Women’s World Cup, Nate Silver Day 3: Light Treason?

It’s been a rough start to the Women’s World Cup for Nate. He’s 0-4 backing large underdogs, dropping $150,191. Thailand covered the 5.5 goal spread, but without goal distributions I can only bet variations of the 3-Ball lines (win, lose, draw).

Starting today he still has a bankroll of $421,347.

Game 5: Nigeria vs. Sweden

Nigeria +0.5, Risking 14.25%: $60,042 to win $127,749

A win there would get a significant chunk of the lost bankroll back.

Game 6: Cameroon vs. Ecuador

Cameroon -0.5, Risking 31.85%: $174,887 to win $129,546 (Edited)

Nate’s first favorite, and he’s backing them fairly huge. The line has since moved quite a bit in Nate’s favor, so this is looking solid.

Game 7: USA vs. Australia

Australia +0.5, Risking 16.36%: $89,832 to win $390,574 (Edited)

And we’re back on the dogs. Nate was actually willing to sell out his country for quite a bit less than the price offered. He has America winning 68% of the time.

Game 8: Japan vs. Switzerland

Japan -0.5, Risking 10.10%: 59,470 to win $31,816 (Edited)

A win in any of the first three games today will lead to an increase in the amount wagered on Japan, albeit at the market price as of when the win is in the books. A win in game 5 will also effect games 6 and 7, but as games 6 and 7 are simultaneous, a result in one won’t affect the other.

As always best of luck to Nate, except in Game 7.

The amounts risked have been updated to reflect Nigeria’s bet winning and Japan’s bet also presumes a Cameroon win as they are up 2-0 at the time of writing.

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