Every. Game. Counts. Cincinnati takes care of business: March 9th update

Cincinnati had been on the wrong side of the ledger for a few weeks, but winning five games in a row has propelled them above the Mendoza-line. Murray St. no longer has any opportunities to improve their resume, and must wait and hope that the committee favors them. There seems to be a consensus as to the top 4 seeds, but I’m not convinced Wisconsin doesn’t control their own destiny. Either Duke or Virginia has one more loss remaining before selection Sunday, so if Wisconsin wins out I expect them to move up to the 1-line and avoid an Elite Eight matchup with Kentucky.

There is a pretty clear cutoff between the 2-seed  and 3-seed lines between Kansas and Maryland. Maryland has put together an excellent resume, but they’re currently 32nd in the KenPom rankings for a reason. If I’m a frisky 14-seed, Maryland is definitely the team I want to take swing at. On the other hand, I’m not sure how excited I’d be to see Utah or Oklahoma in my region.

We’ll see who ends up in the field in a week. For now, here are the KenPom-based resume rankings:

If you have any questions, feel free to shoot them to @sethburn on twitter or email at that handle at gmail.

Rank School WAB Bubble Percentile
1 Kentucky 12.30 100.0000%
2 Villanova 9.35 99.9975%
3 Duke 9.36 99.9964%
4 Virginia 8.87 99.9963%
5 Wisconsin 9.06 99.9953%
6 Arizona 7.73 99.9723%
7 Gonzaga 7.22 99.9612%
8 Kansas 8.22 99.9386%
9 Maryland 6.30 99.6549%
10 Notre Dame 5.47 99.2687%
11 Northern Iowa 5.14 99.2057%
12 Louisville 5.48 99.2037%
13 Iowa St. 4.95 97.8314%
14 Baylor 4.97 97.7473%
15 Wichita St. 4.18 97.3667%
16 West Virginia 4.74 97.3655%
17 North Carolina 3.85 93.9310%
18 Oklahoma 3.70 93.4860%
19 Arkansas 3.58 93.1848%
20 Georgetown 3.35 91.6915%
21 Utah 2.89 89.8984%
22 Butler 3.05 89.4765%
23 Providence 2.80 86.9429%
24 SMU 2.44 85.7661%
25 Oregon 2.46 85.0776%
26 St. John’s 2.42 84.3769%
27 Colorado St. 2.06 82.3839%
28 Iowa 2.23 81.9381%
29 San Diego St. 1.85 79.0746%
30 VCU 1.97 79.0554%
31 Davidson 1.60 76.9220%
32 Ohio St. 1.76 76.1429%
33 LSU 1.44 72.0305%
34 BYU 1.32 71.4210%
35 Texas 1.40 71.2676%
36 Michigan St. 1.39 71.0853%
37 Georgia 1.36 70.9545%
38 Dayton 1.27 70.1236%
39 Stephen F. Austin 0.91 67.9587%
40 North Carolina St. 1.13 67.3429%
41 Old Dominion 0.55 58.8846%
42 Purdue 0.43 56.5215%
43 Texas A&M 0.35 55.1052%
44 Cincinnati 0.27 53.8847%
45 Oklahoma St. 0.21 53.2650%
46 Mississippi 0.15 51.8815%
47 Temple 0.10 50.9390%
48 Valparaiso 0.06 49.5388%
49 UCLA 0.00 49.4878%
50 Indiana -0.05 48.9366%
51 Xavier -0.05 48.7830%
52 Boise St. -0.04 48.0622%
53 Miami FL -0.11 47.5721%
54 Murray St. -0.26 42.9811%
55 Saint Mary’s -0.38 42.5041%
56 Tulsa -0.67 37.3536%
57 Rhode Island -0.76 35.3833%
58 Illinois -1.07 32.6512%
59 Wofford -0.85 32.1194%
60 Syracuse -1.21 30.5392%
61 Green Bay -1.03 30.0383%
62 UC Davis -0.93 29.4153%
63 Alabama -1.43 27.3472%
64 Stanford -1.52 25.5958%
65 Vanderbilt -1.65 24.1813%
66 Pittsburgh -1.89 21.8522%
67 Buffalo -1.81 19.8523%
68 Kansas St. -2.25 17.9360%
69 Harvard -1.82 17.2132%
70 Louisiana Tech -1.94 16.7095%
71 UTEP -2.05 16.5423%
72 Iona -2.02 16.0314%
73 George Washington -2.27 15.6443%
74 Seton Hall -2.53 14.6932%
75 Central Michigan -2.08 14.2879%
76 Wyoming -2.33 13.4394%
77 TCU -2.58 13.3646%
78 Arizona St. -2.75 12.7474%
79 Florida -2.91 12.5742%
80 Clemson -2.82 12.5150%
81 Michigan -2.86 11.4874%
82 Illinois St. -2.88 10.3724%
83 Richmond -3.10 10.1126%
84 California -3.08 9.6742%
85 South Carolina -3.25 8.6015%
86 Minnesota -3.29 8.4701%
87 Memphis -3.20 8.2811%
88 Tennessee -3.65 6.8457%
89 Connecticut -3.51 6.5126%
90 Kent St. -3.40 6.1051%
91 Oregon St. -3.61 5.6289%
92 Northwestern -4.09 4.6981%
93 Sam Houston St. -3.06 4.6126%
94 Florida St. -4.15 4.5800%
95 Washington -3.95 4.3087%
96 Yale -3.69 4.1668%
97 Penn St. -4.20 4.1599%
98 North Carolina Central -2.97 3.5698%
99 Massachusetts -4.63 3.1228%
100 Pepperdine -4.13 3.0719%
101 UNLV -4.42 2.8837%
102 Albany -3.96 2.1686%
103 St. Bonaventure -4.67 2.0369%
104 Bowling Green -4.46 1.9212%
105 Georgia St. -4.26 1.8783%
106 Evansville -4.63 1.7047%
107 Toledo -4.98 1.6999%
108 Marquette -5.40 1.3211%
109 Belmont -4.83 1.1941%
110 Eastern Washington -4.36 1.1565%
111 La Salle -5.41 1.1111%
112 Hawaii -5.20 1.0701%
113 Western Kentucky -5.00 1.0342%
114 South Dakota St. -4.61 0.9457%
115 Texas Tech -5.74 0.9087%
116 Colorado -5.67 0.9087%
117 UC Santa Barbara -5.45 0.8264%
118 Wake Forest -5.91 0.7856%
119 Chattanooga -4.86 0.7776%
120 Nebraska -5.88 0.7698%
121 Loyola Chicago -5.30 0.7431%
122 High Point -4.87 0.7150%
123 Utah St. -5.46 0.6743%
124 Georgia Tech -6.13 0.6734%
125 Georgia Southern -4.62 0.6342%
126 North Dakota St. -4.87 0.6339%
127 Northeastern -5.74 0.5727%
128 Creighton -6.10 0.5657%
129 New Mexico St. -5.06 0.5268%
130 Stony Brook -5.34 0.5198%
131 Western Michigan -5.85 0.5180%
132 Florida Gulf Coast -5.39 0.4594%
133 Boston College -6.27 0.4593%
134 Portland -5.98 0.3990%
135 Coastal Carolina -5.26 0.3682%
136 James Madison -6.11 0.3576%
137 William & Mary -5.81 0.3569%
138 Eastern Michigan -6.13 0.2757%
139 UC Irvine -6.08 0.2689%
140 Rider -5.94 0.2685%
141 Akron -6.56 0.2337%
142 DePaul -7.28 0.1626%
143 Washington St. -7.08 0.1402%
144 San Diego -7.22 0.1064%
145 St. Francis NY -6.28 0.1043%
146 Long Beach St. -7.66 0.0969%
147 Auburn -7.94 0.0868%
148 New Mexico -7.39 0.0857%
149 Radford -6.76 0.0553%
150 Cleveland St. -7.39 0.0536%
151 UAB -7.50 0.0485%
152 Eastern Kentucky -6.44 0.0479%
153 Louisiana Monroe -6.85 0.0462%
154 North Florida -6.76 0.0402%
155 Northwestern St. -6.46 0.0351%
156 Tulane -7.75 0.0294%
157 Mississippi St. -8.21 0.0280%
158 Lafayette -7.40 0.0275%
159 Sacramento St. -6.58 0.0228%
160 Charleston Southern -7.11 0.0220%
161 Oakland -8.36 0.0181%
162 NJIT -6.86 0.0164%
163 Montana -7.13 0.0153%
164 Texas Southern -7.23 0.0125%
165 Saint Joseph’s -8.56 0.0117%
166 UNC Wilmington -8.07 0.0114%
167 Norfolk St. -7.34 0.0113%
168 Santa Clara -8.95 0.0090%
169 Indiana St. -8.39 0.0086%
170 Louisiana Lafayette -7.83 0.0085%
171 Hofstra -8.36 0.0084%
172 Rutgers -9.49 0.0082%
173 Incarnate Word -6.88 0.0081%
174 USC -9.28 0.0080%
175 Missouri -9.23 0.0074%
176 Oral Roberts -8.15 0.0073%
177 Northern Illinois -8.80 0.0056%
178 Tennessee Martin -7.94 0.0047%
179 San Francisco -9.30 0.0045%
180 Gardner Webb -8.57 0.0045%
181 Middle Tennessee -8.93 0.0042%
182 USC Upstate -7.76 0.0042%
183 Bucknell -8.91 0.0038%
184 Manhattan -8.73 0.0036%
185 Fresno St. -9.17 0.0033%
186 Princeton -8.89 0.0030%
187 Texas A&M Corpus Chris -7.87 0.0029%
188 Robert Morris -8.97 0.0026%
189 Canisius -9.14 0.0025%
190 Columbia -9.08 0.0020%
191 Eastern Illinois -9.11 0.0020%
192 Northern Arizona -8.80 0.0018%
193 Monmouth -9.56 0.0017%
194 UT Arlington -8.73 0.0017%
195 New Hampshire -8.52 0.0013%
196 Alabama St. -6.71 0.0011%
197 Vermont -8.83 0.0010%
198 UCF -9.72 0.0008%
199 Virginia Tech -10.23 0.0008%
200 Dartmouth -9.36 0.0008%
201 North Texas -9.85 0.0007%
202 Milwaukee -9.79 0.0006%
203 Charlotte -10.38 0.0006%
204 Lehigh -9.49 0.0005%
205 Quinnipiac -9.96 0.0004%
206 Cal Poly -9.70 0.0004%
207 Grand Canyon -9.07 0.0003%
208 Maryland Eastern Shore -9.16 0.0003%
209 Detroit -10.95 0.0003%
210 Miami OH -10.99 0.0003%
211 East Tennessee St. -9.76 0.0003%
212 Air Force -9.85 0.0002%
213 Duquesne -10.66 0.0002%
214 IPFW -9.80 0.0002%
215 George Mason -11.29 0.0002%
216 Bryant -10.32 0.0002%
217 East Carolina -10.75 0.0002%
218 South Dakota -10.38 0.0001%
219 Saint Louis -11.41 0.0001%
220 American -10.68 0.0001%
221 UC Riverside -10.45 0.0001%
222 Winthrop -9.66 0.0001%
223 Mercer -10.48 0.0001%
224 Mount St. Mary’s -10.27 0.0001%
225 UTSA -10.24 0.0001%
226 Portland St. -9.87 0.0001%
227 Pacific -11.21 0.0001%
228 Houston -11.10 0.0000%
229 Morehead St. -11.51 0.0000%
230 Ohio -12.12 0.0000%
231 Cornell -11.58 0.0000%
232 St. Francis PA -11.05 0.0000%
233 Seattle -10.30 0.0000%
234 Fordham -12.39 0.0000%
235 Army -11.17 0.0000%
236 Northern Colorado -10.70 0.0000%
237 Hartford -11.46 0.0000%
238 FIU -11.61 0.0000%
239 Holy Cross -11.94 0.0000%
240 Colgate -12.38 0.0000%
241 McNeese St. -10.60 0.0000%
242 Weber St. -11.27 0.0000%
243 Brown -12.45 0.0000%
244 Arkansas Little Rock -11.98 0.0000%
245 Lamar -10.69 0.0000%
246 Missouri St. -12.69 0.0000%
247 Denver -12.52 0.0000%
248 Boston University -12.23 0.0000%
249 Texas St. -11.78 0.0000%
250 Loyola Marymount -13.49 0.0000%
251 Penn -12.28 0.0000%
252 Western Carolina -12.49 0.0000%
253 Saint Peter’s -13.40 0.0000%
254 Appalachian St. -12.66 0.0000%
255 South Florida -13.85 0.0000%
256 Elon -13.09 0.0000%
257 Southeast Missouri St. -12.39 0.0000%
258 Drexel -13.52 0.0000%
259 UNC Asheville -12.35 0.0000%
260 Idaho -12.28 0.0000%
261 Marshall -13.58 0.0000%
262 Northern Kentucky -12.36 0.0000%
263 Drake -13.84 0.0000%
264 Sacred Heart -13.00 0.0000%
265 Howard -12.01 0.0000%
266 SIU Edwardsville -12.50 0.0000%
267 Southern Illinois -13.49 0.0000%
268 Delaware St. -12.53 0.0000%
269 UMass Lowell -12.84 0.0000%
270 LIU Brooklyn -13.75 0.0000%
271 Rice -13.65 0.0000%
272 Navy -14.00 0.0000%
273 Southern -12.13 0.0000%
274 Arkansas St. -13.71 0.0000%
275 Wright St. -14.41 0.0000%
276 Siena -14.84 0.0000%
277 Southern Miss -14.31 0.0000%
278 Nevada -14.45 0.0000%
279 Delaware -14.41 0.0000%
280 Lipscomb -13.27 0.0000%
281 Tennessee Tech -13.77 0.0000%
282 Bradley -15.42 0.0000%
283 Houston Baptist -12.52 0.0000%
284 Loyola MD -14.78 0.0000%
285 Nebraska Omaha -13.69 0.0000%
286 IUPUI -15.49 0.0000%
287 Hampton -13.42 0.0000%
288 Ball St. -15.23 0.0000%
289 Prairie View A&M -13.32 0.0000%
290 Youngstown St. -15.44 0.0000%
291 South Alabama -15.31 0.0000%
292 Towson -15.26 0.0000%
293 Samford -14.98 0.0000%
294 Jacksonville St. -14.66 0.0000%
295 Cal St. Northridge -15.98 0.0000%
296 UMKC -14.37 0.0000%
297 Florida Atlantic -15.25 0.0000%
298 VMI -14.85 0.0000%
299 Illinois Chicago -17.16 0.0000%
300 Cal St. Bakersfield -14.46 0.0000%
301 New Orleans -13.62 0.0000%
302 Nicholls St. -13.98 0.0000%
303 Utah Valley -14.01 0.0000%
304 Niagara -16.59 0.0000%
305 Troy -14.79 0.0000%
306 Cal St. Fullerton -16.72 0.0000%
307 Furman -16.15 0.0000%
308 Wagner -16.00 0.0000%
309 College of Charleston -17.61 0.0000%
310 The Citadel -15.41 0.0000%
311 Southern Utah -15.53 0.0000%
312 Western Illinois -16.13 0.0000%
313 Fairfield -18.19 0.0000%
314 UNC Greensboro -17.21 0.0000%
315 Fairleigh Dickinson -16.99 0.0000%
316 Austin Peay -17.27 0.0000%
317 Arkansas Pine Bluff -16.56 0.0000%
318 Campbell -17.53 0.0000%
319 Texas Pan American -16.40 0.0000%
320 Presbyterian -17.65 0.0000%
321 Longwood -18.61 0.0000%
322 Kennesaw St. -17.78 0.0000%
323 Jackson St. -16.89 0.0000%
324 Binghamton -20.90 0.0000%
325 Abilene Christian -17.08 0.0000%
326 Southeastern Louisiana -17.48 0.0000%
327 Savannah St. -16.83 0.0000%
328 Bethune Cookman -17.09 0.0000%
329 Chicago St. -18.55 0.0000%
330 Stetson -18.36 0.0000%
331 Maine -22.30 0.0000%
332 Montana St. -18.49 0.0000%
333 Morgan St. -19.30 0.0000%
334 North Dakota -17.81 0.0000%
335 San Jose St. -21.08 0.0000%
336 Idaho St. -19.79 0.0000%
337 Alcorn St. -22.06 0.0000%
338 South Carolina St. -17.45 0.0000%
339 Tennessee St. -21.01 0.0000%
340 Central Arkansas -22.87 0.0000%
341 Mississippi Valley St. -21.63 0.0000%
342 Alabama A&M -16.43 0.0000%
343 Florida A&M -23.80 0.0000%
344 Jacksonville -18.50 0.0000%
345 Marist -20.32 0.0000%
346 Liberty -20.40 0.0000%
347 Coppin St. -17.78 0.0000%
348 UMBC -21.49 0.0000%
349 Central Connecticut -21.98 0.0000%
350 Grambling St. -23.12 0.0000%
351 North Carolina A&T -18.56 0.0000%
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