Monday WAB: Monmouth on my mind

I’m going to be referencing some numbers from the bracket project as it is the hive mind of NCAA seeding: http://www.bracketmatrix.com/. I want to discuss various anomalies that are turning up in the NCAA selection and seeding process. Let’s start with Maryland.

Maryland is currently ninth in the KenPom ratings (http://kenpom.com/). Credit them as having the third best overall resume. They are 19-3 against the 40th toughest schedule (again, according to the KenPoms). Right now they look like they’ll be a 2 or 3 seed (2.70 seed-average), although they are showing up on the 4-line in multiple brackets. That seems absurd to me. I am still not sure how much I would weight resume vs. team strength in seeding, but I’m pretty sure I wouldn’t want to drop Maryland lower than a 2-seed given how well they’ve taken care of business.

West Virginia currently has a 3.58 seed-average despite being eighth in the KenPoms and having the sixth or seventh best resume (WAB and Percentile respectively). They are 19-4 against the 17th toughest schedule. I’m not really sure what is causing this discrepancy.

North Carolina is sixth in the KenPoms, and has the tenth best resume, but is being rewarded with a 1.40 seed-average. This may be a case of preseason expectations outweighing overall performance.

South Carolina is an odd case. They have an 8.95 seed-average despite an eminently respectable WAB. However, despite being 20-3, they’re 45th in the KenPoms, so perhaps this is a case of seeding based on team quality, not team resume.

Arkansas-Little Rock are destined to get hosed. Their 12.42 seed-average is not commensurate with their resume or their KenPom ranking (41st). It’s odd to say that there is a bias against teams who just win, but that’s how the system works.

Utah and Florida St. are odd when paired together. Utah has a slightly better WAB, Florida St. has a slightly better percentile. Florida St. is 37th in the KenPoms, Utah is 43rd. Florida St. is 16-7, Utah is 17-7. Utah’s seed -average is 5.45. Florida St.’s is 10.22. Huh?

Chattanooga and Monmouth are in the same boat as Arkansas-Little Rock, with seed-averages of 12.58 and 11.04 respectively. Chattanooga may be 80th in the KenPom rankings, but they’re 21-3. The NCAA claims they ignore conference affiliations (I believe them), but it is hard for me to imagine the Southern Conference getting two bids even if Chattanooga loses in the finals of their conference tournament to finish 30-4. As for Monmouth, they may have an outside shot of an at-large bid if they finish 28-6 without an automatic bid.

Akron feels Chattanooga’s pain. Despite being 21-4, it’s auto-bid or bust for the Zips (13.17 seed-average).

Wichita St., Colorado, and VCU seem safe with seed-averages of 7.69, 7.71, and 8.64 respectively. Those look a bit high to me, but I’ll let that slide as I have bigger fish to fry.

Washington’s 10.17 seed-average is tough for me to explain, but it makes more sense than California’s 9.76. California appeared on 79 of the 80 ballots, so it isn’t just variance. Is the Pac 12 collectively underrated in the KenPom ratings? That would explain why Oregon, Utah, Colorado, Washington, and California are getting the hookup. USC and Arizona are the notable exceptions.

I wanted to run an error check to see if the KenPoms are underrated the Pac 12, so I checked the Sagarin conference ratings. Here they are for comparison:

Conference Sagarin Rating KenPom Average
B12 85.28 0.8314
ACC 83.94 0.7836
P12 82.07 0.7699
BE 81.89 0.7372
SEC 80.72 0.7351
B10 82.08 0.7247
Amer 77.76 0.65
A10 76.27 0.6021
CAA 73.69 0.5786
MWC 73.97 0.5368
MAC 72.145 0.5226
MVC 73.07 0.5162
WCC 72.73 0.5108
BW 71.29 0.4998
Sum 70.61 0.4965
Ivy 70.51 0.4769
Horz 70.57 0.4736
SB 68.94 0.462
MAAC 68.67 0.4172
SC 67.79 0.4158
CUSA 68.7 0.3972
OVC 67.71 0.3731
WAC 66.3 0.3579
Bsth 66.38 0.3571
asun 65.47 0.3376
AE 64.02 0.3303
bsky 65.68 0.3231
Pat 66.22 0.3179
slnd 62.65 0.2862
NEC 62.43 0.2313
SWAC 59.96 0.2237
MEAC 60.18 0.193

Perhaps there is a conference getting hosed in the KenPoms, but it isn’t the Pac 12. The Big 10 gets a lot more respect from Sagarin than it does from KenPom. Apart from that there are a few minor blips, but nothing jumps out.

Enough with the preamble. Here are today’s WAB standings:

Rank School WAB Bubble Percentile
1 Oklahoma 6.11 99.91%
2 Villanova 5.77 99.84%
3 Maryland 5.53 99.79%
4 Xavier 5.16 99.72%
5 Virginia 5.09 99.33%
6 West Virginia 4.84 99.26%
7 Iowa 4.80 99.38%
8 Kansas 4.64 99.05%
9 Michigan St. 4.31 98.56%
10 North Carolina 4.27 98.46%
11 Oregon 4.08 97.52%
12 Miami FL 3.80 97.06%
13 Iowa St. 3.64 96.07%
14 SMU 3.44 97.02%
15 Texas A&M 3.25 93.87%
16 South Carolina 3.20 95.72%
17 Dayton 3.04 95.26%
18 Louisville 2.80 94.07%
19 Purdue 2.62 91.17%
20 USC 2.44 88.85%
21 Arizona 2.43 88.51%
22 Baylor 2.32 89.31%
23 Providence 2.32 88.04%
24 Arkansas Little Rock 2.25 91.34%
25 Texas 2.17 84.67%
26 Saint Joseph’s 2.04 84.99%
27 Duke 2.03 83.16%
28 Kentucky 1.84 81.29%
29 Utah 1.81 80.83%
30 Florida St. 1.74 81.11%
31 Chattanooga 1.63 82.79%
32 Seton Hall 1.44 77.14%
33 Monmouth 1.29 74.30%
34 Pittsburgh 1.29 75.97%
35 Valparaiso 1.25 74.58%
36 Florida 1.24 72.56%
37 Indiana 1.22 72.96%
38 Akron 1.21 74.31%
39 Michigan 1.19 73.13%
40 Notre Dame 1.14 72.18%
41 Saint Mary’s 0.94 70.19%
42 George Washington 0.90 67.28%
43 Connecticut 0.84 66.09%
44 Gonzaga 0.75 64.56%
45 Colorado 0.62 61.41%
46 Wichita St. 0.48 59.08%
47 Syracuse 0.45 58.45%
48 Butler 0.36 57.05%
49 Hawaii 0.35 57.38%
50 Cincinnati 0.28 55.24%
51 Kansas St. 0.28 55.81%
52 San Diego St. 0.25 54.29%
53 VCU 0.22 53.52%
54 Stony Brook 0.13 51.40%
55 UC Irvine 0.02 49.39%
56 Princeton -0.11 46.26%
57 William & Mary -0.22 44.15%
58 Washington -0.24 44.85%
59 Evansville -0.33 42.13%
60 Grand Canyon -0.35 39.35%
61 South Dakota St. -0.36 40.96%
62 UNC Wilmington -0.37 40.74%
63 California -0.37 42.06%
64 Oregon St. -0.39 41.95%
65 Texas Tech -0.43 41.37%
66 UAB -0.56 35.30%
67 St. Bonaventure -0.58 36.79%
68 Yale -0.61 33.68%
69 Alabama -0.69 36.62%
70 Temple -0.69 35.89%
71 LSU -0.74 34.94%
72 Northwestern -0.77 33.19%
73 Wisconsin -0.94 31.83%
74 Clemson -1.02 29.88%
75 Vanderbilt -1.08 29.78%
76 Tulsa -1.10 29.09%
77 Houston -1.12 26.57%
78 Texas A&M Corpus Chris -1.17 21.16%
79 IPFW -1.21 25.33%
80 Georgia -1.23 26.13%
81 Marquette -1.26 25.12%
82 UCLA -1.27 27.07%
83 Creighton -1.39 23.07%
84 Mississippi -1.52 21.44%
85 James Madison -1.56 20.24%
86 Stephen F. Austin -1.63 13.77%
87 BYU -1.64 19.77%
88 Stanford -1.65 20.10%
89 Davidson -1.65 18.55%
90 Middle Tennessee -1.68 17.39%
91 Hofstra -1.77 18.44%
92 Oakland -1.79 16.97%
93 Georgia Tech -1.92 17.32%
94 Georgetown -1.93 17.39%
95 Boise St. -1.96 14.54%
96 Mercer -1.98 12.28%
97 Ohio St. -2.00 14.47%
98 Albany -2.03 10.98%
99 Arizona St. -2.19 15.55%
100 UT Arlington -2.30 9.83%
101 Tennessee Tech -2.43 7.72%
102 Columbia -2.45 7.88%
103 Virginia Tech -2.45 10.82%
104 Southern Illinois -2.49 8.58%
105 Belmont -2.55 8.61%
106 Louisiana Tech -2.58 5.93%
107 North Florida -2.58 6.53%
108 College of Charleston -2.68 7.46%
109 Memphis -2.69 7.05%
110 Buffalo -2.78 7.06%
111 Fresno St. -2.84 5.53%
112 Duquesne -2.95 5.35%
113 Nebraska -2.97 5.22%
114 Wake Forest -3.08 7.53%
115 New Mexico -3.09 5.38%
116 Arkansas -3.12 6.89%
117 Louisiana Lafayette -3.17 3.44%
118 Cal St. Bakersfield -3.29 2.46%
119 Northern Illinois -3.29 2.96%
120 Long Beach St. -3.34 5.33%
121 Towson -3.41 3.42%
122 Richmond -3.43 3.80%
123 Kent St. -3.45 3.24%
124 Penn St. -3.46 4.39%
125 Southern -3.47 1.67%
126 Winthrop -3.51 1.69%
127 North Carolina St. -3.54 4.72%
128 New Mexico St. -3.58 2.23%
129 East Tennessee St. -3.69 2.49%
130 UNC Asheville -3.73 1.91%
131 Montana -3.74 1.30%
132 Ohio -3.76 2.00%
133 Oklahoma St. -3.81 2.84%
134 Nevada -3.86 2.06%
135 Siena -3.86 2.25%
136 Georgia St. -3.87 1.50%
137 Weber St. -3.89 1.14%
138 Tennessee St. -3.89 1.14%
139 Tennessee -3.89 3.57%
140 Rhode Island -3.94 2.24%
141 Iona -4.01 1.58%
142 North Dakota St. -4.01 1.39%
143 Milwaukee -4.18 1.22%
144 Ball St. -4.21 1.08%
145 Elon -4.35 1.43%
146 Pepperdine -4.37 1.55%
147 Northern Iowa -4.38 1.79%
148 UNLV -4.44 1.28%
149 Fordham -4.49 0.36%
150 Green Bay -4.54 0.99%
151 TCU -4.59 0.91%
152 Coastal Carolina -4.60 0.44%
153 Incarnate Word -4.64 0.06%
154 Wright St. -4.74 0.63%
155 Old Dominion -4.77 0.63%
156 Illinois St. -4.79 0.80%
157 UC Santa Barbara -4.82 1.13%
158 Illinois -4.90 0.98%
159 Wagner -4.95 0.11%
160 High Point -5.20 0.12%
161 Hampton -5.21 0.09%
162 Indiana St. -5.23 0.43%
163 Toledo -5.25 0.33%
164 Vermont -5.29 0.29%
165 Houston Baptist -5.31 0.09%
166 UCF -5.33 0.21%
167 Navy -5.34 0.19%
168 Auburn -5.35 0.58%
169 Nebraska Omaha -5.37 0.34%
170 New Hampshire -5.40 0.05%
171 Central Michigan -5.41 0.21%
172 Colorado St. -5.55 0.17%
173 San Francisco -5.64 0.08%
174 Utah St. -5.65 0.15%
175 Fairfield -5.70 0.15%
176 East Carolina -5.78 0.19%
177 Mississippi St. -5.80 0.12%
178 Radford -6.08 0.08%
179 Cornell -6.10 0.05%
180 Marshall -6.11 0.12%
181 Furman -6.12 0.06%
182 Detroit -6.15 0.07%
183 Northeastern -6.18 0.18%
184 NJIT -6.19 0.05%
185 Texas Southern -6.26 0.03%
186 Eastern Michigan -6.27 0.04%
187 Morehead St. -6.30 0.05%
188 Idaho -6.33 0.03%
189 Bowling Green -6.35 0.04%
190 DePaul -6.36 0.16%
191 South Carolina St. -6.36 0.02%
192 Bucknell -6.43 0.03%
193 Eastern Washington -6.56 0.01%
194 Gardner Webb -6.67 0.01%
195 North Dakota -6.67 0.01%
196 Washington St. -6.68 0.04%
197 Louisiana Monroe -6.73 0.03%
198 Western Kentucky -6.94 0.02%
199 Wofford -6.96 0.02%
200 Florida Gulf Coast -6.99 0.01%
201 Jacksonville -7.01 0.01%
202 Oral Roberts -7.03 0.04%
203 Jackson St. -7.09 0.00%
204 Denver -7.13 0.02%
205 Eastern Kentucky -7.13 0.01%
206 Penn -7.16 0.00%
207 Boston College -7.27 0.00%
208 Missouri -7.30 0.01%
209 Massachusetts -7.30 0.01%
210 Loyola Chicago -7.34 0.01%
211 Fairleigh Dickinson -7.35 0.00%
212 Boston University -7.41 0.01%
213 Air Force -7.43 0.01%
214 Murray St. -7.44 0.01%
215 St. Francis PA -7.53 0.00%
216 Georgia Southern -7.55 0.00%
217 Seattle -7.58 0.00%
218 UTEP -7.61 0.00%
219 Sam Houston St. -7.62 0.00%
220 IUPUI -7.67 0.02%
221 Tennessee Martin -7.68 0.00%
222 Idaho St. -7.72 0.00%
223 Manhattan -7.78 0.00%
224 Wyoming -7.80 0.01%
225 Army -7.80 0.00%
226 Arkansas St. -7.80 0.00%
227 Sacramento St. -7.82 0.00%
228 UC Davis -7.85 0.00%
229 Texas St. -7.92 0.00%
230 Saint Louis -7.93 0.00%
231 Missouri St. -7.98 0.00%
232 Colgate -8.01 0.00%
233 Cal Poly -8.02 0.00%
234 Harvard -8.03 0.00%
235 Norfolk St. -8.03 0.00%
236 George Mason -8.11 0.01%
237 Saint Peter’s -8.13 0.00%
238 Western Illinois -8.18 0.00%
239 Loyola Marymount -8.33 0.00%
240 Northern Kentucky -8.33 0.00%
241 South Dakota -8.42 0.00%
242 Alabama A&M -8.43 0.00%
243 Alcorn St. -8.52 0.00%
244 Eastern Illinois -8.62 0.00%
245 Western Michigan -8.66 0.00%
246 Tulane -8.70 0.00%
247 South Alabama -8.73 0.00%
248 Brown -8.81 0.00%
249 St. John’s -8.83 0.00%
250 Montana St. -8.85 0.00%
251 Utah Valley -9.20 0.00%
252 Western Carolina -9.21 0.00%
253 Canisius -9.22 0.00%
254 Lehigh -9.23 0.00%
255 Cal St. Fullerton -9.25 0.00%
256 FIU -9.25 0.00%
257 Howard -9.36 0.00%
258 Minnesota -9.37 0.00%
259 Samford -9.37 0.00%
260 Rutgers -9.40 0.00%
261 UMKC -9.40 0.00%
262 Savannah St. -9.40 0.00%
263 Dartmouth -9.42 0.00%
264 UC Riverside -9.45 0.00%
265 Pacific -9.47 0.00%
266 Quinnipiac -9.54 0.00%
267 New Orleans -9.60 0.00%
268 Youngstown St. -9.61 0.00%
269 La Salle -9.64 0.00%
270 Charlotte -9.72 0.00%
271 LIU Brooklyn -9.77 0.00%
272 Maryland Eastern Shore -9.79 0.00%
273 San Diego -9.84 0.00%
274 Abilene Christian -9.85 0.00%
275 Portland St. -9.91 0.00%
276 Mount St. Mary’s -9.92 0.00%
277 Miami OH -9.93 0.00%
278 Portland -9.97 0.00%
279 Austin Peay -10.01 0.00%
280 Rider -10.04 0.00%
281 Alabama St. -10.06 0.00%
282 The Citadel -10.06 0.00%
283 UMass Lowell -10.11 0.00%
284 McNeese St. -10.12 0.00%
285 Liberty -10.12 0.00%
286 Cal St. Northridge -10.17 0.00%
287 North Texas -10.21 0.00%
288 Northwestern St. -10.24 0.00%
289 UNC Greensboro -10.25 0.00%
290 Central Arkansas -10.25 0.00%
291 Santa Clara -10.38 0.00%
292 Loyola MD -10.39 0.00%
293 Holy Cross -10.56 0.00%
294 Charleston Southern -10.62 0.00%
295 Lamar -10.68 0.00%
296 Bethune Cookman -10.73 0.00%
297 Sacred Heart -10.86 0.00%
298 Southern Miss -10.89 0.00%
299 Delaware -11.05 0.00%
300 Appalachian St. -11.10 0.00%
301 Rice -11.10 0.00%
302 San Jose St. -11.15 0.00%
303 Presbyterian -11.17 0.00%
304 Troy -11.23 0.00%
305 Northern Colorado -11.24 0.00%
306 Maine -11.28 0.00%
307 Kennesaw St. -11.31 0.00%
308 Coppin St. -11.32 0.00%
309 American -11.33 0.00%
310 Stetson -11.41 0.00%
311 St. Francis NY -11.67 0.00%
312 Campbell -11.78 0.00%
313 North Carolina Central -11.80 0.00%
314 VMI -11.83 0.00%
315 Nicholls St. -11.93 0.00%
316 Cleveland St. -11.94 0.00%
317 Southeastern Louisiana -11.96 0.00%
318 Morgan St. -11.97 0.00%
319 Florida Atlantic -12.16 0.00%
320 Grambling St. -12.17 0.00%
321 Arkansas Pine Bluff -12.23 0.00%
322 Drake -12.26 0.00%
323 South Florida -12.27 0.00%
324 Florida A&M -12.36 0.00%
325 Southern Utah -12.48 0.00%
326 Northern Arizona -12.61 0.00%
327 Lafayette -12.91 0.00%
328 Bryant -13.03 0.00%
329 Longwood -13.04 0.00%
330 Marist -13.06 0.00%
331 Binghamton -13.11 0.00%
332 Hartford -13.17 0.00%
333 Lipscomb -13.20 0.00%
334 Drexel -13.30 0.00%
335 UT Rio Grande Valley -13.51 0.00%
336 Bradley -13.56 0.00%
337 Robert Morris -13.61 0.00%
338 Jacksonville St. -13.72 0.00%
339 North Carolina A&T -13.76 0.00%
340 USC Upstate -13.87 0.00%
341 SIU Edwardsville -14.04 0.00%
342 Niagara -14.11 0.00%
343 Delaware St. -14.29 0.00%
344 Southeast Missouri St. -14.48 0.00%
345 Prairie View A&M -14.57 0.00%
346 Illinois Chicago -14.58 0.00%
347 Mississippi Valley St. -14.62 0.00%
348 UMBC -15.03 0.00%
349 UTSA -15.52 0.00%
350 Chicago St. -16.13 0.00%
351 Central Connecticut -17.10 0.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

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