5739 0.6164 0.5951
138 College of Charleston 0.5989 0.5867 0.5928
139 Old Dominion 0.5901 0.5931 0.5916
140 Weber St. 0.5696 0.6111 0.5904
141 TCU 0.5637 0.6088 0.5862
142 Louisiana Lafayette 0.5961 0.5662 0.5811
143 Winthrop 0.5271 0.6304 0.5788
144 Towson 0.5426 0.6108 0.5767
145 Vermont 0.5279 0.623 0.5755
146 Fordham 0.5432 0.6043 0.5738
147 Morehead St. 0.5562 0.5893 0.5728
148 Buffalo 0.5385 0.6046 0.5716
149 Duquesne 0.5597 0.5831 0.5714
150 High Point 0.5354 0.6053 0.5704
151 Northern Illinois 0.5228 0.6088 0.5658
152 Montana 0.5151 0.6089 0.562
153 Eastern Michigan 0.5298 0.5935 0.5617
154 North Dakota St. 0.5402 0.5775 0.5588
155 Utah St. 0.5498 0.5646 0.5572
156 Nebraska Omaha 0.5412 0.5558 0.5485
157 Marshall 0.5435 0.5491 0.5463
158 North Florida 0.4618 0.6234 0.5426
159 Elon 0.5101 0.5646 0.5373
160 Central Michigan 0.5375 0.5346 0.5361
161 Toledo 0.5871 0.4789 0.533
162 Kent St. 0.4705 0.5814 0.526
163 Colorado St. 0.5118 0.5356 0.5237
164 Tennessee St. 0.4842 0.5562 0.5202
165 Fairfield 0.4461 0.593 0.5195
166 Texas Southern 0.4513 0.5761 0.5137
167 Ball St. 0.5143 0.5115 0.5129
168 Missouri 0.5006 0.5192 0.5099
169 Detroit 0.4782 0.5407 0.5095
170 Auburn 0.4590 0.5563 0.5076
171 Massachusetts 0.4840 0.529 0.5065
172 Tennessee Tech 0.4163 0.594 0.5052
173 Oral Roberts 0.4782 0.5321 0.5052
174 Indiana St. 0.4755 0.5341 0.5048
175 Coastal Carolina 0.4785 0.5285 0.5035
176 Lehigh 0.4775 0.5109 0.4942
177 Murray St. 0.4879 0.4974 0.4926
178 Harvard 0.4699 0.5142 0.4921
179 DePaul 0.4601 0.5222 0.4912
180 Wyoming 0.4927 0.4888 0.4907
181 Georgia St. 0.4606 0.5207 0.4907
182 UCF 0.4640 0.5127 0.4883
183 Loyola Chicago 0.4610 0.515 0.488
184 East Carolina 0.4417 0.533 0.4874
185 Wagner 0.4530 0.5143 0.4836
186 Furman 0.4728 0.4923 0.4826
187 Western Kentucky 0.4612 0.499 0.4801
188 Washington St. 0.4609 0.4974 0.4791
189 Florida Gulf Coast 0.4655 0.487 0.4762
190 San Francisco 0.4225 0.5121 0.4673
191 Mercer 0.4262 0.5034 0.4648
192 Western Carolina 0.4192 0.5083 0.4638
193 Bucknell 0.4709 0.4553 0.4631
194 Wofford 0.4267 0.4926 0.4596
195 Loyola Marymount 0.3901 0.5211 0.4556
196 Idaho 0.3905 0.516 0.4533
197 Denver 0.4492 0.4536 0.4514
198 Minnesota 0.4719 0.4293 0.4506
199 Tennessee Martin 0.3880 0.5025 0.4453
200 George Mason 0.4261 0.4629 0.4445
201 Sam Houston St. 0.3950 0.4916 0.4433
202 NJIT 0.3854 0.4979 0.4417
203 Western Michigan 0.4558 0.4233 0.4396
204 Eastern Kentucky 0.4199 0.4571 0.4385
205 New Hampshire 0.3397 0.5278 0.4337
206 IUPUI 0.3750 0.4913 0.4331
207 Eastern Washington 0.4175 0.4455 0.4315
208 Austin Peay 0.3896 0.4705 0.4301
209 Incarnate Word 0.3148 0.5398 0.4273
210 Navy 0.4055 0.443 0.4242
211 Saint Peter’s 0.3931 0.45 0.4215
212 Gardner Webb 0.3525 0.4886 0.4205
213 Cal Poly 0.4247 0.4162 0.4205
214 Radford 0.3611 0.4792 0.4202
215 St. John’s 0.3811 0.4529 0.417
216 Missouri St. 0.3504 0.4827 0.4166
217 Tulane 0.3826 0.4499 0.4163
218 Georgia Southern 0.3901 0.4407 0.4154
219 Hampton 0.2852 0.545 0.4151
220 UTEP 0.3615 0.4651 0.4133
221 Charlotte 0.4230 0.4007 0.4119
222 South Dakota 0.3741 0.4494 0.4117
223 Portland 0.3962 0.4153 0.4057
224 North Dakota 0.3771 0.4271 0.4021
225 Texas St. 0.3814 0.4143 0.3979
226 Boston University 0.3537 0.4379 0.3958
227 Bowling Green 0.3582 0.4292 0.3937
228 Southern 0.3026 0.4807 0.3917
229 Air Force 0.3173 0.4657 0.3915
230 Saint Louis 0.3549 0.4259 0.3904
231 Boston College 0.3521 0.4203 0.3862
232 Army 0.3341 0.4362 0.3852
233 Santa Clara 0.3441 0.426 0.3851
234 Rider 0.3788 0.3892 0.384
235 Norfolk St. 0.3187 0.4491 0.3839
236 UNC Greensboro 0.3604 0.4063 0.3834
237 Miami OH 0.3511 0.4102 0.3807
238 Canisius 0.3571 0.3993 0.3782
239 South Carolina St. 0.2659 0.4884 0.3771
240 UC Riverside 0.3615 0.3882 0.3748
241 Samford 0.3612 0.3826 0.3719
242 Manhattan 0.3381 0.4044 0.3713
243 Western Illinois 0.3416 0.3958 0.3687
244 Jackson St. 0.2921 0.4442 0.3681
245 Fairleigh Dickinson 0.2868 0.4406 0.3637
246 UC Davis 0.3567 0.3694 0.3631
247 Pacific 0.3646 0.3519 0.3582
248 South Florida 0.3625 0.344 0.3533
249 Penn 0.3135 0.3893 0.3514
250 Houston Baptist 0.2544 0.4483 0.3514
251 Dartmouth 0.3462 0.3523 0.3493
252 South Alabama 0.2927 0.4058 0.3492
253 UMKC 0.3117 0.3867 0.3492
254 Cal St. Northridge 0.3418 0.356 0.3489
255 Idaho St. 0.2823 0.408 0.3451
256 Montana St. 0.3030 0.3768 0.3399
257 Colgate 0.3099 0.3679 0.3389
258 FIU 0.3631 0.3148 0.3389
259 Kennesaw St. 0.2854 0.3916 0.3385
260 Mount St. Mary’s 0.2958 0.3727 0.3343
261 Northern Kentucky 0.3068 0.3516 0.3292
262 Eastern Illinois 0.2765 0.3764 0.3264
263 Arkansas St. 0.3030 0.349 0.326
264 Cal St. Fullerton 0.3039 0.3477 0.3258
265 La Salle 0.2688 0.3806 0.3247
266 Cornell 0.2552 0.393 0.3241
267 Jacksonville 0.2643 0.3799 0.3221
268 Utah Valley 0.2418 0.4002 0.321
269 Rutgers 0.2560 0.3843 0.3201
270 Youngstown St. 0.2481 0.3827 0.3154
271 Sacramento St. 0.2730 0.3535 0.3132
272 San Diego 0.2790 0.3459 0.3125
273 Seattle 0.2298 0.3913 0.3105
274 San Jose St. 0.3145 0.3039 0.3092
275 Portland St. 0.2977 0.3166 0.3072
276 Appalachian St. 0.2927 0.3216 0.3071
277 Rice 0.2640 0.3322 0.2981
278 Liberty 0.2303 0.3646 0.2974
279 Alabama St. 0.2307 0.3563 0.2935
280 Drexel 0.3298 0.2501 0.29
281 Savannah St. 0.1674 0.4054 0.2864
282 Delaware 0.2635 0.3079 0.2857
283 Holy Cross 0.2533 0.3152 0.2842
284 Alcorn St. 0.1812 0.3818 0.2815
285 Stetson 0.2741 0.2881 0.2811
286 St. Francis NY 0.2524 0.3089 0.2807
287 Brown 0.2680 0.2898 0.2789
288 Lipscomb 0.2587 0.2969 0.2778
289 North Texas 0.2223 0.3327 0.2775
290 Bethune Cookman 0.1971 0.3565 0.2768
291 Cleveland St. 0.2340 0.3178 0.2759
292 LIU Brooklyn 0.2412 0.303 0.2721
293 Sacred Heart 0.2148 0.327 0.2709
294 St. Francis PA 0.2179 0.3229 0.2704
295 Drake 0.2834 0.251 0.2672
296 UMass Lowell 0.1843 0.3428 0.2635
297 American 0.1959 0.3306 0.2633
298 Troy 0.2429 0.2701 0.2565
299 Charleston Southern 0.2062 0.3001 0.2532
300 Loyola MD 0.2371 0.2662 0.2517
301 North Carolina Central 0.2082 0.2764 0.2423
302 Maryland Eastern Shore 0.1682 0.315 0.2416
303 Quinnipiac 0.2255 0.2546 0.24
304 Southeastern Louisiana 0.1616 0.3126 0.2371
305 Campbell 0.2123 0.259 0.2356
306 VMI 0.1902 0.277 0.2336
307 Florida Atlantic 0.2199 0.2446 0.2323
308 Abilene Christian 0.1709 0.2926 0.2318
309 Longwood 0.2227 0.2313 0.227
310 Nicholls St. 0.1334 0.3185 0.226
311 Robert Morris 0.1993 0.252 0.2257
312 Northern Colorado 0.1949 0.2562 0.2255
313 Coppin St. 0.1514 0.2974 0.2244
314 Hartford 0.1846 0.2624 0.2235
315 Presbyterian 0.1600 0.2841 0.222
316 McNeese St. 0.1446 0.2904 0.2175
317 Jacksonville St. 0.2112 0.2214 0.2163
318 Morgan St. 0.1853 0.2385 0.2119
319 New Orleans 0.1781 0.2406 0.2093
320 Alabama A&M 0.1774 0.2372 0.2073
321 USC Upstate 0.1621 0.2425 0.2023
322 The Citadel 0.1644 0.2382 0.2013
323 Niagara 0.1883 0.2097 0.199
324 Howard 0.1448 0.253 0.1989
325 Binghamton 0.1663 0.2308 0.1985
326 Northwestern St. 0.1493 0.2476 0.1985
327 SIU Edwardsville 0.1868 0.2096 0.1982
328 Marist 0.2068 0.1895 0.1982
329 Southern Miss 0.1933 0.1945 0.1939
330 Lamar 0.1627 0.2249 0.1938
331 Central Arkansas 0.1475 0.2395 0.1935
332 Bradley 0.1497 0.2222 0.186
333 Arkansas Pine Bluff 0.0953 0.2698 0.1826
334 Prairie View A&M 0.1256 0.225 0.1753
335 UT Rio Grande Valley 0.1066 0.2402 0.1734
336 Maine 0.1248 0.2213 0.173
337 North Carolina A&T 0.1180 0.2209 0.1695
338 Bryant 0.1061 0.2292 0.1677
339 Lafayette 0.1585 0.1558 0.1571
340 UMBC 0.1484 0.1657 0.1571
341 Southern Utah 0.1204 0.1794 0.1499
342 Illinois Chicago 0.1312 0.1582 0.1447
343 Mississippi Valley St. 0.1036 0.1844 0.144
344 Northern Arizona 0.1085 0.1728 0.1406
345 Southeast Missouri St. 0.1219 0.1463 0.1341
346 Delaware St. 0.0739 0.18 0.1269
347 UTSA 0.1157 0.1361 0.1259
348 Grambling St. 0.0866 0.1584 0.1225
349 Chicago St. 0.0872 0.1363 0.1118
350 Florida A&M 0.0670 0.144 0.1055
351 Central Connecticut 0.0668 0.0783 0.0726
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