WAB on 2-5: All about Bubble Percentile

Yesterday Hagrin asked:

“Hey Seth, quick question and if it’s your own formula you can’t disclose no worries – but how are you calculating Bubble Percentile? I’m very interested because I found teams 33-36 very interesting in terms of BP. I’m assuming it factors in not only resume strength, but current probability of getting the auto-bid for their conference? Is this correct?”

Here is what he was referring to:

33 Florida 1.42 75.98%
34 Chattanooga 1.37 79.06%
35 Kentucky 1.33 74.46%
36 Saint Mary’s 1.30 79.13%

Given the teams and conferences involved, that does seem like a logical conclusion, however Percentile has nothing to do with auto-bids. It’s actually based on the likelihood a bubble quality team would put up the same record. Let me give a simple example:

Game 1: Bubble expected win percentage (EW%) is 60%.

Game 2: EW% 80%.

Game 3: EW 50%.

The chance of an average bubble squad starting out 3-0 is 24%. Here are the percentages and Percentiles for each possible record:

3-0: 24%, 88.0% Percentile

2-1: 46.0%, 53.0% Percentile

1-2: 26.0%, 17.0% Percentile

0-3: 4.0%, 2.0% Percentile

Percentile sets you in the middle of the teams who would have the same record as you. So, why were Chattanooga and Saint Mary’s so much better in Percentile than WAB? Well, it comes down to permutations. Here are two Bubble Teams. Team A has faced a soft schedule where an average bubble squad would be 90% to win each game. Team B has faced a brutal schedule where each game was against an average bubble squad (on a neutral court):

Record of Team A Likelihood of Record Percentile WAB
20-0 0.1216 0.9392 2.00
19-1 0.2702 0.7433 1.00
18-2 0.2852 0.4657 0.00
17-3 0.1901 0.228 -1.00
16-4 0.0898 0.0881 -2.00
15-5 0.0319 0.0272 -3.00
14-6 0.0089 0.0068 -4.00
13-7 0.002 0.0014 -5.00
12-8 0.0004 0.0002 -6.00
11-9 0.0001 0 -7.00
10-10 0 0 -8.00
9-11 0 0 -9.00
8-12 0 0 -10.00
7-13 0 0 -11.00
6-14 0 0 -12.00
5-15 0 0 -13.00
4-16 0 0 -14.00
3-17 0 0 -15.00
2-18 0 0 -16.00
1-19 0 0 -17.00
0-20 0 0 -18.00

And Team B:

Record of Team B Likelihood of Record Percentile WAB
20-0 0 1 10.00
19-1 0 1 9.00
18-2 0.0002 0.9999 8.00
17-3 0.0011 0.9993 7.00
16-4 0.0046 0.9964 6.00
15-5 0.0148 0.9867 5.00
14-6 0.037 0.9608 4.00
13-7 0.0739 0.9054 3.00
12-8 0.1201 0.8083 2.00
11-9 0.1602 0.6682 1.00
10-10 0.1762 0.5 0.00
9-11 0.1602 0.3318 -1.00
8-12 0.1201 0.1917 -2.00
7-13 0.0739 0.0946 -3.00
6-14 0.037 0.0392 -4.00
5-15 0.0148 0.0133 -5.00
4-16 0.0046 0.0036 -6.00
3-17 0.0011 0.0007 -7.00
2-18 0.0002 0.0001 -8.00
1-19 0 0 -9.00
0-20 0 0 -10.00

In this case we can see that at 2.00 and 1.00 WAB, Team A has a higher Percentile. In fact, Team B could be 13-7 and have a higher WAB, but a lower Percentile than a 20-0 Team A. It comes down to the fact that WAB and Percentile are measuring different things. It is hard to go undefeated, or come close to running the table. Here are today’s ratings:

Rank School WAB Bubble Percentile
1 Oklahoma 6.40 99.97%
2 Villanova 5.15 99.64%
3 Xavier 5.01 99.67%
4 Maryland 4.97 99.60%
5 North Carolina 4.47 99.06%
6 Virginia 4.45 98.64%
7 Iowa 4.41 99.09%
8 West Virginia 4.33 98.76%
9 Kansas 4.32 98.72%
10 Texas A&M 3.91 97.32%
11 Oregon 3.82 96.97%
12 Michigan St. 3.74 97.34%
13 SMU 3.32 96.72%
14 Miami FL 3.24 94.98%
15 Iowa St. 3.08 93.81%
16 Dayton 2.91 94.89%
17 Purdue 2.88 93.62%
18 Louisville 2.75 93.63%
19 Providence 2.59 91.16%
20 Baylor 2.57 92.03%
21 USC 2.50 89.40%
22 South Carolina 2.43 90.64%
23 Arkansas Little Rock 2.15 90.38%
24 Utah 2.11 85.00%
25 Arizona 1.97 84.03%
26 Indiana 1.97 85.29%
27 Texas 1.93 82.39%
28 Duke 1.88 81.73%
29 Saint Joseph’s 1.82 82.65%
30 Pittsburgh 1.66 82.78%
31 Michigan 1.58 80.30%
32 Chattanooga 1.47 80.54%
33 Florida St. 1.46 77.59%
34 Florida 1.44 76.20%
35 Kentucky 1.37 75.08%
36 Valparaiso 1.29 75.32%
37 Monmouth 1.27 73.96%
38 Wichita St. 1.20 73.46%
39 Seton Hall 1.14 72.56%
40 Colorado 1.12 70.93%
41 VCU 0.98 68.98%
42 Akron 0.96 70.00%
43 Saint Mary’s 0.88 69.34%
44 Connecticut 0.75 64.56%
45 Cincinnati 0.74 64.82%
46 Syracuse 0.63 61.82%
47 Notre Dame 0.61 62.43%
48 Gonzaga 0.46 59.00%
49 Butler 0.29 55.68%
50 Washington 0.25 54.50%
51 George Washington 0.19 52.75%
52 Hawaii 0.16 52.50%
53 Stony Brook 0.06 49.89%
54 San Diego St. 0.04 50.09%
55 UC Irvine 0.03 49.68%
56 Texas Tech -0.23 44.93%
57 Evansville -0.24 43.94%
58 William & Mary -0.34 41.52%
59 Grand Canyon -0.35 39.39%
60 Kansas St. -0.36 42.21%
61 Princeton -0.41 38.63%
62 South Dakota St. -0.44 39.29%
63 Clemson -0.46 40.05%
64 Vanderbilt -0.54 39.05%
65 IPFW -0.55 37.04%
66 St. Bonaventure -0.60 36.23%
67 BYU -0.64 36.37%
68 UAB -0.64 33.49%
69 California -0.65 36.57%
70 UNC Wilmington -0.68 33.83%
71 Oregon St. -0.75 34.78%
72 Houston -0.77 32.46%
73 Northwestern -0.78 32.95%
74 Wisconsin -0.79 34.45%
75 Alabama -0.82 34.16%
76 LSU -0.85 32.71%
77 Yale -0.90 26.25%
78 Marquette -0.98 29.70%
79 Temple -1.05 28.92%
80 Boise St. -1.12 26.52%
81 Texas A&M Corpus Chris -1.19 20.68%
82 UCLA -1.21 28.11%
83 Hofstra -1.29 24.81%
84 Georgia -1.33 24.21%
85 Tulsa -1.35 24.62%
86 Stanford -1.35 23.89%
87 Georgia Tech -1.39 24.18%
88 Creighton -1.51 20.85%
89 Belmont -1.58 19.06%
90 Southern Illinois -1.59 17.76%
91 Georgetown -1.64 20.57%
92 Middle Tennessee -1.72 16.66%
93 Louisiana Tech -1.77 12.99%
94 James Madison -1.80 16.47%
95 Stephen F. Austin -1.83 10.60%
96 North Florida -1.84 12.94%
97 Oakland -1.91 15.21%
98 Davidson -1.98 13.57%
99 Mississippi -1.99 14.60%
100 Ohio St. -2.06 13.71%
101 Mercer -2.07 11.15%
102 Duquesne -2.10 11.74%
103 Albany -2.12 9.81%
104 Columbia -2.18 9.10%
105 Arizona St. -2.44 12.54%
106 Wake Forest -2.45 11.92%
107 UT Arlington -2.54 7.22%
108 New Mexico -2.55 8.24%
109 Tennessee Tech -2.58 6.26%
110 Kent St. -2.58 7.55%
111 Northern Illinois -2.69 5.12%
112 Virginia Tech -2.78 7.43%
113 College of Charleston -2.81 6.47%
114 Buffalo -2.88 6.10%
115 Siena -2.92 5.83%
116 Nebraska -2.96 5.27%
117 Fresno St. -3.04 3.90%
118 Memphis -3.10 3.93%
119 Weber St. -3.12 2.66%
120 Louisiana Lafayette -3.13 3.70%
121 Georgia St. -3.20 3.13%
122 Nevada -3.22 3.69%
123 Arkansas -3.24 5.83%
124 North Carolina St. -3.29 5.73%
125 Oklahoma St. -3.30 4.45%
126 Cal St. Bakersfield -3.36 2.20%
127 Milwaukee -3.38 2.90%
128 Long Beach St. -3.38 5.00%
129 Elon -3.43 3.87%
130 Southern -3.46 1.66%
131 Richmond -3.47 3.44%
132 Tennessee -3.49 4.85%
133 Winthrop -3.53 1.65%
134 New Mexico St. -3.62 1.96%
135 Pepperdine -3.65 3.07%
136 UNLV -3.70 2.66%
137 Towson -3.76 1.94%
138 UNC Asheville -3.77 1.65%
139 Penn St. -3.81 2.71%
140 East Tennessee St. -3.87 1.79%
141 Ohio -3.87 1.62%
142 Green Bay -3.88 1.86%
143 Fordham -3.92 0.74%
144 Montana -3.94 0.81%
145 Tennessee St. -3.98 0.86%
146 Rhode Island -4.10 1.73%
147 North Dakota St. -4.12 1.06%
148 TCU -4.23 1.22%
149 High Point -4.25 0.54%
150 Ball St. -4.30 0.88%
151 Iona -4.32 0.83%
152 Indiana St. -4.34 1.28%
153 Hampton -4.34 0.34%
154 Northern Iowa -4.39 1.62%
155 Navy -4.40 0.70%
156 Nebraska Omaha -4.48 1.05%
157 Houston Baptist -4.55 0.25%
158 Illinois -4.58 1.26%
159 Vermont -4.59 0.66%
160 UCF -4.64 0.50%
161 Incarnate Word -4.65 0.05%
162 Cornell -4.65 0.39%
163 Utah St. -4.80 0.43%
164 Central Michigan -4.82 0.43%
165 Wright St. -4.82 0.50%
166 Coastal Carolina -4.82 0.24%
167 Auburn -4.93 0.83%
168 UC Santa Barbara -4.93 0.94%
169 Old Dominion -4.95 0.39%
170 Wagner -4.97 0.10%
171 Radford -5.18 0.30%
172 Texas Southern -5.28 0.15%
173 Illinois St. -5.37 0.29%
174 Mississippi St. -5.43 0.17%
175 New Hampshire -5.44 0.04%
176 Fairfield -5.48 0.15%
177 Idaho -5.48 0.10%
178 Bowling Green -5.53 0.13%
179 Northeastern -5.53 0.38%
180 Morehead St. -5.53 0.13%
181 Toledo -5.58 0.15%
182 Eastern Michigan -5.62 0.09%
183 Furman -5.65 0.11%
184 East Carolina -5.68 0.20%
185 San Francisco -5.71 0.05%
186 Colorado St. -5.71 0.11%
187 Washington St. -5.90 0.12%
188 Western Kentucky -6.04 0.06%
189 Jackson St. -6.11 0.01%
190 DePaul -6.11 0.19%
191 Marshall -6.19 0.10%
192 NJIT -6.22 0.05%
193 Detroit -6.23 0.05%
194 Oral Roberts -6.29 0.10%
195 South Carolina St. -6.44 0.02%
196 Murray St. -6.45 0.05%
197 Bucknell -6.47 0.02%
198 Fairleigh Dickinson -6.48 0.01%
199 Harvard -6.57 0.01%
200 Gardner Webb -6.63 0.01%
201 Eastern Washington -6.70 0.01%
202 Massachusetts -6.83 0.02%
203 Louisiana Monroe -6.85 0.02%
204 Missouri -6.86 0.02%
205 Army -6.88 0.01%
206 Sam Houston St. -6.90 0.00%
207 Arkansas St. -6.91 0.01%
208 North Dakota -6.95 0.00%
209 Sacramento St. -6.96 0.00%
210 Manhattan -7.00 0.01%
211 Texas St. -7.04 0.00%
212 Jacksonville -7.08 0.00%
213 Boston College -7.08 0.00%
214 Florida Gulf Coast -7.09 0.00%
215 Wofford -7.09 0.01%
216 IUPUI -7.17 0.03%
217 Loyola Marymount -7.31 0.01%
218 Cal Poly -7.31 0.00%
219 Penn -7.37 0.00%
220 Saint Louis -7.40 0.01%
221 Boston University -7.44 0.01%
222 Denver -7.49 0.01%
223 St. Francis PA -7.49 0.00%
224 Missouri St. -7.54 0.01%
225 Eastern Kentucky -7.57 0.00%
226 George Mason -7.61 0.01%
227 Air Force -7.61 0.00%
228 Saint Peter’s -7.63 0.00%
229 Georgia Southern -7.67 0.00%
230 UTEP -7.68 0.00%
231 Seattle -7.68 0.00%
232 Loyola Chicago -7.70 0.00%
233 Tennessee Martin -7.72 0.00%
234 Idaho St. -7.80 0.00%
235 Wyoming -7.89 0.01%
236 Western Michigan -7.98 0.00%
237 UC Davis -8.05 0.00%
238 Dartmouth -8.06 0.00%
239 Colgate -8.13 0.00%
240 St. John’s -8.15 0.00%
241 Norfolk St. -8.16 0.00%
242 Brown -8.16 0.00%
243 Western Illinois -8.19 0.00%
244 South Alabama -8.34 0.00%
245 Howard -8.36 0.00%
246 Alabama A&M -8.42 0.00%
247 Canisius -8.43 0.00%
248 Northern Kentucky -8.47 0.00%
249 Eastern Illinois -8.49 0.00%
250 UC Riverside -8.50 0.00%
251 Samford -8.50 0.00%
252 South Dakota -8.51 0.00%
253 UMKC -8.55 0.00%
254 FIU -8.57 0.00%
255 New Orleans -8.64 0.00%
256 Utah Valley -8.64 0.00%
257 Alcorn St. -8.68 0.00%
258 Youngstown St. -8.70 0.00%
259 Cal St. Fullerton -8.71 0.00%
260 Tulane -8.74 0.00%
261 LIU Brooklyn -8.80 0.00%
262 Rutgers -8.82 0.00%
263 Charlotte -8.83 0.00%
264 Abilene Christian -8.95 0.00%
265 La Salle -8.97 0.00%
266 Portland St. -9.02 0.00%
267 McNeese St. -9.06 0.00%
268 Montana St. -9.11 0.00%
269 Mount St. Mary’s -9.16 0.00%
270 Lehigh -9.25 0.00%
271 Minnesota -9.25 0.00%
272 Western Carolina -9.29 0.00%
273 UNC Greensboro -9.30 0.00%
274 Rider -9.37 0.00%
275 San Diego -9.38 0.00%
276 Savannah St. -9.42 0.00%
277 UMass Lowell -9.46 0.00%
278 The Citadel -9.52 0.00%
279 Quinnipiac -9.53 0.00%
280 Santa Clara -9.58 0.00%
281 Charleston Southern -9.68 0.00%
282 Cal St. Northridge -9.69 0.00%
283 Holy Cross -9.71 0.00%
284 Lamar -9.83 0.00%
285 Maryland Eastern Shore -9.91 0.00%
286 Pacific -9.96 0.00%
287 Miami OH -9.97 0.00%
288 Southern Miss -9.99 0.00%
289 Portland -10.06 0.00%
290 Austin Peay -10.06 0.00%
291 Alabama St. -10.14 0.00%
292 Appalachian St. -10.24 0.00%
293 Central Arkansas -10.25 0.00%
294 Northwestern St. -10.25 0.00%
295 Maine -10.31 0.00%
296 Northern Colorado -10.31 0.00%
297 North Texas -10.34 0.00%
298 Presbyterian -10.38 0.00%
299 Liberty -10.40 0.00%
300 Stetson -10.47 0.00%
301 Kennesaw St. -10.47 0.00%
302 Loyola MD -10.51 0.00%
303 American -10.54 0.00%
304 Coppin St. -10.56 0.00%
305 Delaware -10.70 0.00%
306 North Carolina Central -10.76 0.00%
307 Bethune Cookman -10.84 0.00%
308 VMI -10.95 0.00%
309 Sacred Heart -10.98 0.00%
310 Campbell -10.98 0.00%
311 Morgan St. -11.07 0.00%
312 Rice -11.18 0.00%
313 San Jose St. -11.23 0.00%
314 Cleveland St. -11.25 0.00%
315 Grambling St. -11.30 0.00%
316 Arkansas Pine Bluff -11.33 0.00%
317 Drake -11.41 0.00%
318 Troy -11.48 0.00%
319 Florida Atlantic -11.63 0.00%
320 Southern Utah -11.64 0.00%
321 St. Francis NY -11.67 0.00%
322 South Florida -11.87 0.00%
323 Southeastern Louisiana -11.89 0.00%
324 Nicholls St. -12.00 0.00%
325 Lafayette -12.01 0.00%
326 Bryant -12.04 0.00%
327 Binghamton -12.13 0.00%
328 Florida A&M -12.30 0.00%
329 Niagara -12.36 0.00%
330 UT Rio Grande Valley -12.68 0.00%
331 Northern Arizona -12.70 0.00%
332 Jacksonville St. -12.86 0.00%
333 USC Upstate -12.92 0.00%
334 Drexel -12.93 0.00%
335 SIU Edwardsville -12.99 0.00%
336 Longwood -13.13 0.00%
337 Hartford -13.18 0.00%
338 Marist -13.22 0.00%
339 Lipscomb -13.22 0.00%
340 Delaware St. -13.35 0.00%
341 Robert Morris -13.63 0.00%
342 Mississippi Valley St. -13.63 0.00%
343 Southeast Missouri St. -13.66 0.00%
344 Bradley -13.74 0.00%
345 North Carolina A&T -13.89 0.00%
346 Illinois Chicago -14.10 0.00%
347 Prairie View A&M -14.49 0.00%
348 UTSA -14.67 0.00%
349 UMBC -14.96 0.00%
350 Chicago St. -15.55 0.00%
351 Central Connecticut -16.24 0.00%

 

 

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