I wasn’t near a computer Thursday night, so I had to tweet instead of post. Officially:
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs
Denver Broncos +3, risking $229,590 to win $241,070
That was an exciting finish for Football Outsiders. It ended up cutting the deficit $124,680. There have been a few questions as to what would happen if I had been using the World Cup methodology. In that case, Football Outsiders initial $1M bankroll would currently stand at $627,314.
Now, on to the rest of week two:
Houston Texans @ Carolina Panthers
Carolina Panthers -3, risking $186,918 to win $205,610
Some faith in Cam Newton here.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +10, risking $26,440 to win $22,991
Mostly this is simply a statement that it is very hard to win by 10+ in the NFL.
San Francisco 49ers @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh Steelers -6, risking $81,019 to win $78,659
I’m still bitter the 49ers faced the Chargers instead of a Steelers team that might have given them a game. In related news, I’m old.
Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota Vikings -2.5, risking $236,020 to win $214,564
This is a battle of teams who severely disappointed week one. We’ll see which gets their stuff together.
Arizona Cardinals @ Chicago Bears
Chicago Bears +2, risking $46,972 to win $43,899
This will be a long season in Chicago if they start 0-2 at home.
Tennessee Titans @ Cleveland Browns
Tennessee Titans +1, risking $3,905 to win $3,719
Can Mariota keep his Heisman supremacy intact?
San Diego Chargers @ Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati Bengals -3.5, risking $41,600 to win $41,600
The Chargers and Bengals combined to play three very impressive halves last week. It’s unclear, how much of that was due to Cincinnati facing Oakland.
Atlanta Falcons @ New York Giants
Atlanta Falcons +2.5, risking $49,148 to win $47,717
The more I think of how the Giants managed the final possession vs. Dallas, the more I agree with this:
And that leaves two more games on the early afternoon slate:
St. Louis Rams @ Washington Redskins
St. Louis Rams -3, risking $489,160 to win $407,633
Not a lot of faith in Washington at the moment.
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills
New England Patriots +2, risking $644,325 to win $613,643
I wonder if Patriots fans are a tad overconfident right now:
Then again, the joy of Full-Kelly is that when you are right and you know it, you do very, very well.
One final note before the afternoon games. It has been brought to my attention that there has been some negativity directed to the Football Outsiders staff on Twitter. I am confident that they are doing a good faith effort to provide the best and most accurate projections that they can. In these Days of Awe I ask you all to treat Aaron Schatz and the rest of his team with kindness and respect.
Enjoy the games. I’ll be back in approximately three hours.