2/17/2016: WAB!

Apparently Wordpess can display seven columns if they aren’t too wide. Sweet! This is the first time I am sorting teams by their average rank instead of their KenPom rank. Before I dig into that, let me offer a brief definition of WAB:

Wins-Above-Bubble. What I am doing is putting a bubble quality team (for each of the four ratings systems) through every team’s schedule and solving for the average amount of wins it would have. WAB is the actual amount of wins minus the amount of wins a bubble quality team would expect to have. Let’s use Princeton as an example:

Bubble team against Princeton’s schedule via KenPom: 15.51 wins on average

Bubble team against Princeton’s schedule via Sagarin: 15.96 wins on average

Bubble team against Princeton’s schedule via Massey: 15.81 wins on average

Bubble team against Princeton’s schedule via BPI: 16.17 wins on average

BPI is the opposite of KenPom in terms of how it views non-major conference teams. I haven’t done any tests to determine which is more accurate in this area, but in general I’d have more respect for Ken Pomeroy’s work than I would for a proprietary ESPN stat.

I’m going to go into this in more detail in a later post, but let me take a moment to talk about Bracketology. I am not a Bracketologist. I am not trying to predict what the committee will do. I have nothing but disgust towards the RPI. I could write another screed against it, but for now I’ll simply grab one I saw posted late last year:

http://basketballpredictions.blogspot.com/2015/12/how-to-inflate-your-resume-how-texas.html

If you are curious which teams are in poll position to make the tournament, check out http://www.bracketmatrix.com/. If you have questions about the process, I’ve found that Jerry Palm has tried to give an honest and detailed look at the process. He answers questions on Twitter via .

What I am trying to do is answer a very basic question: Which teams have the best resumes? Every game counts. You were missing your best player and you lost? Too bad. You lost by one point on a fluke buzzer-beater? Too bad. Refs hosed you on a replay with a bad stopwatch? Too bad Boise St. You lost, and as far as WAB is concerned, that’s all that matters. It also doesn’t care if you are blowing teams out by 30. A win is a win, regardless of score.

Every game is equal, but not in the way you normally think about it. Syracuse is playing Louisville tonight. Staying in the ACC, Miami is hosting Virginia Tech tonight. As far as WAB is concerned, that is four separate games:

Bubble @ Louisville

Syracuse @ Bubble

Bubble @ Miami

Virginia Tech @ Bubble

So how would those games look to WAB? Here is how they look via the KenPom ratings:

Opponent Bubble Pyth Opponent Pyth EBW% Net Value Win Net Value Loss
@ Louisville 0.7658 0.9369 0.1805 0.8195 -0.1805
Syracuse 0.8616 0.8013 0.6069 0.3931 -0.6069
@ Miami 0.7658 0.9267 0.2055 0.7945 -0.2055
Virginia Tech 0.8616 0.5781 0.8196 0.1804 -0.8196

Most likely Louisville will see their WAB jump by 0.39. Syracuse will likely see their WAB drop .18, but I’ll be ecstatic if they pull off the upset. That would be worth almost 0.82 WAB. You’ll note that Bubble teams are quite a bit stronger at home than they are on the road. That’s true for every team, to some degree.

The key point here is that the net value of every game is entirely dependent on how hard it is to win it. Road games are tougher than home games, and beating good teams is harder than beating mediocre or bad teams. The key is to solve for just how big the difference is. Beating weak teams on the road isn’t a given, which is why Arkansas Little-Rock is solidly net positive despite a soft schedule.

There’s a pretty clear top tier of the Villanova, Kansas, and Oklahoma. There’s also a sizable drop off after West Virginia. It’s also quite odd to see four ACC teams in a row from 5-8, but that’s just how the math is working out right now. (Oops. Apparently Maryland is no longer in the ACC.)

Here are the WAB standings, but remember: When it comes to how the committee decides which bubble teams earn admission into the dance, deserve’s got nothing to do with it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dpDkYZWeeVg

School KenPom Sagarin Massey BPI Average Rank
Villanova 6.02 5.96 6.36 6.25 6.15 1
Kansas 6.33 6.46 5.68 5.8 6.07 2
Oklahoma 6.17 6 5.92 5.98 6.02 3
Xavier 5.37 5.6 5.89 5.5 5.59 4
Virginia 5.23 5.41 5.29 5.18 5.28 5
Maryland 4.92 4.96 4.85 4.99 4.93 6
Miami FL 4.82 5.04 4.71 5.02 4.90 7
North Carolina 4.71 4.84 4.66 4.91 4.78 8
Michigan St. 4.38 4.76 4.73 4.55 4.61 9
Iowa 4.45 4.78 4.2 4.63 4.52 10
West Virginia 4.53 4.32 4.14 4.43 4.36 11
Dayton 3.46 3.23 3.39 3.54 3.41 12
SMU 3.29 3.25 3.45 3.47 3.37 13
Duke 3.3 3.34 3.21 3.2 3.26 14
Oregon 3.15 3.2 2.98 3.62 3.24 15
Iowa St. 3.29 3.3 2.93 3.13 3.16 16
Purdue 2.9 3.43 3.16 3.13 3.16 17
Arizona 3.11 3.19 3.02 3.01 3.08 18
Kentucky 2.72 2.82 2.4 3.09 2.76 19
Saint Joseph’s 2.55 2.45 2.47 2.74 2.55 20
Baylor 2.73 2.54 2.27 2.55 2.52 21
Texas A&M 2.4 2.37 1.97 3.03 2.44 22
South Carolina 2.5 2.35 2.12 2.66 2.41 23
Notre Dame 2.28 2.35 2.21 2.32 2.29 24
Louisville 2.23 2.29 1.98 2.35 2.21 25
Utah 2.28 2.27 2.12 2.12 2.20 26
Texas 2.33 2.58 2.26 1.42 2.15 27
Providence 1.97 2.16 2.02 2.04 2.05 28
Indiana 1.86 1.97 2.04 1.8 1.92 29
Arkansas Little Rock 2.23 1.61 1.74 1.49 1.77 30
USC 1.81 1.59 1.6 1.2 1.55 31
Monmouth 1.76 1.33 1.47 1.07 1.41 32
Michigan 1.32 1.57 1.07 1.43 1.35 33
Chattanooga 1.46 0.73 1.12 1.05 1.09 34
Florida 1.19 1.21 0.57 1.26 1.06 35
Syracuse 0.97 1.01 1.03 0.99 1.00 36
Butler 0.81 0.84 1.17 0.92 0.94 37
Pittsburgh 0.93 0.93 0.85 1.02 0.93 38
Colorado 0.95 1.06 0.85 0.73 0.90 39
Florida St. 0.91 0.97 0.81 0.85 0.89 40
Connecticut 0.76 0.67 0.97 1.11 0.88 41
Seton Hall 0.74 0.62 0.96 0.77 0.77 42
Cincinnati 0.59 0.53 0.62 0.92 0.67 43
Akron 0.82 0.27 0.62 0.89 0.65 44
Gonzaga 0.68 0.81 0.57 0.34 0.60 45
Texas Tech 0.71 0.62 0.36 0.45 0.54 46
Hawaii 0.65 0.4 0.53 0.17 0.44 47
Alabama 0.45 0.44 0.06 0.72 0.42 48
Valparaiso 0.57 0.11 0.51 0.19 0.35 49
Saint Mary’s 0.28 0.33 0.24 0 0.21 50
Stony Brook 0.45 0.05 0.26 -0.04 0.18 51
California 0.11 0.21 -0.01 0.39 0.18 52
Princeton 0.49 0.04 0.19 -0.17 0.14 53
Wisconsin -0.03 0.11 -0.29 0.22 0.00 54
Temple -0.09 0 -0.1 0.12 -0.02 55
Wichita St. 0 -0.16 -0.01 -0.22 -0.10 56
St. Bonaventure -0.06 -0.33 -0.13 -0.06 -0.15 57
VCU -0.28 -0.38 -0.25 -0.07 -0.25 58
UNC Wilmington -0.04 -0.75 -0.13 -0.12 -0.26 59
George Washington -0.25 -0.46 -0.21 -0.24 -0.29 60
Oregon St. -0.28 -0.36 -0.51 -0.15 -0.33 61
Yale -0.17 -0.3 -0.37 -0.56 -0.35 62
San Diego St. -0.25 -0.27 -0.41 -0.58 -0.38 63
Grand Canyon -0.23 -0.53 -0.41 -0.65 -0.46 64
UC Irvine -0.37 -0.62 -0.44 -0.97 -0.60 65
Kansas St. -0.56 -0.52 -0.78 -0.89 -0.69 66
Tulsa -0.63 -0.84 -0.91 -0.55 -0.73 67
LSU -0.72 -0.72 -1.03 -0.51 -0.75 68
Houston -0.75 -0.94 -0.88 -0.5 -0.77 69
Creighton -0.9 -0.8 -0.56 -0.91 -0.79 70
Washington -0.97 -0.92 -1.13 -0.57 -0.90 71
Evansville -0.9 -1.17 -1.08 -1.4 -1.14 72
UCLA -0.94 -0.95 -1.13 -1.54 -1.14 73
South Dakota St. -0.68 -1.32 -0.98 -1.7 -1.17 74
UAB -1.02 -1.32 -1.24 -1.25 -1.21 75
Ohio St. -1.36 -1.23 -1.12 -1.19 -1.23 76
IPFW -1 -1.61 -1.3 -1.11 -1.26 77
Clemson -1.39 -1.18 -1.34 -1.14 -1.26 78
Vanderbilt -1.4 -1.35 -1.78 -0.81 -1.34 79
Northwestern -1.34 -1.19 -1.56 -1.3 -1.35 80
BYU -1.32 -1.19 -1.42 -1.66 -1.40 81
Stephen F. Austin -1.39 -1.67 -1.66 -1.21 -1.48 82
Hofstra -1.27 -2.12 -1.44 -1.77 -1.65 83
Marquette -1.75 -1.88 -1.45 -1.6 -1.67 84
Georgia -1.76 -1.73 -2.04 -1.21 -1.69 85
Texas A&M Corpus Chris -1.36 -1.92 -1.72 -1.93 -1.73 86
Mississippi -1.77 -1.74 -2.05 -1.39 -1.74 87
James Madison -1.61 -2.45 -1.82 -1.93 -1.95 88
Stanford -2.1 -1.93 -2.26 -1.7 -2.00 89
William & Mary -1.71 -2.46 -1.93 -2.22 -2.08 90
Davidson -2.31 -2.41 -2.24 -1.99 -2.24 91
Georgia Tech -2.33 -2.2 -2.41 -2.11 -2.26 92
Southern Illinois -1.99 -2.22 -2.19 -2.71 -2.28 93
Georgetown -2.32 -2.52 -2.02 -2.26 -2.28 94
UT Arlington -1.88 -2.46 -2.33 -2.51 -2.30 95
Middle Tennessee -2.24 -2.6 -2.52 -2.29 -2.41 96
Louisiana Tech -2.22 -2.51 -2.53 -2.52 -2.45 97
Oakland -2.11 -2.57 -2.49 -2.98 -2.54 98
Arizona St. -2.49 -2.55 -2.68 -2.81 -2.63 99
Virginia Tech -2.65 -2.55 -2.73 -2.77 -2.68 100
Boise St. -2.68 -2.63 -2.97 -2.83 -2.78 101
Ohio -2.88 -3.5 -3.04 -2.63 -3.01 102
Albany -2.68 -3.22 -2.85 -3.54 -3.07 103
Nebraska -3.29 -3.02 -3.18 -3.11 -3.15 104
Long Beach St. -2.99 -3.32 -3.11 -3.53 -3.24 105
Fresno St. -3.31 -3.4 -3.43 -3.48 -3.41 106
Belmont -3.18 -3.56 -3.36 -3.57 -3.42 107
Columbia -3.11 -3.47 -3.4 -3.71 -3.42 108
Tennessee Tech -3.1 -3.64 -3.32 -3.65 -3.43 109
Cal St. Bakersfield -3.27 -3.47 -3.38 -3.59 -3.43 110
Winthrop -3.17 -3.74 -3.35 -3.45 -3.43 111
North Carolina St. -3.67 -3.38 -3.4 -3.6 -3.51 112
Pepperdine -3.41 -3.33 -3.6 -3.75 -3.52 113
Northern Illinois -3.52 -3.94 -3.59 -3.05 -3.53 114
College of Charleston -3.2 -3.98 -3.36 -3.59 -3.53 115
Northern Iowa -3.41 -3.65 -3.59 -3.68 -3.58 116
Nevada -3.6 -3.64 -3.73 -3.76 -3.68 117
Tennessee St. -3.44 -3.87 -3.59 -3.94 -3.71 118
Kent St. -3.85 -4.17 -3.88 -2.96 -3.72 119
Richmond -3.69 -3.75 -3.78 -3.88 -3.78 120
Siena -3.41 -3.99 -3.68 -4.27 -3.84 121
New Mexico -3.82 -3.74 -4.01 -3.87 -3.86 122
Montana -3.59 -3.74 -3.74 -4.46 -3.88 123
Penn St. -4.08 -3.7 -3.82 -3.96 -3.89 124
Louisiana Lafayette -3.46 -4.11 -3.98 -4.05 -3.90 125
New Mexico St. -3.74 -4.14 -3.88 -4.11 -3.97 126
Weber St. -3.74 -4.01 -3.88 -4.24 -3.97 127
Memphis -4.01 -4.1 -4.13 -3.79 -4.01 128
Arkansas -4.2 -4.18 -4.67 -3.91 -4.24 129
Duquesne -4.38 -4.39 -4.32 -4.02 -4.28 130
Wake Forest -4.45 -4.14 -4.59 -3.98 -4.29 131
Mercer -4.16 -4.8 -4.51 -3.98 -4.36 132
Illinois St. -4.2 -4.43 -4.37 -4.62 -4.41 133
Southern -4.19 -4.53 -4.51 -4.46 -4.42 134
Towson -4.14 -4.84 -4.29 -4.7 -4.49 135
Oklahoma St. -4.32 -4.43 -4.58 -4.67 -4.50 136
Tennessee -4.68 -4.38 -4.98 -4.14 -4.55 137
North Florida -4.39 -4.68 -4.54 -4.62 -4.56 138
East Tennessee St. -4.35 -5.06 -4.67 -4.69 -4.69 139
Ball St. -4.72 -5.26 -4.86 -4.06 -4.73 140
UNC Asheville -4.52 -4.99 -4.74 -4.82 -4.77 141
Green Bay -4.63 -5.12 -4.63 -4.93 -4.83 142
UC Santa Barbara -4.56 -5.12 -4.61 -5.27 -4.89 143
Rhode Island -4.86 -5.02 -4.91 -4.78 -4.89 144
Buffalo -4.89 -5.33 -5.04 -4.32 -4.90 145
High Point -4.83 -5.36 -5 -5.03 -5.06 146
Nebraska Omaha -4.84 -5.36 -5.07 -5.17 -5.11 147
Iona -4.73 -5.25 -5.09 -5.46 -5.13 148
UNLV -5.11 -5.1 -5.29 -5.16 -5.17 149
Milwaukee -5.03 -5.48 -4.95 -5.5 -5.24 150
Illinois -5.38 -5.32 -5.34 -5.19 -5.31 151
Hampton -5.1 -5.49 -5.34 -5.43 -5.34 152
TCU -5.14 -5.12 -5.47 -6.01 -5.44 153
Utah St. -5.42 -5.37 -5.55 -5.61 -5.49 154
Navy -5.18 -5.64 -5.43 -5.95 -5.55 155
Toledo -5.43 -6.08 -5.43 -5.36 -5.58 156
Coastal Carolina -5.28 -5.79 -5.43 -5.82 -5.58 157
North Dakota St. -5.27 -5.84 -5.43 -5.81 -5.59 158
Fordham -5.65 -5.83 -5.73 -5.49 -5.68 159
Mississippi St. -5.86 -5.84 -6.22 -5.52 -5.86 160
New Hampshire -5.55 -5.95 -5.81 -6.17 -5.87 161
Old Dominion -5.75 -6.04 -5.96 -5.83 -5.90 162
Elon -5.59 -6.44 -5.61 -5.98 -5.91 163
Wright St. -5.66 -6.16 -5.7 -6.13 -5.91 164
Georgia St. -5.52 -6.09 -6.04 -6.16 -5.95 165
Colorado St. -5.92 -5.9 -6.03 -5.98 -5.96 166
Fairfield -5.59 -6.07 -5.99 -6.37 -6.01 167
Wagner -5.74 -6.15 -5.86 -6.47 -6.06 168
Marshall -5.84 -6.23 -6.09 -6.08 -6.06 169
Incarnate Word -5.9 -6.14 -6.13 -6.32 -6.12 170
Morehead St. -6.01 -6.3 -6.09 -6.42 -6.21 171
Northeastern -5.95 -6.8 -6.41 -6.01 -6.29 172
NJIT -5.94 -6.47 -6.15 -6.63 -6.30 173
Texas Southern -6.07 -6.44 -6.39 -6.31 -6.30 174
San Francisco -6.25 -6.12 -6.37 -6.56 -6.33 175
Furman -5.92 -6.72 -6.29 -6.38 -6.33 176
Auburn -6.46 -6.42 -6.82 -6.05 -6.44 177
Eastern Washington -6.35 -6.57 -6.4 -6.68 -6.50 178
UCF -6.47 -6.65 -6.48 -6.44 -6.51 179
Vermont -6.21 -6.64 -6.47 -6.83 -6.54 180
Idaho -6.17 -6.74 -6.45 -6.83 -6.55 181
DePaul -6.89 -6.81 -6.53 -6.06 -6.57 182
Massachusetts -6.63 -6.78 -6.6 -6.35 -6.59 183
Louisiana Monroe -6.2 -6.86 -6.75 -7.12 -6.73 184
Eastern Michigan -6.74 -7.18 -6.96 -6.27 -6.79 185
Radford -6.63 -7.3 -6.82 -6.78 -6.88 186
Houston Baptist -6.64 -7.08 -6.77 -7.17 -6.92 187
Detroit -6.76 -7.05 -6.9 -7.01 -6.93 188
Missouri -7.16 -7.15 -7.31 -6.62 -7.06 189
Central Michigan -6.84 -7.43 -6.97 -7.04 -7.07 190
Indiana St. -6.9 -7.23 -7.04 -7.23 -7.10 191
Oral Roberts -6.87 -7.6 -7.13 -7.17 -7.19 192
Boston University -6.98 -7.4 -7.14 -7.93 -7.36 193
Washington St. -7.46 -7.28 -7.62 -7.34 -7.43 194
UTEP -7.22 -7.57 -7.49 -7.5 -7.45 195
Murray St. -7.24 -7.69 -7.42 -7.78 -7.53 196
South Carolina St. -7.29 -7.86 -7.46 -7.64 -7.56 197
Sam Houston St. -7.29 -7.76 -7.61 -7.71 -7.59 198
Tennessee Martin -7.36 -7.81 -7.58 -7.91 -7.67 199
Penn -7.46 -7.76 -7.56 -8.25 -7.76 200
Idaho St. -7.55 -7.8 -7.67 -8.24 -7.82 201
Wofford -7.6 -8.08 -7.96 -7.82 -7.87 202
Jackson St. -7.63 -8.08 -7.77 -8.07 -7.89 203
Cornell -7.7 -7.93 -7.97 -8.1 -7.93 204
Florida Gulf Coast -7.66 -8.09 -7.87 -8.1 -7.93 205
Army -7.72 -8.03 -7.87 -8.3 -7.98 206
Loyola Chicago -7.92 -8.07 -8.06 -8.13 -8.05 207
East Carolina -7.89 -8.43 -8.13 -7.75 -8.05 208
Norfolk St. -7.9 -8.17 -8.09 -8.23 -8.10 209
Western Kentucky -7.89 -8.19 -8.1 -8.28 -8.12 210
Boston College -8.32 -8.15 -8.48 -8.04 -8.25 211
Tulane -8.23 -8.46 -8.53 -8.11 -8.33 212
Loyola Marymount -8.38 -8.06 -8.41 -8.51 -8.34 213
Fairleigh Dickinson -8.08 -8.48 -8.18 -8.71 -8.36 214
Air Force -8.35 -8.36 -8.42 -8.34 -8.37 215
Bucknell -8.01 -8.45 -8.22 -8.88 -8.39 216
Saint Peter’s -8.02 -8.44 -8.34 -8.76 -8.39 217
Gardner Webb -8.24 -8.62 -8.47 -8.27 -8.40 218
Wyoming -8.28 -8.49 -8.54 -8.45 -8.44 219
Manhattan -8.15 -8.44 -8.48 -8.71 -8.45 220
IUPUI -8.25 -8.7 -8.38 -8.45 -8.45 221
St. Francis PA -8.25 -8.61 -8.36 -8.79 -8.50 222
North Dakota -8.17 -8.57 -8.34 -8.94 -8.51 223
Georgia Southern -8.13 -8.67 -8.61 -8.71 -8.53 224
Missouri St. -8.31 -8.5 -8.6 -8.83 -8.56 225
Cal Poly -8.33 -8.7 -8.47 -8.76 -8.57 226
Bowling Green -8.66 -9.13 -8.76 -7.9 -8.61 227
Alcorn St. -8.34 -8.77 -8.56 -8.84 -8.63 228
Seattle -8.35 -8.64 -8.48 -9.1 -8.64 229
George Mason -8.48 -8.93 -8.7 -8.5 -8.65 230
Harvard -8.51 -8.63 -8.65 -8.92 -8.68 231
Colgate -8.63 -8.91 -8.81 -9.19 -8.89 232
Western Illinois -8.59 -9.2 -8.68 -9.13 -8.90 233
Jacksonville -8.71 -9.22 -8.93 -8.77 -8.91 234
Eastern Kentucky -8.57 -9.11 -8.81 -9.15 -8.91 235
Texas St. -8.48 -9.12 -8.96 -9.16 -8.93 236
South Dakota -8.64 -9.26 -8.91 -9.06 -8.97 237
Denver -8.72 -9.4 -8.93 -9.34 -9.10 238
Montana St. -8.8 -9.25 -8.98 -9.37 -9.10 239
Lehigh -8.87 -9.24 -9.13 -9.49 -9.18 240
Saint Louis -9.2 -9.33 -9.36 -9.05 -9.24 241
St. John’s -9.45 -9.24 -9.13 -9.14 -9.24 242
Arkansas St. -8.93 -9.53 -9.44 -9.66 -9.39 243
Savannah St. -9.15 -9.44 -9.34 -9.64 -9.39 244
Sacramento St. -9.29 -9.6 -9.47 -10.12 -9.62 245
UMKC -9.33 -9.81 -9.54 -9.8 -9.62 246
UC Davis -9.49 -9.79 -9.53 -10 -9.70 247
Western Carolina -9.54 -10.09 -9.74 -9.65 -9.76 248
LIU Brooklyn -9.5 -9.85 -9.68 -10.27 -9.83 249
Charlotte -9.77 -9.86 -9.66 -10.2 -9.87 250
South Alabama -9.39 -10.2 -9.98 -10.21 -9.95 251
Utah Valley -9.72 -10.02 -9.9 -10.22 -9.97 252
Minnesota -10.13 -9.88 -10.03 -10.04 -10.02 253
Liberty -9.91 -10.49 -10.18 -9.65 -10.06 254
Mount St. Mary’s -9.67 -10.13 -9.84 -10.74 -10.10 255
UMass Lowell -9.91 -10.33 -10.09 -10.52 -10.21 256
Dartmouth -10.03 -10.33 -10.22 -10.52 -10.28 257
Western Michigan -10 -10.64 -10.21 -10.34 -10.30 258
FIU -10.09 -10.5 -10.35 -10.3 -10.31 259
Alabama A&M -10.22 -10.62 -10.37 -10.56 -10.44 260
UC Riverside -10.19 -10.63 -10.2 -10.84 -10.47 261
Brown -10.39 -10.54 -10.49 -10.59 -10.50 262
Portland -10.5 -10.37 -10.51 -10.75 -10.53 263
La Salle -10.53 -10.78 -10.65 -10.34 -10.58 264
Northern Kentucky -10.46 -10.74 -10.31 -10.99 -10.63 265
Eastern Illinois -10.37 -10.82 -10.6 -10.75 -10.64 266
Cal St. Fullerton -10.36 -10.65 -10.3 -11.4 -10.68 267
Youngstown St. -10.57 -10.83 -10.41 -10.92 -10.68 268
Rutgers -10.84 -10.66 -10.74 -10.74 -10.75 269
Abilene Christian -10.57 -10.86 -10.8 -11.08 -10.83 270
Cal St. Northridge -10.55 -11.01 -10.6 -11.28 -10.86 271
Austin Peay -10.68 -11.12 -10.9 -11.29 -11.00 272
Rider -10.69 -11.1 -10.96 -11.43 -11.05 273
Santa Clara -11.11 -10.91 -11.11 -11.29 -11.11 274
Canisius -10.6 -11.36 -10.99 -11.59 -11.14 275
Samford -10.76 -11.4 -11.14 -11.34 -11.16 276
Central Arkansas -10.85 -11.36 -11.21 -11.32 -11.19 277
Alabama St. -10.94 -11.51 -11.18 -11.37 -11.25 278
Pacific -11.23 -11.08 -11.31 -11.4 -11.26 279
Miami OH -11.3 -11.89 -11.46 -11.07 -11.43 280
Kennesaw St. -11.13 -11.58 -11.4 -11.66 -11.44 281
San Diego -11.52 -11.46 -11.56 -11.26 -11.45 282
Howard -11.22 -11.59 -11.42 -11.73 -11.49 283
North Texas -11.32 -11.59 -11.59 -11.61 -11.53 284
Rice -11.38 -11.64 -11.69 -11.57 -11.57 285
New Orleans -11.22 -11.73 -11.52 -11.83 -11.58 286
Portland St. -11.21 -11.71 -11.43 -12.04 -11.60 287
Holy Cross -11.29 -11.6 -11.53 -12.01 -11.61 288
Charleston Southern -11.37 -11.93 -11.64 -11.56 -11.63 289
North Carolina Central -11.6 -11.94 -11.86 -11.97 -11.84 290
Bethune Cookman -11.51 -11.98 -11.75 -12.23 -11.87 291
Northwestern St. -11.67 -11.97 -11.99 -11.95 -11.90 292
Campbell -11.59 -12.28 -11.77 -11.95 -11.90 293
Sacred Heart -11.56 -12.06 -11.77 -12.28 -11.92 294
UNC Greensboro -11.8 -12.45 -11.97 -12.35 -12.14 295
San Jose St. -12.2 -12.13 -12.21 -12.19 -12.18 296
Delaware -11.81 -12.77 -11.93 -12.34 -12.21 297
McNeese St. -11.9 -12.33 -12.31 -12.34 -12.22 298
Troy -11.82 -12.62 -12.35 -12.62 -12.35 299
Loyola MD -12.03 -12.55 -12.29 -12.8 -12.42 300
South Florida -12.57 -12.62 -12.61 -12.26 -12.52 301
Cleveland St. -12.32 -12.93 -12.47 -12.66 -12.60 302
Lamar -12.35 -12.78 -12.63 -12.8 -12.64 303
Southern Miss -12.5 -12.8 -12.75 -12.86 -12.73 304
VMI -12.47 -12.98 -12.69 -12.79 -12.73 305
Maryland Eastern Shore -12.55 -12.73 -12.92 -12.81 -12.75 306
The Citadel -12.43 -13.18 -12.73 -12.9 -12.81 307
St. Francis NY -12.57 -12.9 -12.69 -13.35 -12.88 308
Appalachian St. -12.23 -13.15 -13.01 -13.16 -12.89 309
Southeastern Louisiana -12.69 -13.03 -13.06 -13.06 -12.96 310
Nicholls St. -12.77 -13.11 -13.13 -13 -13.00 311
Northern Colorado -12.7 -13.05 -12.89 -13.43 -13.02 312
Presbyterian -12.89 -13.39 -13.02 -13.04 -13.09 313
Quinnipiac -12.68 -13.2 -13.04 -13.6 -13.13 314
Coppin St. -13.18 -13.57 -13.31 -13.45 -13.38 315
Lipscomb -13.08 -13.68 -13.24 -13.54 -13.39 316
Florida Atlantic -13.15 -13.48 -13.59 -13.38 -13.40 317
American -12.97 -13.59 -13.33 -13.74 -13.41 318
Stetson -13.11 -13.64 -13.29 -13.89 -13.48 319
Drake -13.25 -13.58 -13.54 -13.9 -13.57 320
Arkansas Pine Bluff -13.53 -13.97 -14.01 -13.96 -13.87 321
Maine -13.6 -13.97 -13.72 -14.24 -13.88 322
Southern Utah -14.06 -14.28 -14.25 -14.76 -14.34 323
Binghamton -13.92 -14.55 -14.33 -14.63 -14.36 324
Northern Arizona -14 -14.54 -14.37 -14.63 -14.39 325
Florida A&M -14.08 -14.52 -14.36 -14.69 -14.41 326
UT Rio Grande Valley -14.3 -14.74 -14.54 -14.83 -14.60 327
Robert Morris -14.44 -14.91 -14.55 -14.96 -14.72 328
Morgan St. -14.32 -14.89 -14.67 -15.06 -14.74 329
Bryant -14.73 -14.98 -14.61 -15.24 -14.89 330
SIU Edwardsville -14.74 -15.07 -14.78 -15.04 -14.91 331
Longwood -14.64 -15.26 -14.86 -15.08 -14.96 332
Grambling St. -14.74 -15.14 -15 -15.03 -14.98 333
USC Upstate -14.77 -15.11 -14.96 -15.17 -15.00 334
North Carolina A&T -14.85 -15.06 -15.04 -15.15 -15.03 335
Delaware St. -15.08 -15.21 -14.93 -15.31 -15.13 336
Bradley -14.93 -15.31 -15.24 -15.52 -15.25 337
Jacksonville St. -15.01 -15.55 -15.18 -15.41 -15.29 338
Drexel -14.86 -15.91 -15.06 -15.35 -15.30 339
Illinois Chicago -15.27 -15.74 -15.29 -15.65 -15.49 340
Prairie View A&M -15.34 -15.6 -15.59 -15.68 -15.55 341
Hartford -15.3 -15.71 -15.46 -15.96 -15.61 342
Lafayette -15.61 -16 -15.81 -16.29 -15.93 343
Marist -15.45 -16.05 -15.83 -16.42 -15.94 344
Niagara -15.61 -16.2 -15.98 -16.56 -16.09 345
Southeast Missouri St. -16.08 -16.41 -16.16 -16.42 -16.27 346
Mississippi Valley St. -16.21 -16.68 -16.38 -16.75 -16.51 347
Chicago St. -16.83 -17.24 -16.86 -17.09 -17.01 348
UMBC -16.6 -17.19 -16.76 -17.63 -17.05 349
UTSA -17.06 -17.43 -17.3 -17.49 -17.32 350
Central Connecticut -18.77 -19.07 -18.88 -19.37 -19.02 351

 

 

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2 comments
  1. ColoradoCat said:

    Are the Pythag’s used in the WAB calculation taken from a team’s status at the time the game was played? Or are they updated throughout the year as teams’ Pythag ratings change (i.e. cans wins be “better” or “worse” as the year goes on). Thanks.

  2. sethburn said:

    Updated. It’s a Bayesian view taking all data into account.

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