Every. Game. Counts. 2014 Selection Sunday final rankings

SMU and Missouri had the best cases they got hosed. Tennessee and BYU should have been very thankful.

Link to the long boring explanation post for how I generate these numbers and what they mean:

https://sethburn.wordpress.com/2015/03/04/every-game-counts-bubble-percentile-texas-cincinnati-march-4th-edition/

Short description: WAB is wins-above-bubble. Take the amount of wins you have, subtract the amount of wins a generic bubble team would average vs. your schedule, viola! Bubble percentile is a bit more complicated. It looks at how likely a bubble team would be to finish with a better or worse record than the one you ended up with against your schedule.

Rank School WAB Bubble Percentile Seed
1 Florida 10.44 100.00% 1
2 Wichita St. 7.55 100.00% 1
3 Arizona 9.05 99.98% 1
4 Villanova 7.64 99.92% 2
5 Syracuse 7.09 99.83% 3
6 Virginia 6.87 99.70% 1
7 Wisconsin 6.50 99.47% 2
8 Iowa St. 6.31 99.34% 3
9 Duke 5.92 99.00% 3
10 Kansas 6.17 98.98% 2
11 San Diego St. 4.74 98.59% 4
12 Cincinnati 5.08 98.45% 5
13 Michigan 5.44 98.39% 2
14 Louisville 5.00 98.33% 4
15 Michigan St. 5.39 98.11% 4
16 Creighton 5.19 97.94% 3
17 Connecticut 4.38 96.45% 7
18 UCLA 4.20 95.20% 4
19 New Mexico 3.67 93.66% 7
20 Ohio St. 3.98 93.36% 6
21 Pittsburgh 3.69 92.55% 9
22 North Carolina 3.54 92.21% 6
23 Saint Louis 3.21 91.89% 5
24 Oklahoma 3.52 91.66% 5
25 Kentucky 3.07 88.40% 8
26 Gonzaga 2.84 87.53% 8
27 Texas 2.83 86.64% 7
28 Oregon 2.70 85.78% 7
29 Massachusetts 2.60 84.80% 6
30 Baylor 2.57 83.53% 6
31 VCU 2.46 82.54% 5
32 Memphis 2.17 82.38% 8
33 George Washington 2.19 81.18% 9
34 Colorado 2.25 81.03% 8
35 Saint Joseph’s 1.66 74.69% 10
36 Providence 1.70 73.73% 11
37 Stephen F. Austin 1.09 73.06% 12
38 Harvard 1.19 71.48% 12
39 Xavier 0.90 63.32% 12
40 Arizona St. 0.66 60.06% 10
41 Oklahoma St. 0.48 56.99% 9
42 Stanford 0.48 56.97% 10
43 Kansas St. 0.34 54.99% 9
44 SMU 0.27 53.88% x
45 Missouri 0.26 53.45% x
46 St. John’s 0.20 52.65% x
47 Green Bay 0.17 51.97% x
48 Dayton 0.13 51.32% 11
49 Southern Miss 0.03 49.26% x
50 North Carolina St. -0.09 48.31% 12
51 Iowa -0.26 45.44% 11
52 Nebraska -0.31 44.64% 11
53 Florida St. -0.39 43.51% x
54 Minnesota -0.48 42.27% x
55 Toledo -0.35 41.84% x
56 Arkansas -0.58 40.03% x
57 Tennessee -0.66 38.82% 11
58 BYU -0.80 36.66% 10
59 Utah -0.77 36.44% x
60 Louisiana Tech -0.90 32.61% x
61 North Dakota St. -0.90 31.43% 12
62 California -1.20 31.26% x
63 Clemson -1.40 27.55% x
64 Manhattan -1.48 23.24% 13
65 Illinois -1.85 23.18% x
66 Georgetown -1.91 22.20% x
67 Saint Mary’s -1.94 20.84% x
68 Maryland -2.31 18.47% x
69 San Francisco -2.40 15.57%
70 North Carolina Central -1.72 14.02% 14
71 LSU -2.70 13.85% x
72 West Virginia -2.88 12.26% x
73 Marquette -3.00 11.25% x
74 UTEP -2.73 10.44% x
75 Middle Tennessee -2.80 9.46% x
76 Georgia -3.32 9.24% x
77 Indiana St. -2.90 8.78% x
78 Indiana -3.38 8.52% x
79 Wake Forest -3.60 7.81% x
80 Richmond -3.51 7.75% x
81 UNLV -3.50 7.10% x
82 Washington -3.94 5.88% x
83 Mississippi -3.88 5.74% x
84 New Mexico St. -3.28 5.59% 13
85 Delaware -3.46 5.53% 13
86 Iona -3.68 5.06% x
87 Belmont -3.43 4.98% x
88 Boston University -3.76 4.68% x
89 Boise St. -4.10 4.22% x
90 Western Michigan -3.69 4.19% 14
91 Missouri St. -3.79 4.14% x
92 Princeton -3.43 4.07% x
93 UC Santa Barbara -3.86 3.16% x
94 Oregon St. -4.58 2.89% x
95 Georgia St. -3.85 2.85% x
96 Mercer -3.77 2.77% 14
97 Tulsa -4.45 2.65% 13
98 Notre Dame -5.05 2.33% x
99 Penn St. -5.19 2.13% x
100 Ohio -4.65 2.09% x
101 Purdue -5.25 1.87% x
102 Miami FL -5.27 1.80% x
103 Texas Tech -5.29 1.78% x
104 Seton Hall -5.35 1.78% x
105 Towson -4.69 1.39% x
106 Texas A&M -5.48 1.27% x
107 St. Bonaventure -5.77 1.05% x
108 Eastern Kentucky -4.67 0.95% 15
109 Cleveland St. -5.25 0.93% x
110 Northwestern -6.17 0.92% x
111 Louisiana Lafayette -5.15 0.89% 14
112 Utah St. -5.69 0.86% x
113 Hawaii -5.24 0.83% x
114 Akron -5.67 0.80% x
115 Vanderbilt -5.90 0.80% x
116 Houston -5.78 0.68% x
117 Georgia Tech -6.09 0.67% x
118 La Salle -6.30 0.64% x
119 Buffalo -5.30 0.59% x
120 Butler -6.19 0.56% x
121 UC Irvine -5.68 0.55% x
122 Quinnipiac -5.61 0.54% x
123 IPFW -5.30 0.53% x
124 Auburn -6.26 0.43% x
125 Western Kentucky -5.82 0.37% x
126 Columbia -5.96 0.31% x
127 Eastern Michigan -6.59 0.28% x
128 Alabama -6.98 0.27% x
129 Vermont -5.56 0.25% x
130 Stony Brook -5.75 0.22% x
131 Canisius -6.44 0.22% x
132 Wyoming -6.74 0.16% x
133 Northern Iowa -6.82 0.15% x
134 Milwaukee -6.93 0.14% 15
135 Davidson -6.08 0.13% x
136 Pacific -7.27 0.12% x
137 UAB -6.64 0.11% x
138 William & Mary -6.74 0.11% x
139 DePaul -7.92 0.11% x
140 Fresno St. -7.46 0.09% x
141 Charlotte -7.24 0.09% x
142 Illinois St. -7.38 0.08% x
143 Sam Houston St. -6.25 0.07% x
144 South Carolina -8.54 0.06% x
145 American -7.25 0.05% 15
146 Utah Valley -6.71 0.04% x
147 Holy Cross -7.51 0.04% x
148 South Dakota St. -7.22 0.04% x
149 San Diego -8.02 0.03% x
150 Colorado St. -8.08 0.03% x
151 Incarnate Word -4.71 0.02% x
152 Nevada -8.67 0.02% x
153 Drexel -7.88 0.02% x
154 Rhode Island -8.69 0.02% x
155 Yale -7.60 0.02% x
156 Pepperdine -8.60 0.02% x
157 Denver -8.34 0.02% x
158 Portland -8.63 0.01% x
159 Robert Morris -8.13 0.01% x
160 Murray St. -7.42 0.01% x
161 Morehead St. -8.14 0.01% x
162 Weber St. -7.56 0.01% 16
163 UCF -8.62 0.01% x
164 Valparaiso -8.93 0.01% x
165 Arkansas St. -8.32 0.01% x
166 Drake -8.93 0.01% x
167 Duquesne -9.08 0.00% x
168 Wright St. -8.87 0.00% x
169 USC -9.78 0.00% x
170 Florida Gulf Coast -8.03 0.00% x
171 George Mason -9.98 0.00% x
172 Bucknell -9.07 0.00% x
173 Coastal Carolina -8.32 0.00% 16
174 Rutgers -10.10 0.00% x
175 Long Beach St. -9.43 0.00% x
176 Wagner -8.32 0.00% x
177 Washington St. -10.40 0.00% x
178 Old Dominion -10.00 0.00% x
179 TCU -10.06 0.00% x
180 Bryant -9.01 0.00% x
181 Brown -8.56 0.00% x
182 Wofford -8.35 0.00% 15
183 Mississippi St. -10.40 0.00% x
184 South Florida -10.25 0.00% x
185 Virginia Tech -10.61 0.00% x
186 Loyola Marymount -10.81 0.00% x
187 Tulane -10.05 0.00% x
188 Siena -10.49 0.00% x
189 Elon -9.09 0.00% x
190 North Texas -10.09 0.00% x
191 Kent St. -10.64 0.00% x
192 Temple -10.95 0.00% x
193 Northwestern St. -9.52 0.00% x
194 Hampton -8.80 0.00% x
195 Nebraska Omaha -9.67 0.00% x
196 Albany -9.73 0.00% 16
197 Winthrop -9.50 0.00% x
198 Santa Clara -11.24 0.00% x
199 Southern -8.96 0.00% x
200 Montana -9.69 0.00% x
201 Oakland -11.99 0.00% x
202 St. Francis NY -10.13 0.00% x
203 Northern Illinois -11.27 0.00% x
204 Rider -11.11 0.00% x
205 Evansville -11.38 0.00% x
206 USC Upstate -10.09 0.00% x
207 Northern Colorado -9.88 0.00% x
208 FIU -10.33 0.00% x
209 Fordham -11.84 0.00% x
210 Air Force -11.21 0.00% x
211 Radford -9.44 0.00% x
212 Oral Roberts -10.60 0.00% x
213 VMI -9.48 0.00% x
214 Arkansas Little Rock -11.29 0.00% x
215 Grand Canyon -10.14 0.00% x
216 Boston College -12.45 0.00% x
217 UT Arlington -11.43 0.00% x
218 East Carolina -10.74 0.00% x
219 Miami OH -11.96 0.00% x
220 Mount St. Mary’s -11.07 0.00% 16
221 Youngstown St. -11.51 0.00% x
222 Southern Illinois -12.00 0.00% x
223 Portland St. -10.68 0.00% x
224 High Point -10.33 0.00% x
225 East Tennessee St. -11.08 0.00% x
226 College of Charleston -11.94 0.00% x
227 Norfolk St. -10.40 0.00% x
228 North Dakota -11.50 0.00% x
229 North Florida -11.16 0.00% x
230 Cal Poly -12.52 0.00% 16
231 Morgan St. -11.46 0.00% x
232 Army -11.76 0.00% x
233 Southeast Missouri St. -10.79 0.00% x
234 Saint Peter’s -12.08 0.00% x
235 Tennessee Tech -11.77 0.00% x
236 Dartmouth -11.15 0.00% x
237 Texas A&M Corpus Chris -11.06 0.00% x
238 Louisiana Monroe -11.68 0.00% x
239 Hartford -11.59 0.00% x
240 Western Carolina -11.47 0.00% x
241 Alabama St. -10.02 0.00% x
242 Bradley -13.28 0.00% x
243 UNC Asheville -11.38 0.00% x
244 Eastern Washington -11.94 0.00% x
245 Lipscomb -11.49 0.00% x
246 Marist -13.21 0.00% x
247 Detroit -13.14 0.00% x
248 Lehigh -13.10 0.00% x
249 Chattanooga -11.11 0.00% x
250 Gardner Webb -11.51 0.00% x
251 Bowling Green -13.78 0.00% x
252 Texas Southern -11.30 0.00% 16
253 Idaho -13.25 0.00% x
254 South Dakota -12.86 0.00% x
255 Cal St. Northridge -13.40 0.00% x
256 Colgate -13.32 0.00% x
257 Northeastern -14.42 0.00% x
258 Northern Arizona -13.03 0.00% x
259 New Orleans -11.39 0.00% x
260 Penn -13.67 0.00% x
261 Seattle -13.13 0.00% x
262 Nicholls St. -12.17 0.00% x
263 Sacramento St. -12.63 0.00% x
264 Cal St. Fullerton -14.48 0.00% x
265 Loyola MD -13.94 0.00% x
266 Chicago St. -13.94 0.00% x
267 South Alabama -14.30 0.00% x
268 James Madison -15.03 0.00% x
269 Montana St. -13.96 0.00% x
270 UMKC -14.52 0.00% x
271 Monmouth -15.62 0.00% x
272 Cal St. Bakersfield -14.93 0.00% x
273 UMass Lowell -13.81 0.00% x
274 Lafayette -15.28 0.00% x
275 UNC Greensboro -14.09 0.00% x
276 Florida Atlantic -15.73 0.00% x
277 Jacksonville -14.09 0.00% x
278 Loyola Chicago -16.05 0.00% x
279 Marshall -16.32 0.00% x
280 Troy -15.65 0.00% x
281 Idaho St. -14.69 0.00% x
282 Hofstra -16.75 0.00% x
283 NJIT -13.22 0.00% x
284 Arkansas Pine Bluff -14.27 0.00% x
285 Savannah St. -14.29 0.00% x
286 Alabama A&M -13.66 0.00% x
287 Eastern Illinois -15.20 0.00% x
288 Austin Peay -14.85 0.00% x
289 Western Illinois -15.55 0.00% x
290 Coppin St. -15.62 0.00% x
291 McNeese St. -15.37 0.00% x
292 Charleston Southern -14.55 0.00% x
293 Central Michigan -16.40 0.00% x
294 UC Riverside -16.31 0.00% x
295 Central Connecticut -15.66 0.00% x
296 San Jose St. -17.20 0.00% x
297 Florida A&M -15.21 0.00% x
298 Southeastern Louisiana -14.97 0.00% x
299 LIU Brooklyn -16.60 0.00% x
300 UNC Wilmington -17.34 0.00% x
301 St. Francis PA -17.20 0.00% x
302 UC Davis -17.29 0.00% x
303 Fairfield -18.43 0.00% x
304 UTSA -16.99 0.00% x
305 SIU Edwardsville -16.29 0.00% x
306 Fairleigh Dickinson -16.84 0.00% x
307 Northern Kentucky -16.84 0.00% x
308 Rice -17.24 0.00% x
309 Georgia Southern -15.96 0.00% x
310 Texas St. -17.80 0.00% x
311 Navy -16.92 0.00% x
312 Jackson St. -16.47 0.00% x
313 Niagara -19.82 0.00% x
314 Illinois Chicago -18.71 0.00% x
315 Samford -16.88 0.00% x
316 Central Arkansas -16.94 0.00% x
317 North Carolina A&T -19.65 0.00% x
318 Alcorn St. -16.26 0.00% x
319 Jacksonville St. -17.59 0.00% x
320 Delaware St. -17.21 0.00% x
321 Southern Utah -23.21 0.00% x
322 IUPUI -20.77 0.00% x
323 UMBC -17.41 0.00% x
324 Kennesaw St. -20.91 0.00% x
325 South Carolina St. -17.44 0.00% x
326 Abilene Christian -16.95 0.00% x
327 Grambling St. -21.73 0.00% x
328 The Citadel -22.57 0.00% x
329 Stetson -20.23 0.00% x
330 Longwood -20.57 0.00% x
331 Texas Pan American -18.80 0.00% x
332 Cornell -20.26 0.00% x
333 Sacred Heart -22.59 0.00% x
334 Ball St. -19.36 0.00% x
335 New Hampshire -20.07 0.00% x
336 Houston Baptist -20.92 0.00% x
337 Howard -21.02 0.00% x
338 Maine -18.63 0.00% x
339 Liberty -17.66 0.00% x
340 Tennessee St. -19.70 0.00% x
341 Maryland Eastern Shore -20.74 0.00% x
342 Mississippi Valley St. -20.32 0.00% x
343 Binghamton -19.01 0.00% x
344 Presbyterian -23.36 0.00% x
345 Campbell -16.94 0.00% x
346 Appalachian St. -17.96 0.00% x
347 Prairie View A&M -19.28 0.00% x
348 Tennessee Martin -19.40 0.00% x
349 Lamar -22.00 0.00% x
350 Bethune Cookman -22.28 0.00% x
351 Furman -18.16 0.00% x
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