Women’s World Cup Day 2: Nate Silver gets rich?

Or maybe he’ll die trying. Day 1 did not go well as he dropped $62,524 on underdogs China and New Zealand. Today has a couple of even bigger longshots:

Game 3: Norway vs. Thailand

Thailand +0.5, Risking 12.93%: $65,808 to win $3,224,601

Yes, that’s really an attempt to win over $3M by betting on a 5.5 goal underdog. For the record, it’s possible Nate’s methodology would recommend taking the goal handicap line, but without a scoring distribution breakdown, I cannot make that assumption. I do know that he has Norway at under 86% to win outright, and that’s enough to lead to this high risk, enormous reward play.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/womens-world-cup/

Game 4: Germany vs. Ivory Coast

Ivory Coast +0.5, Risking 4.93%: $21,859 to win $1,071,080

Nate’s playing it safe here, just trying to win $1M on a 4.5 goal underdog. This is a case where Nate sees significantly more doubt than the market sees. Market prices suggest Nate grabs a win today at under 4%. By his own numbers, he should win a wager today around 21% of the time. That’s a pretty huge difference, but if he is a right (and lucky, even by his own standards), then he’ll get paid handsomely. Most likely he’ll start the Women’s World Cup down $150,191.

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