Groundhog WAB: California vs. Arkansas-Little Rock

Jerry Palm’s most recent Bracketology has California as an 11-seed, and Arkansas-Little Rock out entirely. California is safely in (not one of the last four in), and Arkansas-LR is not one of the last four out. Arkansas-Little Rock looks like it has a much better body of work to me, but perhaps it would be best to break it down. For the record, remember that Jerry is just the messenger. He’s trying to predict what the committee would do with the information currently available, and I trust that he’s doing a good job of it.

California is 14-8. Arkansas-Little Rock is 19-2. However, California has played a much tougher schedule. Let’s see how they’ve done in their toughest games:

Opponent O Points Team T Points Bubble xW% Result
Virginia-Home 63 California-Away 62 0.1524 0
Oregon-Home 68 California-Away 65 0.2106 0
Utah-Home 73 California-Away 64 0.3472 0
Colorado-Home 70 California-Away 62 0.3791 0

California went 0-4 in their four toughest games. A generic bubble squad would expect to average 1.09 wins in those games. Interestingly, California was only outscored 274-253, which suggests they should have won 1.14 games. Is the committee going to give credit to them for close losses? I have no idea, but I do not. You play to win the game, and that is what I credit. Arkansas-LR faced an easier slate in their four toughest games:

Opponent O Points Team T Points Bubble xW% Result
Texas Tech-Home 65 Arkansas Little Rock-Away 53 0.4029 0
San Diego St.-Home 43 Arkansas Little Rock-Away 49 0.4136 1
Tulsa-Home 60 Arkansas Little Rock-Away 64 0.4305 1
UT Arlington-Home 62 Arkansas Little Rock-Away 68 0.5082 1

A generic bubble squad would expect to win 1.76 games here. Arkansas-LR ended up going 3-1 here, despite only outscoring their competition 234-230. That gives them an expected 2.2 wins

Those were the only four games Arkansas-LR has played where the expected bubble win percentage was under 70%. Let’s take a look at California’s tough, but winnable (for a bubble squad) games:

Opponent O Points Team T Points Bubble xW% Result
Arizona-Away 73 California-Home 74 0.4813 1
Oregon St.-Home 77 California-Away 71 0.4877 0
Saint Mary’s-Away 59 California-Home 63 0.5356 1
Stanford-Home 77 California-Away 71 0.5443 0
San Diego St.-Neutral 72 California-Neutral 58 0.5619 0
Utah-Away 58 California-Home 71 0.6376 1
Richmond-Neutral 94 California-Neutral 90 0.662 0
Colorado-Away 65 California-Home 79 0.6688 1

California outscored their opposition 577-575 in these games, so perhaps it isn’t a surprise they went 4-4. A generic bubble squad would expect to win 4.58 games on average. Interesting note: While a bubble squad would expect to average 2.32 wins at home, and 2.26 away from home (the game against Richmond was played in Las Vegas) Cal ended up going 4-0 at home, and 0-4 away from home.  That means that between Cal and Ark-LR, Ark-LR has the three best road wins (at San Diego St., at Tulsa, and at UT-Arlington).

So, what about the easier games? Arkansas-Little Rock has a blemish here:

Opponent O Points Team T Points Bubble xW% Result
DePaul-Home 44 Arkansas Little Rock-Away 66 0.7218 1
Louisiana Lafayette-Away 57 Arkansas Little Rock-Home 77 0.772 1
Arkansas St.-Home 76 Arkansas Little Rock-Away 73 0.8181 0
Idaho-Home 54 Arkansas Little Rock-Away 64 0.8212 1
East Carolina-Neutral 46 Arkansas Little Rock-Neutral 54 0.8344 1
Texas St.-Home 74 Arkansas Little Rock-Away 77 0.837 1
South Alabama-Home 60 Arkansas Little Rock-Away 69 0.8596 1
Troy-Home 61 Arkansas Little Rock-Away 67 0.8742 1
Georgia St.-Away 53 Arkansas Little Rock-Home 63 0.8879 1
Louisiana Monroe-Away 57 Arkansas Little Rock-Home 58 0.8892 1
Central Arkansas-Home 54 Arkansas Little Rock-Away 77 0.9169 1
Appalachian St.-Away 55 Arkansas Little Rock-Home 81 0.9437 1
Georgia Southern-Away 67 Arkansas Little Rock-Home 80 0.9441 1
Central Arkansas-Away 73 Arkansas Little Rock-Home 79 0.9733 1
Northern Arizona-Away 57 Arkansas Little Rock-Home 84 0.9856 1
Central Baptist-Away 57 Arkansas Little Rock-Home 76 1 1
Centenary-Away 49 Arkansas Little Rock-Home 95 1 1

While California has handled their weaker foes:

Opponent O Points Team T Points Bubble xW% Result
Arizona St.-Away 70 California-Home 75 0.7243 1
Wyoming-Home 72 California-Away 78 0.7392 1
UC Santa Barbara-Away 67 California-Home 85 0.8163 1
Davidson-Away 60 California-Home 86 0.8319 1
East Carolina-Away 62 California-Home 70 0.9016 1
Incarnate Word-Away 62 California-Home 74 0.9222 1
Sam Houston St.-Away 63 California-Home 89 0.9331 1
Rice-Away 65 California-Home 97 0.9602 1
Seattle-Away 52 California-Home 66 0.9627 1
Coppin St.-Away 51 California-Home 84 0.9836 1

Arkansas-LR went 16-1 in these games, losing at Arkansas St. A generic bubble squad would expect to win 15.08 games on average. As for California, they went 10-0 in these games. A bubble squad would only expect to win 8.78 games here.

Altogether Arkansas-LR is 19-2 where an average bubble squad would expect 16.83 wins. California is 14-8 versus a schedule that bubble squad would average 14.44 against. Arkansas-LR has the three best road wins, and two best wins overall. They also have the worst loss. California is 38th in the RPI, while Arkansas-LR is 50th. One note: Arkansas-LR is 17-2 as far as the RPI is concerned, as it does not count the games vs. Centenary or Central Baptist. I expect a bubble team to win those games 100% of the time, so it’s a wash.

As you might expect, I think Arkansas-LR is more deserving of an at-large bid at the moment than California is. I’m not sure how one could argue California has a better body of work, but the committee doesn’t answer to me, so the point is moot. In any event, here are today’s WAB standings:

Rank School WAB Bubble Percentile
1 Oklahoma 6.27 99.96%
2 Xavier 4.95 99.67%
3 Villanova 4.93 99.59%
4 Maryland 4.49 99.32%
5 North Carolina 4.49 99.08%
6 Virginia 4.35 98.51%
7 Iowa 4.29 99.01%
8 Texas A&M 4.24 98.47%
9 Kansas 4.03 98.37%
10 Michigan St. 3.75 97.36%
11 West Virginia 3.64 97.30%
12 Oregon 3.63 96.50%
13 Iowa St. 3.52 96.66%
14 SMU 3.49 97.27%
15 Providence 3.33 96.45%
16 Purdue 2.88 93.62%
17 South Carolina 2.86 94.89%
18 Miami FL 2.82 92.87%
19 Louisville 2.80 93.98%
20 Dayton 2.79 94.17%
21 Utah 2.62 90.90%
22 Saint Joseph’s 2.59 92.07%
23 Baylor 2.54 91.93%
24 USC 2.27 87.72%
25 Arkansas Little Rock 2.17 90.79%
26 Michigan 2.10 88.15%
27 Texas 1.99 83.15%
28 Kentucky 1.83 82.81%
29 Arizona 1.76 81.72%
30 Pittsburgh 1.66 82.73%
31 Florida St. 1.45 77.45%
32 Chattanooga 1.36 78.87%
33 Colorado 1.35 75.38%
34 Saint Mary’s 1.31 79.25%
35 Indiana 1.30 75.65%
36 Valparaiso 1.28 75.19%
37 Monmouth 1.24 73.52%
38 Duke 1.22 72.55%
39 Florida 1.17 72.30%
40 Wichita St. 1.05 71.03%
41 Seton Hall 0.99 70.31%
42 VCU 0.86 67.06%
43 Cincinnati 0.78 65.65%
44 Notre Dame 0.77 65.83%
45 Akron 0.59 62.39%
46 Evansville 0.44 58.79%
47 Syracuse 0.36 56.93%
48 Connecticut 0.34 56.68%
49 Gonzaga 0.34 56.40%
50 Grand Canyon 0.26 55.23%
51 Butler 0.04 50.63%
52 Washington 0.02 49.89%
53 Stony Brook -0.02 47.93%
54 San Diego St. -0.05 48.19%
55 George Washington -0.05 47.58%
56 Kansas St. -0.14 46.76%
57 UC Irvine -0.17 45.20%
58 Hawaii -0.19 42.74%
59 Princeton -0.33 40.66%
60 South Dakota St. -0.36 40.84%
61 Texas A&M Corpus Chris -0.44 36.46%
62 California -0.44 40.64%
63 Texas Tech -0.47 40.01%
64 Hofstra -0.60 36.73%
65 IPFW -0.67 34.35%
66 Marquette -0.67 34.97%
67 Houston -0.69 34.03%
68 UAB -0.71 31.98%
69 William & Mary -0.72 33.09%
70 Tulsa -0.79 33.70%
71 Clemson -0.85 31.88%
72 Northwestern -0.90 30.59%
73 UCLA -0.92 32.49%
74 Yale -0.93 25.70%
75 Georgia Tech -0.96 30.70%
76 BYU -1.00 29.01%
77 Oregon St. -1.03 29.21%
78 Vanderbilt -1.09 28.48%
79 LSU -1.12 27.35%
80 Wisconsin -1.15 27.74%
81 Boise St. -1.20 24.84%
82 UNC Wilmington -1.20 23.03%
83 Alabama -1.23 26.44%
84 St. Bonaventure -1.23 23.64%
85 Temple -1.24 25.21%
86 Stanford -1.28 25.01%
87 Georgetown -1.35 24.16%
88 Creighton -1.43 21.70%
89 Southern Illinois -1.44 19.24%
90 Davidson -1.57 17.84%
91 Georgia -1.59 19.67%
92 Ohio St. -1.63 18.68%
93 Belmont -1.65 17.87%
94 UT Arlington -1.67 15.74%
95 Middle Tennessee -1.69 17.05%
96 Wake Forest -1.77 19.27%
97 Louisiana Tech -1.78 12.59%
98 Stephen F. Austin -1.79 11.16%
99 Arizona St. -1.85 18.48%
100 North Florida -1.88 12.45%
101 Kent St. -1.89 13.44%
102 Northern Illinois -1.91 11.07%
103 James Madison -1.94 14.41%
104 Mercer -2.05 11.45%
105 Fresno St. -2.09 10.51%
106 Columbia -2.10 9.97%
107 Mississippi -2.12 12.42%
108 Oakland -2.15 11.92%
109 Duquesne -2.16 11.00%
110 Albany -2.24 8.29%
111 Virginia Tech -2.37 10.27%
112 Richmond -2.53 8.91%
113 Memphis -2.54 6.64%
114 Nebraska -2.56 7.38%
115 Tennessee Tech -2.67 5.64%
116 Winthrop -2.69 4.47%
117 Pepperdine -2.71 7.68%
118 Milwaukee -2.72 5.45%
119 New Mexico -2.80 5.97%
120 Oklahoma St. -2.84 6.51%
121 Arkansas -2.89 7.55%
122 College of Charleston -2.94 5.50%
123 Siena -2.98 5.49%
124 Tennessee St. -3.06 2.94%
125 Ohio -3.10 3.87%
126 Montana -3.10 2.48%
127 UNLV -3.11 4.71%
128 Nevada -3.14 4.15%
129 North Carolina St. -3.17 6.55%
130 Buffalo -3.17 3.89%
131 Georgia St. -3.18 3.08%
132 Rhode Island -3.20 4.49%
133 Towson -3.22 3.25%
134 Cal St. Bakersfield -3.26 2.38%
135 Weber St. -3.28 1.93%
136 Southern -3.29 2.16%
137 High Point -3.34 1.96%
138 Louisiana Lafayette -3.35 2.31%
139 Long Beach St. -3.40 4.97%
140 Nebraska Omaha -3.50 3.16%
141 Navy -3.51 2.10%
142 Elon -3.53 3.35%
143 Penn St. -3.56 3.43%
144 Houston Baptist -3.60 1.08%
145 New Mexico St. -3.73 1.49%
146 UNC Asheville -3.74 1.65%
147 Fordham -3.85 0.77%
148 Tennessee -3.91 2.83%
149 East Tennessee St. -4.00 1.41%
150 Wagner -4.05 0.45%
151 TCU -4.09 1.36%
152 Green Bay -4.12 1.17%
153 North Dakota St. -4.19 0.89%
154 UC Santa Barbara -4.21 1.98%
155 Auburn -4.22 1.72%
156 Iona -4.24 0.96%
157 Hampton -4.27 0.38%
158 Utah St. -4.28 0.74%
159 Indiana St. -4.36 1.19%
160 Mississippi St. -4.54 0.56%
161 Ball St. -4.57 0.47%
162 Illinois -4.59 1.15%
163 Cornell -4.64 0.39%
164 Bowling Green -4.66 0.44%
165 Vermont -4.70 0.55%
166 Northern Iowa -4.70 0.92%
167 Incarnate Word -4.79 0.02%
168 UCF -4.83 0.30%
169 Old Dominion -4.87 0.45%
170 Northeastern -4.91 0.73%
171 Coastal Carolina -4.91 0.18%
172 Central Michigan -4.94 0.31%
173 Wright St. -4.95 0.34%
174 Morehead St. -5.06 0.20%
175 Radford -5.18 0.29%
176 Colorado St. -5.25 0.17%
177 Texas Southern -5.28 0.15%
178 Illinois St. -5.39 0.23%
179 Marshall -5.41 0.26%
180 Fairfield -5.41 0.17%
181 Washington St. -5.46 0.18%
182 Idaho -5.52 0.09%
183 New Hampshire -5.54 0.03%
184 Bucknell -5.55 0.10%
185 Eastern Michigan -5.65 0.08%
186 Oral Roberts -5.66 0.21%
187 San Francisco -5.66 0.06%
188 Toledo -5.67 0.11%
189 East Carolina -5.68 0.19%
190 Furman -5.88 0.06%
191 Missouri -5.95 0.07%
192 Jackson St. -6.07 0.01%
193 Western Kentucky -6.11 0.04%
194 NJIT -6.16 0.05%
195 IUPUI -6.24 0.11%
196 Louisiana Monroe -6.28 0.03%
197 Texas St. -6.31 0.01%
198 DePaul -6.36 0.09%
199 Detroit -6.42 0.03%
200 Cal Poly -6.45 0.01%
201 Murray St. -6.49 0.04%
202 South Carolina St. -6.56 0.01%
203 Harvard -6.59 0.01%
204 Eastern Washington -6.67 0.01%
205 Wofford -6.68 0.01%
206 Fairleigh Dickinson -6.69 0.00%
207 Loyola Marymount -6.73 0.02%
208 Loyola Chicago -6.83 0.01%
209 Wyoming -6.91 0.03%
210 Sam Houston St. -6.92 0.00%
211 Arkansas St. -6.92 0.00%
212 Boston College -6.94 0.00%
213 North Dakota -6.95 0.00%
214 Army -6.98 0.00%
215 Florida Gulf Coast -7.00 0.00%
216 Gardner Webb -7.01 0.00%
217 Jacksonville -7.03 0.01%
218 Manhattan -7.04 0.00%
219 Idaho St. -7.05 0.00%
220 Massachusetts -7.06 0.01%
221 Sacramento St. -7.08 0.00%
222 UC Davis -7.21 0.00%
223 Penn -7.32 0.00%
224 Saint Louis -7.41 0.00%
225 Western Michigan -7.45 0.00%
226 South Alabama -7.48 0.00%
227 St. Francis PA -7.49 0.00%
228 UC Riverside -7.52 0.00%
229 Denver -7.54 0.00%
230 Missouri St. -7.54 0.01%
231 South Dakota -7.55 0.02%
232 Saint Peter’s -7.60 0.00%
233 Northern Kentucky -7.64 0.00%
234 Samford -7.66 0.00%
235 Seattle -7.66 0.00%
236 Air Force -7.67 0.00%
237 Boston University -7.69 0.00%
238 Tulane -7.78 0.00%
239 Georgia Southern -7.80 0.00%
240 UTEP -7.83 0.00%
241 Tennessee Martin -7.83 0.00%
242 Youngstown St. -7.85 0.00%
243 Eastern Kentucky -7.88 0.00%
244 UMKC -7.89 0.00%
245 St. John’s -7.93 0.00%
246 FIU -7.99 0.00%
247 Rutgers -8.02 0.00%
248 Dartmouth -8.05 0.00%
249 George Mason -8.06 0.00%
250 Brown -8.09 0.00%
251 Norfolk St. -8.11 0.00%
252 Colgate -8.13 0.00%
253 Western Illinois -8.28 0.00%
254 Montana St. -8.29 0.00%
255 La Salle -8.30 0.00%
256 Mount St. Mary’s -8.31 0.00%
257 Alabama A&M -8.42 0.00%
258 Howard -8.45 0.00%
259 Rider -8.45 0.00%
260 Canisius -8.45 0.00%
261 Western Carolina -8.46 0.00%
262 Savannah St. -8.51 0.00%
263 Eastern Illinois -8.51 0.00%
264 Utah Valley -8.63 0.00%
265 Alcorn St. -8.65 0.00%
266 New Orleans -8.68 0.00%
267 Cal St. Fullerton -8.75 0.00%
268 Minnesota -8.77 0.00%
269 Charlotte -8.86 0.00%
270 LIU Brooklyn -8.92 0.00%
271 Pacific -9.01 0.00%
272 Portland St. -9.02 0.00%
273 Southern Miss -9.03 0.00%
274 Charleston Southern -9.03 0.00%
275 Abilene Christian -9.10 0.00%
276 McNeese St. -9.13 0.00%
277 Austin Peay -9.26 0.00%
278 Lehigh -9.32 0.00%
279 UNC Greensboro -9.32 0.00%
280 San Diego -9.32 0.00%
281 Miami OH -9.33 0.00%
282 Central Arkansas -9.33 0.00%
283 Presbyterian -9.41 0.00%
284 Northern Colorado -9.42 0.00%
285 Appalachian St. -9.42 0.00%
286 Quinnipiac -9.56 0.00%
287 Santa Clara -9.59 0.00%
288 UMass Lowell -9.60 0.00%
289 The Citadel -9.61 0.00%
290 Maine -9.63 0.00%
291 Holy Cross -9.65 0.00%
292 Loyola MD -9.73 0.00%
293 Lamar -9.77 0.00%
294 Cal St. Northridge -9.78 0.00%
295 Maryland Eastern Shore -9.83 0.00%
296 Delaware -10.08 0.00%
297 VMI -10.08 0.00%
298 Alabama St. -10.09 0.00%
299 Campbell -10.11 0.00%
300 Rice -10.24 0.00%
301 Northwestern St. -10.30 0.00%
302 North Texas -10.31 0.00%
303 Cleveland St. -10.32 0.00%
304 Stetson -10.38 0.00%
305 Portland -10.42 0.00%
306 Liberty -10.48 0.00%
307 Kennesaw St. -10.50 0.00%
308 Coppin St. -10.57 0.00%
309 American -10.57 0.00%
310 Southern Utah -10.73 0.00%
311 North Carolina Central -10.78 0.00%
312 Drake -10.78 0.00%
313 St. Francis NY -10.80 0.00%
314 Bethune Cookman -10.85 0.00%
315 Morgan St. -10.97 0.00%
316 Sacred Heart -11.04 0.00%
317 Lafayette -11.07 0.00%
318 Florida Atlantic -11.07 0.00%
319 Troy -11.10 0.00%
320 Bryant -11.12 0.00%
321 Grambling St. -11.12 0.00%
322 Arkansas Pine Bluff -11.30 0.00%
323 San Jose St. -11.33 0.00%
324 South Florida -11.44 0.00%
325 UT Rio Grande Valley -11.71 0.00%
326 Northern Arizona -11.78 0.00%
327 Southeastern Louisiana -11.87 0.00%
328 Binghamton -11.91 0.00%
329 Nicholls St. -11.95 0.00%
330 Drexel -12.14 0.00%
331 Hartford -12.20 0.00%
332 Marist -12.28 0.00%
333 Florida A&M -12.30 0.00%
334 Niagara -12.39 0.00%
335 Southeast Missouri St. -12.68 0.00%
336 Robert Morris -12.70 0.00%
337 Bradley -12.86 0.00%
338 Jacksonville St. -12.87 0.00%
339 USC Upstate -12.88 0.00%
340 North Carolina A&T -12.98 0.00%
341 SIU Edwardsville -12.99 0.00%
342 Lipscomb -13.15 0.00%
343 Longwood -13.16 0.00%
344 Delaware St. -13.19 0.00%
345 Mississippi Valley St. -13.70 0.00%
346 UTSA -13.72 0.00%
347 UMBC -14.10 0.00%
348 Illinois Chicago -14.15 0.00%
349 Prairie View A&M -14.48 0.00%
350 Chicago St. -14.70 0.00%
351 Central Connecticut -16.37 0.00%

 

 

 

 

 

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