Every. Game. Counts. Tulsa has some work to do: March 8th Edition

I tried to build an accurate translation of the non-D1 games, but in the I ended using a constant of a Pythag of .0001. The reason I am bringing this up is because of Tulsa. Tulsa lost a home game to Southeast Oklahoma St. on December 10th. If I were to remove all non-D1 games from the spreadsheet Tulsa would jump up to a WAB of 0.87 and a Bubble Percentile of around 65.2169%. However, it wasn’t an exhibition game. I have no idea if the Committee will take it into account. As is, we’ll find out in one week. Enjoy the games.

Also, I still feel bad for Murray St.

For an explanation of Wins-Above-Bubble and Bubble Percentile, they are explained here: https://sethburn.wordpress.com/2015/03/04/every-game-counts-bubble-percentile-texas-cincinnati-march-4th-edition/

Rank School WAB Bubble Percentile
1 Kentucky 12.30 100.0000%
2 Villanova 9.35 99.9975%
3 Duke 9.36 99.9964%
4 Virginia 8.87 99.9963%
5 Wisconsin 8.53 99.9912%
6 Arizona 7.73 99.9723%
7 Gonzaga 7.22 99.9612%
8 Kansas 8.22 99.9386%
9 Maryland 6.15 99.6088%
10 Notre Dame 5.47 99.2687%
11 Louisville 5.48 99.2037%
12 Northern Iowa 4.76 98.8575%
13 Iowa St. 4.95 97.8314%
14 Baylor 4.97 97.7473%
15 Wichita St. 4.18 97.3667%
16 West Virginia 4.74 97.3655%
17 North Carolina 3.85 93.9310%
18 Oklahoma 3.70 93.4860%
19 Arkansas 3.58 93.1848%
20 Georgetown 3.35 91.6915%
21 Utah 2.89 89.8984%
22 Butler 3.05 89.4765%
23 Providence 2.80 86.9429%
24 Oregon 2.46 85.0776%
25 St. John’s 2.42 84.3769%
26 Colorado St. 2.06 82.3839%
27 Iowa 2.23 81.9381%
28 SMU 1.96 80.8172%
29 San Diego St. 1.85 79.0746%
30 VCU 1.97 79.0554%
31 Ohio St. 1.89 78.0305%
32 Davidson 1.60 76.9220%
33 LSU 1.44 72.0305%
34 BYU 1.32 71.4210%
35 Texas 1.40 71.2676%
36 Michigan St. 1.39 71.0853%
37 Georgia 1.36 70.9545%
38 Dayton 1.27 70.1236%
39 Stephen F. Austin 0.91 67.9587%
40 North Carolina St. 1.13 67.3429%
41 Old Dominion 0.55 58.8846%
42 Purdue 0.43 56.5215%
43 Texas A&M 0.35 55.1052%
44 Oklahoma St. 0.21 53.2650%
45 Mississippi 0.15 51.8815%
46 Temple 0.10 50.9390%
47 Valparaiso 0.06 49.5388%
48 UCLA 0.00 49.4878%
49 Indiana -0.05 48.9366%
50 Xavier -0.05 48.7830%
51 Boise St. -0.04 48.0622%
52 Miami FL -0.11 47.5721%
53 Tulsa -0.13 46.7812%
54 Cincinnati -0.16 46.4578%
55 Murray St. -0.26 42.9811%
56 Saint Mary’s -0.38 42.5041%
57 Rhode Island -0.76 35.3833%
58 Illinois -1.07 32.6512%
59 Syracuse -1.21 30.5392%
60 Wofford -0.95 30.1792%
61 Green Bay -1.03 30.0383%
62 UC Davis -0.93 29.4153%
63 Alabama -1.43 27.3472%
64 Stanford -1.52 25.5958%
65 Vanderbilt -1.65 24.1813%
66 Pittsburgh -1.89 21.8522%
67 Buffalo -1.81 19.8523%
68 Kansas St. -2.25 17.9360%
69 Harvard -1.82 17.2132%
70 Louisiana Tech -1.94 16.7095%
71 UTEP -2.05 16.5423%
72 George Washington -2.27 15.6443%
73 Seton Hall -2.53 14.6932%
74 Central Michigan -2.08 14.2879%
75 Iona -2.17 14.0866%
76 Wyoming -2.33 13.4394%
77 TCU -2.58 13.3646%
78 Arizona St. -2.75 12.7474%
79 Minnesota -2.66 12.6545%
80 Illinois St. -2.55 12.6322%
81 Florida -2.91 12.5742%
82 Memphis -2.58 12.5217%
83 Clemson -2.82 12.5150%
84 Michigan -2.86 11.4874%
85 Richmond -3.10 10.1126%
86 California -3.08 9.6742%
87 South Carolina -3.25 8.6015%
88 Tennessee -3.65 6.8457%
89 Connecticut -3.51 6.5126%
90 Kent St. -3.40 6.1051%
91 Oregon St. -3.61 5.6289%
92 Northwestern -4.09 4.6981%
93 Sam Houston St. -3.06 4.6126%
94 Florida St. -4.15 4.5800%
95 Washington -3.95 4.3087%
96 Yale -3.69 4.1668%
97 North Carolina Central -2.97 3.5698%
98 Massachusetts -4.63 3.1228%
99 Pepperdine -4.13 3.0719%
100 Penn St. -4.51 2.9028%
101 UNLV -4.42 2.8837%
102 St. Bonaventure -4.67 2.0369%
103 Bowling Green -4.46 1.9212%
104 Georgia St. -4.26 1.8783%
105 Evansville -4.63 1.7047%
106 Toledo -4.98 1.6999%
107 Albany -4.19 1.4870%
108 Marquette -5.40 1.3211%
109 Belmont -4.83 1.1941%
110 Eastern Washington -4.36 1.1565%
111 La Salle -5.41 1.1111%
112 Hawaii -5.20 1.0701%
113 Nebraska -5.51 1.0385%
114 Western Kentucky -5.00 1.0342%
115 South Dakota St. -4.61 0.9457%
116 Texas Tech -5.74 0.9087%
117 Colorado -5.67 0.9087%
118 UC Santa Barbara -5.45 0.8264%
119 Wake Forest -5.91 0.7856%
120 Chattanooga -4.86 0.7776%
121 Loyola Chicago -5.30 0.7431%
122 High Point -4.87 0.7150%
123 Utah St. -5.46 0.6743%
124 Georgia Tech -6.13 0.6734%
125 Georgia Southern -4.62 0.6342%
126 North Dakota St. -4.87 0.6339%
127 Creighton -6.10 0.5657%
128 New Mexico St. -5.06 0.5268%
129 Western Michigan -5.85 0.5180%
130 Florida Gulf Coast -5.39 0.4594%
131 Boston College -6.27 0.4593%
132 Northeastern -5.90 0.4284%
133 Portland -5.98 0.3990%
134 James Madison -6.11 0.3576%
135 Stony Brook -5.52 0.3531%
136 Eastern Michigan -6.13 0.2757%
137 UC Irvine -6.08 0.2689%
138 Rider -5.94 0.2685%
139 Akron -6.56 0.2337%
140 William & Mary -6.04 0.2246%
141 Coastal Carolina -5.51 0.2076%
142 DePaul -7.28 0.1626%
143 Washington St. -7.08 0.1402%
144 San Diego -7.22 0.1064%
145 St. Francis NY -6.28 0.1043%
146 Long Beach St. -7.66 0.0969%
147 Auburn -7.94 0.0868%
148 New Mexico -7.39 0.0857%
149 Radford -6.76 0.0553%
150 Cleveland St. -7.39 0.0536%
151 UAB -7.50 0.0485%
152 Eastern Kentucky -6.44 0.0479%
153 Louisiana Monroe -6.85 0.0462%
154 Northwestern St. -6.46 0.0351%
155 UNC Wilmington -7.30 0.0306%
156 Tulane -7.75 0.0294%
157 Mississippi St. -8.21 0.0280%
158 Sacramento St. -6.58 0.0228%
159 Hofstra -7.58 0.0225%
160 Charleston Southern -7.11 0.0220%
161 Lafayette -7.49 0.0205%
162 North Florida -6.99 0.0205%
163 Oakland -8.36 0.0181%
164 NJIT -6.86 0.0164%
165 Montana -7.13 0.0153%
166 USC Upstate -6.92 0.0146%
167 Texas Southern -7.23 0.0125%
168 Saint Joseph’s -8.56 0.0117%
169 Norfolk St. -7.34 0.0113%
170 Bucknell -8.11 0.0111%
171 Santa Clara -8.95 0.0090%
172 Indiana St. -8.39 0.0086%
173 Louisiana Lafayette -7.83 0.0085%
174 Rutgers -9.49 0.0082%
175 Incarnate Word -6.88 0.0081%
176 USC -9.28 0.0080%
177 Missouri -9.23 0.0074%
178 Oral Roberts -8.22 0.0057%
179 Northern Illinois -8.80 0.0056%
180 New Hampshire -7.68 0.0048%
181 Tennessee Martin -7.94 0.0047%
182 San Francisco -9.30 0.0045%
183 Gardner Webb -8.57 0.0045%
184 Monmouth -8.84 0.0043%
185 Middle Tennessee -8.93 0.0042%
186 Fresno St. -9.17 0.0033%
187 Princeton -8.89 0.0030%
188 Texas A&M Corpus Chris -7.87 0.0029%
189 Robert Morris -8.97 0.0026%
190 Vermont -8.13 0.0026%
191 Canisius -9.14 0.0025%
192 Manhattan -8.88 0.0022%
193 Columbia -9.08 0.0020%
194 Eastern Illinois -9.11 0.0020%
195 Northern Arizona -8.80 0.0018%
196 UT Arlington -8.73 0.0017%
197 Alabama St. -6.71 0.0011%
198 IPFW -8.89 0.0009%
199 East Carolina -9.82 0.0008%
200 UCF -9.72 0.0008%
201 Virginia Tech -10.23 0.0008%
202 Dartmouth -9.36 0.0008%
203 North Texas -9.85 0.0007%
204 Mercer -9.52 0.0006%
205 Milwaukee -9.79 0.0006%
206 Charlotte -10.38 0.0006%
207 Lehigh -9.49 0.0005%
208 Winthrop -8.80 0.0005%
209 Quinnipiac -9.96 0.0004%
210 Cal Poly -9.70 0.0004%
211 Grand Canyon -9.07 0.0003%
212 Maryland Eastern Shore -9.16 0.0003%
213 Detroit -10.95 0.0003%
214 Miami OH -10.99 0.0003%
215 East Tennessee St. -9.76 0.0003%
216 Air Force -9.85 0.0002%
217 Duquesne -10.66 0.0002%
218 George Mason -11.29 0.0002%
219 Bryant -10.32 0.0002%
220 Saint Louis -11.41 0.0001%
221 UC Riverside -10.45 0.0001%
222 Mount St. Mary’s -10.27 0.0001%
223 American -10.80 0.0001%
224 UTSA -10.24 0.0001%
225 South Dakota -10.58 0.0001%
226 Portland St. -9.87 0.0001%
227 Pacific -11.21 0.0001%
228 Morehead St. -11.51 0.0000%
229 Ohio -12.12 0.0000%
230 Cornell -11.58 0.0000%
231 Houston -11.29 0.0000%
232 Colgate -11.57 0.0000%
233 St. Francis PA -11.05 0.0000%
234 Seattle -10.30 0.0000%
235 Fordham -12.39 0.0000%
236 Army -11.17 0.0000%
237 Northern Colorado -10.70 0.0000%
238 Hartford -11.46 0.0000%
239 FIU -11.61 0.0000%
240 Holy Cross -11.94 0.0000%
241 Weber St. -11.27 0.0000%
242 Brown -12.45 0.0000%
243 Arkansas Little Rock -11.98 0.0000%
244 McNeese St. -10.61 0.0000%
245 Lamar -10.69 0.0000%
246 Western Carolina -11.79 0.0000%
247 Saint Peter’s -12.56 0.0000%
248 Missouri St. -12.69 0.0000%
249 Denver -12.52 0.0000%
250 Boston University -12.23 0.0000%
251 Texas St. -11.78 0.0000%
252 Loyola Marymount -13.49 0.0000%
253 Penn -12.28 0.0000%
254 Appalachian St. -12.66 0.0000%
255 South Florida -13.85 0.0000%
256 Elon -13.09 0.0000%
257 Southeast Missouri St. -12.39 0.0000%
258 Drexel -13.52 0.0000%
259 UNC Asheville -12.35 0.0000%
260 Idaho -12.28 0.0000%
261 Marshall -13.58 0.0000%
262 Northern Kentucky -12.36 0.0000%
263 Drake -13.84 0.0000%
264 Sacred Heart -13.00 0.0000%
265 Howard -12.01 0.0000%
266 SIU Edwardsville -12.50 0.0000%
267 Southern Illinois -13.49 0.0000%
268 Delaware St. -12.53 0.0000%
269 UMass Lowell -12.84 0.0000%
270 LIU Brooklyn -13.75 0.0000%
271 Rice -13.65 0.0000%
272 Navy -14.00 0.0000%
273 Southern -12.13 0.0000%
274 Arkansas St. -13.71 0.0000%
275 Wright St. -14.41 0.0000%
276 IUPUI -14.62 0.0000%
277 Siena -14.84 0.0000%
278 Southern Miss -14.31 0.0000%
279 Nevada -14.45 0.0000%
280 Delaware -14.41 0.0000%
281 Lipscomb -13.27 0.0000%
282 Tennessee Tech -13.77 0.0000%
283 Bradley -15.42 0.0000%
284 Houston Baptist -12.52 0.0000%
285 Loyola MD -14.78 0.0000%
286 Nebraska Omaha -13.69 0.0000%
287 Hampton -13.42 0.0000%
288 Ball St. -15.23 0.0000%
289 Prairie View A&M -13.32 0.0000%
290 Youngstown St. -15.44 0.0000%
291 South Alabama -15.31 0.0000%
292 Towson -15.26 0.0000%
293 Samford -14.98 0.0000%
294 Jacksonville St. -14.66 0.0000%
295 Cal St. Northridge -15.98 0.0000%
296 UMKC -14.37 0.0000%
297 Florida Atlantic -15.25 0.0000%
298 VMI -14.85 0.0000%
299 Illinois Chicago -17.16 0.0000%
300 Cal St. Bakersfield -14.46 0.0000%
301 New Orleans -13.62 0.0000%
302 Nicholls St. -13.98 0.0000%
303 Utah Valley -14.01 0.0000%
304 Niagara -16.59 0.0000%
305 Troy -14.79 0.0000%
306 Cal St. Fullerton -16.72 0.0000%
307 Wagner -16.00 0.0000%
308 College of Charleston -17.61 0.0000%
309 The Citadel -15.41 0.0000%
310 Southern Utah -15.53 0.0000%
311 Western Illinois -16.13 0.0000%
312 Furman -16.29 0.0000%
313 Fairfield -18.19 0.0000%
314 Fairleigh Dickinson -16.99 0.0000%
315 UNC Greensboro -17.21 0.0000%
316 Austin Peay -17.27 0.0000%
317 Arkansas Pine Bluff -16.56 0.0000%
318 Campbell -17.53 0.0000%
319 Texas Pan American -16.40 0.0000%
320 Presbyterian -17.65 0.0000%
321 Longwood -18.61 0.0000%
322 Kennesaw St. -17.78 0.0000%
323 Savannah St. -16.83 0.0000%
324 San Jose St. -21.08 0.0000%
325 Montana St. -18.49 0.0000%
326 Morgan St. -19.30 0.0000%
327 Abilene Christian -17.08 0.0000%
328 North Carolina A&T -18.56 0.0000%
329 Alabama A&M -16.43 0.0000%
330 Central Arkansas -21.92 0.0000%
331 Maine -22.30 0.0000%
332 Southeastern Louisiana -17.48 0.0000%
333 UMBC -21.49 0.0000%
334 Jacksonville -18.50 0.0000%
335 Marist -20.32 0.0000%
336 Liberty -20.40 0.0000%
337 Coppin St. -17.78 0.0000%
338 Stetson -18.36 0.0000%
339 Binghamton -20.90 0.0000%
340 Jackson St. -16.89 0.0000%
341 South Carolina St. -17.45 0.0000%
342 Idaho St. -19.79 0.0000%
343 Grambling St. -23.12 0.0000%
344 Tennessee St. -21.01 0.0000%
345 North Dakota -17.81 0.0000%
346 Central Connecticut -21.98 0.0000%
347 Florida A&M -23.80 0.0000%
348 Bethune Cookman -17.09 0.0000%
349 Mississippi Valley St. -21.63 0.0000%
350 Chicago St. -18.55 0.0000%
351 Alcorn St. -22.06 0.0000%
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