KenPom Selection Sunday Resume Rankings

I’ll run Massey, Sagarin, and BPI later this morning.

Very brief explanation:

WAB is Wins-over-Bubble. For example, a bubble squad would expect to average around 22 wins vs. the Arizona’s complete schedule (counting the Pac 12 tourament).

Bubble percentile is how likely your record is better than that of an an average bubble team facing your schedule. Apologies for using so many significant digits, but that helps us see just how hard it would be to do what the elite teams have done. Duke’s record is a bit better than that of Arizona or Virginia, given their schedule was quite difficult.

These rankings are not designed to tell you who the best teams are. This tells you only how impressive each resume is, and how hard it would be to accomplish what each team has done. Finally, to clear up any confusion, remember WAB is a counting stat, Percentile is a rate stat, so a team like Gonzaga might have a record that’s harder to pull off, while being fewer Wins-Above-Bubble than a team with a tougher schedule, but significantly worse record, like Kansas.

And yes, I am counting Tulsa’s loss to Southeast Oklahoma State. Every. Game. Counts.

Rank School WAB Bubble Percentile
1 Kentucky 13.16 100.0000%
2 Villanova 10.77 99.9996%
3 Wisconsin 9.94 99.9982%
4 Duke 9.71 99.9962%
5 Arizona 9.03 99.9931%
6 Virginia 8.90 99.9920%
7 Gonzaga 8.01 99.9841%
8 Kansas 9.26 99.9737%
9 Notre Dame 7.36 99.9105%
10 Iowa St. 6.94 99.6519%
11 Maryland 6.44 99.5867%
12 Northern Iowa 5.25 99.2784%
13 Louisville 5.16 98.6116%
14 North Carolina 5.52 98.2380%
15 Baylor 5.20 97.8550%
16 Wichita St. 4.25 97.5132%
17 West Virginia 4.50 96.4738%
18 Arkansas 4.41 96.2097%
19 Oklahoma 4.06 94.5461%
20 Oregon 3.52 92.4185%
21 SMU 3.22 91.5238%
22 Georgetown 3.43 91.4032%
23 Utah 3.02 89.6731%
24 VCU 3.14 89.3041%
25 Providence 3.13 88.9804%
26 Butler 2.69 86.0114%
27 Michigan St. 2.71 85.4709%
28 St. John’s 2.19 81.5001%
29 Dayton 2.03 79.5698%
30 Colorado St. 1.83 78.5256%
31 Ohio St. 1.98 78.0141%
32 San Diego St. 1.74 76.1964%
33 Stephen F. Austin 1.40 76.0118%
34 Iowa 1.70 75.0683%
35 Davidson 1.54 74.9081%
36 BYU 1.38 71.4936%
37 Texas 1.36 70.1996%
38 Georgia 1.31 69.5834%
39 North Carolina St. 1.27 68.8705%
40 Xavier 1.06 65.4509%
41 Valparaiso 0.64 60.7291%
42 LSU 0.61 59.1940%
43 Purdue 0.60 59.0651%
44 Temple 0.17 52.1593%
45 UCLA 0.14 51.7620%
46 Oklahoma St. 0.09 51.2651%
47 Miami FL -0.09 48.1295%
48 Murray St. -0.02 48.0088%
49 Old Dominion -0.08 47.3208%
50 Indiana -0.17 47.0317%
51 Cincinnati -0.26 44.9127%
52 Saint Mary’s -0.27 44.3763%
53 Mississippi -0.35 44.0046%
54 Texas A&M -0.40 42.8865%
55 Boise St. -0.56 39.0856%
56 Rhode Island -0.79 35.7724%
57 Wofford -0.80 32.9228%
58 Syracuse -1.05 32.9073%
59 Wyoming -1.03 31.7302%
60 Buffalo -1.02 31.7102%
61 Tulsa -1.10 30.9734%
62 Stanford -1.33 28.9984%
63 Illinois -1.42 27.9958%
64 Harvard -1.39 23.7810%
65 Green Bay -1.50 23.5312%
66 Alabama -1.85 22.4291%
67 UC Davis -1.53 20.6652%
68 Pittsburgh -2.20 18.9493%
69 Vanderbilt -2.24 17.7939%
70 Connecticut -2.23 17.7647%
71 Florida -2.56 16.2544%
72 TCU -2.53 14.6444%
73 Michigan -2.66 13.9762%
74 Central Michigan -2.29 13.4668%
75 Louisiana Tech -2.38 13.2692%
76 Kansas St. -2.79 13.1581%
77 George Washington -2.71 12.4240%
78 California -2.87 11.7932%
79 UTEP -2.63 11.6016%
80 South Carolina -3.10 10.8187%
81 Illinois St. -2.83 10.7846%
82 Seton Hall -3.12 10.1732%
83 Clemson -3.29 9.4428%
84 Iona -2.80 9.3849%
85 Tennessee -3.54 8.3680%
86 Richmond -3.46 8.2148%
87 Minnesota -3.46 8.1054%
88 Arizona St. -3.47 8.0446%
89 Florida St. -3.80 6.5779%
90 Penn St. -3.91 6.2344%
91 Memphis -3.66 6.1171%
92 Sam Houston St. -3.31 4.3286%
93 Oregon St. -4.09 4.1195%
94 Kent St. -3.97 4.0310%
95 Albany -3.55 3.8203%
96 Northwestern -4.50 3.5559%
97 Georgia St. -3.89 3.1328%
98 Washington -4.43 3.1035%
99 Yale -4.20 2.8903%
100 UNLV -4.61 2.7638%
101 Eastern Washington -3.86 2.6749%
102 Pepperdine -4.39 2.5835%
103 Massachusetts -5.05 2.3835%
104 Evansville -4.51 2.0132%
105 St. Bonaventure -5.01 1.6959%
106 Marquette -5.30 1.6730%
107 North Dakota St. -4.36 1.5757%
108 Toledo -5.27 1.5653%
109 Belmont -4.64 1.5501%
110 North Carolina Central -3.78 1.4578%
111 Bowling Green -4.95 1.3641%
112 Hawaii -5.40 1.2160%
113 Colorado -5.74 1.1168%
114 Georgia Southern -4.34 1.1007%
115 La Salle -5.63 1.0966%
116 Chattanooga -4.68 1.0194%
117 Northeastern -5.43 0.9339%
118 UC Irvine -5.44 0.8511%
119 Loyola Chicago -5.22 0.8171%
120 Texas Tech -5.98 0.7789%
121 New Mexico St. -4.92 0.7569%
122 High Point -4.87 0.7460%
123 Akron -6.20 0.6333%
124 UC Santa Barbara -5.91 0.6257%
125 Boston College -6.21 0.6224%
126 South Dakota St. -5.18 0.6177%
127 Creighton -6.32 0.5649%
128 Western Kentucky -5.69 0.5648%
129 Florida Gulf Coast -5.33 0.5136%
130 Auburn -6.89 0.5043%
131 Nebraska -6.46 0.4684%
132 Western Michigan -6.23 0.4343%
133 Coastal Carolina -5.18 0.4323%
134 Eastern Michigan -6.19 0.4143%
135 Wake Forest -6.59 0.4049%
136 Georgia Tech -6.69 0.3963%
137 James Madison -6.06 0.3938%
138 Utah St. -6.06 0.3933%
139 UAB -6.47 0.3455%
140 Rider -5.83 0.3163%
141 Portland -6.51 0.2517%
142 Stony Brook -6.05 0.2489%
143 William & Mary -6.43 0.1987%
144 San Diego -7.17 0.1245%
145 DePaul -7.86 0.0916%
146 Washington St. -7.72 0.0796%
147 Cleveland St. -7.28 0.0651%
148 Eastern Kentucky -6.33 0.0616%
149 Radford -6.76 0.0560%
150 Lafayette -7.14 0.0523%
151 Long Beach St. -8.29 0.0509%
152 St. Francis NY -7.00 0.0463%
153 North Florida -6.72 0.0450%
154 Texas Southern -6.87 0.0390%
155 New Mexico -8.14 0.0358%
156 Northwestern St. -6.80 0.0319%
157 Louisiana Monroe -7.44 0.0274%
158 Montana -7.36 0.0262%
159 Oakland -8.17 0.0244%
160 Charleston Southern -7.09 0.0238%
161 NJIT -6.77 0.0213%
162 Middle Tennessee -8.73 0.0185%
163 USC -9.23 0.0161%
164 Sacramento St. -7.14 0.0150%
165 UNC Wilmington -8.04 0.0122%
166 Incarnate Word -6.78 0.0107%
167 Hofstra -8.25 0.0103%
168 Mississippi St. -9.03 0.0100%
169 Tulane -8.58 0.0097%
170 Indiana St. -8.37 0.0093%
171 Santa Clara -8.96 0.0092%
172 Louisiana Lafayette -8.28 0.0072%
173 Manhattan -8.50 0.0071%
174 Tennessee Martin -7.82 0.0065%
175 Saint Joseph’s -9.12 0.0062%
176 San Francisco -9.21 0.0060%
177 Rutgers -9.94 0.0056%
178 USC Upstate -7.68 0.0053%
179 Bucknell -8.75 0.0052%
180 Gardner Webb -8.55 0.0048%
181 Robert Morris -8.79 0.0046%
182 Norfolk St. -8.13 0.0042%
183 Princeton -8.82 0.0040%
184 Missouri -9.81 0.0040%
185 Oral Roberts -8.82 0.0034%
186 Canisius -9.06 0.0029%
187 Columbia -8.95 0.0027%
188 Northern Illinois -9.43 0.0027%
189 Eastern Illinois -9.01 0.0026%
190 Fresno St. -9.67 0.0020%
191 Monmouth -9.51 0.0019%
192 Texas A&M Corpus Chris -8.45 0.0018%
193 New Hampshire -8.49 0.0015%
194 Vermont -8.75 0.0013%
195 Virginia Tech -10.42 0.0011%
196 Dartmouth -9.26 0.0010%
197 Northern Arizona -9.54 0.0009%
198 Milwaukee -9.64 0.0008%
199 UT Arlington -9.40 0.0007%
200 Lehigh -9.44 0.0005%
201 Quinnipiac -9.91 0.0005%
202 Detroit -10.84 0.0004%
203 Grand Canyon -9.06 0.0003%
204 East Tennessee St. -9.70 0.0003%
205 Air Force -10.11 0.0003%
206 Charlotte -11.00 0.0003%
207 IPFW -9.64 0.0003%
208 North Texas -10.55 0.0003%
209 Alabama St. -7.61 0.0002%
210 Bryant -10.25 0.0002%
211 UCF -10.55 0.0002%
212 Cal Poly -10.35 0.0002%
213 East Carolina -10.96 0.0002%
214 Duquesne -11.14 0.0001%
215 Winthrop -9.59 0.0001%
216 Mercer -10.51 0.0001%
217 Mount St. Mary’s -10.20 0.0001%
218 Miami OH -11.84 0.0001%
219 South Dakota -11.05 0.0001%
220 Pacific -11.20 0.0001%
221 Maryland Eastern Shore -10.00 0.0001%
222 UC Riverside -11.05 0.0001%
223 George Mason -12.02 0.0000%
224 Saint Louis -12.16 0.0000%
225 Houston -11.53 0.0000%
226 Morehead St. -11.43 0.0000%
227 American -11.59 0.0000%
228 Cornell -11.46 0.0000%
229 Portland St. -10.57 0.0000%
230 Fordham -12.55 0.0000%
231 St. Francis PA -10.97 0.0000%
232 UTSA -11.08 0.0000%
233 Seattle -10.78 0.0000%
234 Ohio -12.76 0.0000%
235 Army -11.10 0.0000%
236 Hartford -11.39 0.0000%
237 FIU -12.06 0.0000%
238 Colgate -12.35 0.0000%
239 Holy Cross -11.92 0.0000%
240 Brown -12.35 0.0000%
241 Lamar -10.54 0.0000%
242 Denver -12.39 0.0000%
243 Northern Colorado -11.45 0.0000%
244 Missouri St. -12.63 0.0000%
245 Boston University -12.18 0.0000%
246 McNeese St. -11.31 0.0000%
247 Texas St. -12.24 0.0000%
248 Loyola Marymount -13.54 0.0000%
249 Western Carolina -12.47 0.0000%
250 Appalachian St. -12.46 0.0000%
251 Weber St. -12.05 0.0000%
252 Saint Peter’s -13.31 0.0000%
253 Drexel -13.31 0.0000%
254 Arkansas Little Rock -12.78 0.0000%
255 Elon -12.99 0.0000%
256 Penn -12.89 0.0000%
257 Southeast Missouri St. -12.35 0.0000%
258 UNC Asheville -12.30 0.0000%
259 South Florida -14.45 0.0000%
260 Northern Kentucky -12.27 0.0000%
261 Drake -13.72 0.0000%
262 SIU Edwardsville -12.38 0.0000%
263 Delaware St. -12.98 0.0000%
264 Sacred Heart -13.02 0.0000%
265 Southern Illinois -13.43 0.0000%
266 Hampton -12.99 0.0000%
267 Idaho -12.94 0.0000%
268 Marshall -14.18 0.0000%
269 UMass Lowell -12.81 0.0000%
270 LIU Brooklyn -13.69 0.0000%
271 Navy -13.86 0.0000%
272 Arkansas St. -13.56 0.0000%
273 Rice -14.15 0.0000%
274 Southern Miss -14.16 0.0000%
275 Southern -12.79 0.0000%
276 Wright St. -14.35 0.0000%
277 Delaware -14.24 0.0000%
278 Howard -12.85 0.0000%
279 Siena -14.83 0.0000%
280 Lipscomb -13.19 0.0000%
281 Tennessee Tech -13.69 0.0000%
282 Houston Baptist -12.43 0.0000%
283 Bradley -15.31 0.0000%
284 Nebraska Omaha -13.56 0.0000%
285 Loyola MD -14.76 0.0000%
286 IUPUI -15.36 0.0000%
287 Nevada -15.15 0.0000%
288 Youngstown St. -15.35 0.0000%
289 Jacksonville St. -14.54 0.0000%
290 Towson -15.14 0.0000%
291 South Alabama -15.79 0.0000%
292 Prairie View A&M -14.07 0.0000%
293 Samford -15.01 0.0000%
294 Florida Atlantic -15.11 0.0000%
295 Ball St. -16.00 0.0000%
296 VMI -14.80 0.0000%
297 Cal St. Northridge -16.50 0.0000%
298 Illinois Chicago -17.07 0.0000%
299 UMKC -15.17 0.0000%
300 Cal St. Bakersfield -15.04 0.0000%
301 Troy -14.69 0.0000%
302 Niagara -16.61 0.0000%
303 Cal St. Fullerton -16.57 0.0000%
304 New Orleans -14.44 0.0000%
305 College of Charleston -17.50 0.0000%
306 Western Illinois -15.96 0.0000%
307 Wagner -15.94 0.0000%
308 Southern Utah -15.42 0.0000%
309 The Citadel -15.36 0.0000%
310 Utah Valley -14.85 0.0000%
311 Nicholls St. -14.80 0.0000%
312 Furman -16.86 0.0000%
313 Fairfield -18.15 0.0000%
314 Fairleigh Dickinson -16.89 0.0000%
315 UNC Greensboro -17.18 0.0000%
316 Arkansas Pine Bluff -16.39 0.0000%
317 Austin Peay -17.20 0.0000%
318 Campbell -17.59 0.0000%
319 Presbyterian -17.60 0.0000%
320 Longwood -18.57 0.0000%
321 Abilene Christian -17.03 0.0000%
322 Kennesaw St. -17.74 0.0000%
323 North Dakota -17.70 0.0000%
324 North Carolina A&T -19.54 0.0000%
325 Jackson St. -17.69 0.0000%
326 Jacksonville -18.46 0.0000%
327 Texas Pan American -17.36 0.0000%
328 Alcorn St. -22.82 0.0000%
329 Central Connecticut -21.90 0.0000%
330 Bethune Cookman -18.03 0.0000%
331 Alabama A&M -17.27 0.0000%
332 Coppin St. -18.32 0.0000%
333 Morgan St. -20.08 0.0000%
334 Montana St. -18.24 0.0000%
335 Marist -20.22 0.0000%
336 San Jose St. -20.91 0.0000%
337 Tennessee St. -20.85 0.0000%
338 South Carolina St. -18.28 0.0000%
339 Mississippi Valley St. -22.44 0.0000%
340 Savannah St. -17.67 0.0000%
341 Chicago St. -19.40 0.0000%
342 UMBC -21.44 0.0000%
343 Stetson -18.34 0.0000%
344 Maine -22.23 0.0000%
345 Southeastern Louisiana -18.36 0.0000%
346 Liberty -20.32 0.0000%
347 Grambling St. -23.93 0.0000%
348 Central Arkansas -22.82 0.0000%
349 Florida A&M -23.77 0.0000%
350 Binghamton -20.65 0.0000%
351 Idaho St. -19.68 0.0000%
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