WAB Redux

On the left we have WAB as I’ve been calculating it all season. You’ll note some slight differences from this morning’s numbers as I fixed a bug involving UT Rio Grande Valley and modified home court advantage such that it matches KenPom’s.

On the right we have something slightly different. Instead of calculating the game with the Pythagorean ratings and the formula (A-A*B)/(A+B-2*A*B), I’m using the Adjusted Offense and Defense ratings to simulate the games. That’s a bit of a pain in the arse, but it solves a few problems. The major issue is that the Pyth estimates in games with very large spreads are a bit optimistic in the underdog’s chances, while using the adjusted offense and defense numbers gives a more realistic estimate. Still, the differences are pretty subtle, so I may end up sticking with WAB.

Rank School WAB WAB Redux
1 Oklahoma 6.53 6.51
2 Villanova 5.77 5.77
3 Maryland 5.56 5.54
4 Xavier 5.17 5.14
5 Virginia 5.11 5.15
6 West Virginia 4.85 4.81
7 Iowa 4.81 4.84
8 Kansas 4.65 4.61
9 Michigan St. 4.32 4.32
10 North Carolina 4.29 4.29
11 Oregon 4.07 4.03
12 Miami FL 3.82 3.92
13 Iowa St. 3.64 3.61
14 SMU 3.52 3.49
15 Texas A&M 3.23 3.22
16 South Carolina 3.22 3.18
17 Dayton 3.05 3.06
18 Duke 2.62 2.65
19 Purdue 2.6 2.61
20 Louisville 2.57 2.65
21 USC 2.46 2.45
22 Arizona 2.47 2.47
23 Providence 2.34 2.36
24 Baylor 2.27 2.25
25 Arkansas Little Rock 2.34 2.3
26 Saint Joseph’s 2.05 2.02
27 Texas 2.01 2
28 Chattanooga 2.07 2.04
29 Utah 1.87 1.88
30 Kentucky 1.83 1.83
31 Notre Dame 1.75 1.8
32 Florida St. 1.73 1.76
33 Seton Hall 1.45 1.42
34 Monmouth 1.43 1.51
35 Pittsburgh 1.24 1.25
36 Valparaiso 1.34 1.37
37 Indiana 1.26 1.33
38 Michigan 1.21 1.21
39 Florida 1.21 1.18
40 Akron 1.27 1.29
41 Saint Mary’s 0.95 0.94
42 George Washington 0.92 0.89
43 Connecticut 0.89 0.86
44 Gonzaga 0.77 0.74
45 Colorado 0.66 0.71
46 Wichita St. 0.52 0.5
47 Syracuse 0.46 0.54
48 Butler 0.38 0.33
49 Hawaii 0.34 0.33
50 Cincinnati 0.32 0.33
51 San Diego St. 0.27 0.23
52 Kansas St. 0.23 0.25
53 VCU 0.23 0.28
54 Stony Brook 0.24 0.29
55 UC Irvine 0.1 0.14
56 Princeton -0.03 -0.05
57 Washington -0.23 -0.22
58 William & Mary -0.18 -0.19
59 Evansville -0.26 -0.31
60 South Dakota St. -0.24 -0.27
61 Grand Canyon -0.29 -0.34
62 UNC Wilmington -0.29 -0.28
63 California -0.38 -0.38
64 Oregon St. -0.41 -0.44
65 Texas Tech -0.45 -0.46
66 Yale -0.53 -0.5
67 UAB -0.54 -0.54
68 St. Bonaventure -0.55 -0.59
69 Temple -0.65 -0.66
70 Alabama -0.67 -0.62
71 LSU -0.76 -0.79
72 Northwestern -0.76 -0.74
73 Wisconsin -0.96 -0.98
74 Vanderbilt -1.08 -1.09
75 Tulsa -1.09 -1.15
76 Houston -1.08 -1.1
77 Texas A&M Corpus Chris -1.09 -1.12
78 IPFW -1.1 -1.11
79 Georgia -1.28 -1.3
80 UCLA -1.27 -1.25
81 Marquette -1.26 -1.25
82 Creighton -1.39 -1.41
83 Mississippi -1.52 -1.57
84 James Madison -1.54 -1.52
85 Clemson -1.6 -1.57
86 Stephen F. Austin -1.55 -1.53
87 Stanford -1.64 -1.61
88 BYU -1.58 -1.56
89 Davidson -1.63 -1.59
90 Middle Tennessee -1.63 -1.64
91 Oakland -1.69 -1.68
92 Hofstra -1.74 -1.76
93 Georgetown -1.86 -1.86
94 Georgia Tech -1.92 -1.85
95 Boise St. -1.92 -1.93
96 Ohio St. -2 -2.03
97 Albany -1.95 -1.94
98 Arizona St. -2.16 -2.17
99 UT Arlington -2.2 -2.22
100 Tennessee Tech -2.33 -2.32
101 Columbia -2.38 -2.42
102 Virginia Tech -2.48 -2.4
103 Southern Illinois -2.46 -2.48
104 Belmont -2.47 -2.52
105 Louisiana Tech -2.54 -2.55
106 North Florida -2.49 -2.51
107 Memphis -2.7 -2.76
108 Mercer -2.64 -2.65
109 College of Charleston -2.67 -2.63
110 Buffalo -2.72 -2.68
111 Fresno St. -2.82 -2.86
112 Nebraska -2.96 -2.96
113 Duquesne -2.94 -2.91
114 Wake Forest -3.09 -2.99
115 New Mexico -3.04 -3.12
116 Arkansas -3.15 -3.22
117 Louisiana Lafayette -3.08 -3.09
118 Cal St. Bakersfield -3.19 -3.17
119 Northern Illinois -3.26 -3.27
120 Long Beach St. -3.29 -3.26
121 Richmond -3.41 -3.45
122 Towson -3.38 -3.39
123 Penn St. -3.42 -3.39
124 Kent St. -3.39 -3.35
125 Winthrop -3.44 -3.47
126 North Carolina St. -3.55 -3.47
127 New Mexico St. -3.51 -3.5
128 East Tennessee St. -3.59 -3.59
129 UNC Asheville -3.66 -3.66
130 Montana -3.67 -3.68
131 Ohio -3.74 -3.73
132 Siena -3.79 -3.76
133 Nevada -3.78 -3.81
134 Georgia St. -3.82 -3.84
135 Tennessee -3.84 -3.86
136 Weber St. -3.84 -3.85
137 Tennessee St. -3.82 -3.81
138 Rhode Island -3.9 -3.92
139 Iona -3.92 -3.96
140 North Dakota St. -3.93 -3.91
141 Milwaukee -4.11 -4.09
142 Ball St. -4.2 -4.23
143 Southern -4.2 -4.18
144 TCU -4.35 -4.31
145 Elon -4.28 -4.24
146 Pepperdine -4.32 -4.3
147 Northern Iowa -4.34 -4.32
148 UNLV -4.4 -4.39
149 Oklahoma St. -4.46 -4.45
150 Fordham -4.47 -4.5
151 Green Bay -4.45 -4.45
152 Coastal Carolina -4.54 -4.57
153 Wright St. -4.68 -4.66
154 Old Dominion -4.73 -4.74
155 Illinois St. -4.75 -4.82
156 UC Santa Barbara -4.75 -4.77
157 Illinois -4.9 -4.88
158 Wagner -4.87 -4.86
159 Hampton -5.05 -5.01
160 High Point -5.14 -5.13
161 Indiana St. -5.2 -5.22
162 Toledo -5.21 -5.21
163 UCF -5.3 -5.31
164 Navy -5.3 -5.32
165 Nebraska Omaha -5.28 -5.31
166 Auburn -5.36 -5.42
167 New Hampshire -5.32 -5.31
168 Central Michigan -5.36 -5.35
169 Colorado St. -5.53 -5.61
170 Incarnate Word -5.53 -5.53
171 Utah St. -5.56 -5.58
172 San Francisco -5.6 -5.59
173 Fairfield -5.62 -5.62
174 East Carolina -5.72 -5.83
175 Mississippi St. -5.77 -5.78
176 Houston Baptist -5.92 -5.92
177 Furman -5.98 -6.03
178 Radford -6.01 -6.01
179 Cornell -5.99 -5.97
180 Marshall -6.07 -6.09
181 Detroit -6.1 -6.1
182 NJIT -6.12 -6.14
183 Northeastern -6.17 -6.15
184 Vermont -6.13 -6.16
185 Eastern Michigan -6.2 -6.17
186 Texas Southern -6.16 -6.09
187 Morehead St. -6.2 -6.15
188 Idaho -6.26 -6.3
189 South Carolina St. -6.23 -6.24
190 Bowling Green -6.29 -6.28
191 DePaul -6.33 -6.34
192 Bucknell -6.33 -6.32
193 Eastern Washington -6.48 -6.44
194 Washington St. -6.7 -6.68
195 North Dakota -6.64 -6.67
196 Gardner Webb -6.59 -6.57
197 Louisiana Monroe -6.63 -6.64
198 Wofford -6.85 -6.84
199 Western Kentucky -6.93 -6.95
200 Florida Gulf Coast -6.96 -6.99
201 Jackson St. -6.92 -6.87
202 Oral Roberts -6.91 -6.92
203 Jacksonville -6.94 -6.96
204 Denver -7.09 -7.1
205 Eastern Kentucky -7.07 -7.04
206 Penn -7.13 -7.15
207 Boston College -7.22 -7.09
208 Missouri -7.28 -7.32
209 Massachusetts -7.29 -7.28
210 Loyola Chicago -7.27 -7.24
211 Fairleigh Dickinson -7.26 -7.26
212 Boston University -7.33 -7.31
213 Air Force -7.37 -7.41
214 Murray St. -7.38 -7.39
215 St. Francis PA -7.46 -7.41
216 Georgia Southern -7.48 -7.47
217 Seattle -7.53 -7.55
218 UTEP -7.57 -7.6
219 IUPUI -7.51 -7.5
220 Sam Houston St. -7.57 -7.56
221 Tennessee Martin -7.59 -7.59
222 Idaho St. -7.62 -7.64
223 Army -7.67 -7.66
224 Manhattan -7.72 -7.71
225 Wyoming -7.75 -7.81
226 Arkansas St. -7.77 -7.74
227 Sacramento St. -7.77 -7.77
228 UC Davis -7.78 -7.78
229 Norfolk St. -7.83 -7.87
230 Texas St. -7.84 -7.84
231 Saint Louis -7.95 -8.02
232 Missouri St. -7.97 -8.02
233 Cal Poly -7.97 -7.99
234 Harvard -7.97 -7.95
235 Saint Peter’s -7.99 -7.99
236 George Mason -8.12 -8.11
237 Western Illinois -8.1 -8.08
238 Loyola Marymount -8.24 -8.23
239 Northern Kentucky -8.28 -8.24
240 South Dakota -8.32 -8.36
241 Alcorn St. -8.41 -8.37
242 Eastern Illinois -8.55 -8.52
243 Western Michigan -8.64 -8.65
244 Tulane -8.67 -8.69
245 South Alabama -8.63 -8.64
246 Brown -8.75 -8.77
247 Colgate -8.68 -8.67
248 Montana St. -8.78 -8.81
249 Lehigh -9.13 -9.15
250 Canisius -9.14 -9.13
251 Western Carolina -9.08 -9.09
252 Utah Valley -9.09 -9.1
253 Cal St. Fullerton -9.18 -9.2
254 St. John’s -9.26 -9.27
255 FIU -9.2 -9.19
256 Samford -9.21 -9.24
257 Minnesota -9.39 -9.4
258 Savannah St. -9.31 -9.27
259 Alabama A&M -9.29 -9.28
260 Rutgers -9.39 -9.38
261 UMKC -9.31 -9.35
262 Dartmouth -9.35 -9.37
263 UC Riverside -9.39 -9.42
264 Pacific -9.42 -9.39
265 Youngstown St. -9.51 -9.47
266 New Orleans -9.54 -9.52
267 La Salle -9.63 -9.67
268 Charlotte -9.7 -9.69
269 Abilene Christian -9.69 -9.68
270 LIU Brooklyn -9.72 -9.72
271 San Diego -9.78 -9.78
272 Mount St. Mary’s -9.8 -9.8
273 Portland St. -9.81 -9.83
274 Miami OH -9.89 -9.89
275 Portland -9.91 -9.91
276 Rider -9.93 -9.94
277 Austin Peay -9.92 -9.92
278 UMass Lowell -9.96 -9.94
279 Liberty -10.04 -9.98
280 McNeese St. -10.04 -9.97
281 Cal St. Northridge -10.09 -10.08
282 North Texas -10.15 -10.16
283 Central Arkansas -10.17 -10.18
284 Howard -10.24 -10.24
285 Quinnipiac -10.31 -10.34
286 Santa Clara -10.34 -10.34
287 Loyola MD -10.32 -10.31
288 Holy Cross -10.53 -10.54
289 Charleston Southern -10.55 -10.56
290 Maryland Eastern Shore -10.59 -10.56
291 Bethune Cookman -10.63 -10.61
292 Northwestern St. -10.73 -10.68
293 Sacred Heart -10.75 -10.76
294 Southern Miss -10.85 -10.87
295 UNC Greensboro -10.89 -10.87
296 The Citadel -10.93 -10.93
297 Alabama St. -10.92 -10.91
298 Delaware -10.94 -10.92
299 Appalachian St. -11.05 -11.04
300 Rice -11.06 -11.08
301 San Jose St. -11.09 -11.13
302 Presbyterian -11.12 -11.11
303 Troy -11.17 -11.19
304 Northern Colorado -11.21 -11.23
305 Kennesaw St. -11.21 -11.23
306 American -11.24 -11.26
307 Stetson -11.33 -11.32
308 St. Francis NY -11.6 -11.61
309 Lamar -11.61 -11.62
310 Campbell -11.73 -11.73
311 North Carolina Central -11.75 -11.71
312 Nicholls St. -11.75 -11.77
313 Cleveland St. -11.87 -11.89
314 Southeastern Louisiana -11.86 -11.86
315 Florida Atlantic -12.05 -12.02
316 Maine -12.09 -12.13
317 Arkansas Pine Bluff -12.07 -12.05
318 South Florida -12.24 -12.22
319 Drake -12.19 -12.21
320 Coppin St. -12.18 -12.16
321 Florida A&M -12.27 -12.24
322 Southern Utah -12.4 -12.37
323 Northern Arizona -12.5 -12.53
324 VMI -12.52 -12.51
325 Morgan St. -12.73 -12.73
326 Bryant -12.89 -12.86
327 Marist -12.97 -12.97
328 Longwood -12.99 -12.97
329 Grambling St. -13.05 -13.07
330 Lipscomb -13.14 -13.13
331 Drexel -13.26 -13.29
332 UT Rio Grande Valley -13.42 -13.4
333 Bradley -13.51 -13.54
334 Hartford -13.51 -13.56
335 Robert Morris -13.5 -13.51
336 Jacksonville St. -13.64 -13.65
337 North Carolina A&T -13.7 -13.73
338 Lafayette -13.74 -13.72
339 USC Upstate -13.82 -13.83
340 Binghamton -13.89 -13.88
341 SIU Edwardsville -13.97 -13.93
342 Niagara -14.05 -14.03
343 Southeast Missouri St. -14.37 -14.39
344 Prairie View A&M -14.44 -14.42
345 Illinois Chicago -14.51 -14.55
346 Mississippi Valley St. -14.45 -14.44
347 UMBC -14.99 -14.99
348 Delaware St. -15.12 -15.09
349 UTSA -15.47 -15.48
350 Chicago St. -15.99 -16.01
351 Central Connecticut -17.02 -17.04
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