World Cup Day 10: Hard Pass

Nate Silver was briefly above $8M after Cameroon defeated Switzerland, but finished yesterday at $7,709,694. Today is the final day of the group stage, and we are going to see something new.

Game 33: England vs. Colombia

England -0.5, Risking 12.16%: $937,288 to win $650,895

Straightforward enough to start the day.

Game 34: France vs. Mexico

Mexico +0.5, Risking 6.99%: $473,391 to win $1,527,068

I’d love to see Mexico pull off the outright upset.

Game 35: Spain vs. South Korea

South Korea -0.5, Risking 11.37%: $896,460 to win $2,285,973 (Edited)

I haven’t been impressed with South Korea’s tactics so far this tournament, but maybe they’ll adjust vs. Spain.

Game 36: Brazil vs. Costa Rica

This is where I had to make an executive decision. Brazil is already slated to play Australia in their next meaningful game. The market is taking the fact that this is meaningless to Brazil into account. As such, I am excluding it from this exercise the same way I ignored the 3-4 game in the 2014 World Cup. For those of you are curious, this is what it would be if I wasn’t skipping it:

Brazil -0.5, Risking 46.76%: $2,610,642 to win $992,640

Thankfully, after today we’ll be heading into the elimination rounds, where Nate will be joined by a friendly rival: Christopher D. Long (@octonion on Twitter).


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