Every. Game. Counts. BYU vs. Cincinnati: March 1st Update

Perhaps you’ve looked at Jerry Palm’s most recent bracketology update:

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

Right now he has Cincinnati (RPI 52) as a 10-seed, and BYU (RPI 35) among the first four out. Why? Well, Jerry has done a very good job of explaining the committee process here:

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/eye-on-college-basketball/25079791/bracketology-what-data-is-relevant-and-what-isnt

Here is the key section:

1. RPI is the only metric. You may love KenPom, Sagarin, whatnot. Doesn’t matter. The AP and coaches polls? Not a factor. Until one of those other ratings shows up on these sheets, they aren’t relevant to the process. That said, RPI alone is never decisive. The committee never, ever compares two teams and picks the one with the higher RPI because it has a higher RPI.

So, what does the committee see when the want to compare, say, Cincinnati to BYU? Something a bit like this:

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/teams/rpi/CINCY/cincinnati-bearcats

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/teams/rpi/BYU/brigham-young-cougars

In practical terms the committee isn’t focused on your RPI. What they look at is how you did vs. various RPI groupings (and where the games where played). So, for Cincinnati they see

3-1 vs. the top 25

1-3 vs. 26-50

2-2 vs. 51-100

5-2 vs. 101-200

9-1 vs. 200+

Not bad, right? That 3-1 vs. the top 25 looks fantastic. The 1-3 vs. 26-50 isn’t so hot, but 2-2 vs. 51-100 is fine, 5-2 vs. 101-200 is ok, and given the 9 wins vs. the 200+, we’ll let the 1 loss outside of the top 200 go (it was a road loss at East Carolina). The key to Cincinnati’s resume is the 3-1 vs. the top 25.

Now let’s look at BYU:

1-3 vs. the top 25 (Off to a bad start)

0-0 vs. 26-50 (This is where they may have been able to redeem themselves, but alas)

3-2 vs. 51-100 (Better than 2-2, but nothing special)

9-3 vs. 101-200 (Meh)

8-0 vs. 200+ (Golf clap)

You can see why the committee would have Cincinnati comfortably in (3-1 vs. the top 25!), while BYU would be left just outside.

But I’m curious about something. How many wins should BYU and Cincinnati have against those respective groupings?

Opponent RPI Location Opponent Generic Bubble Expected Win% Result Wins
18 Away SMU 26.77% 62-54 1
18 Home SMU 56.95% 56-50 1
20 Home VCU 60.32% 47-68 0
25 Home San Diego State 64.95% 71-62 1
37 Away Temple 45.94% 59-75 0
37 Home Temple 75.44% 84-53 1
39 Home Xavier 58.43% 57-59 0
50 Neutral Mississippi 48.53% 54-66 0
55 Away North Carolina State 32.68% 76-60 1
76 Away Connecticut 43.70% 56-62 0
76 Home Connecticut 73.76% 70-58 1
92 Away Memphis 51.72% 50-63 0
109 Home Stony Brook 86.92% 78-52 1
113 Home North Carolina Central 84.25% 59-50 1
122 Away Nebraska 59.12% 55-56 0
171 Home Eastern Illinois 92.89% 54-49 1
181 Neutral Middle Tennessee 83.42% 69-51 1
189 Away Tulane 76.00% 63-47 1
189 Home Tulane 91.98% 49-50 0
203 Home St. Francis (Pa.) 93.99% 52-37 1
220 Home Morehead State 90.76% 69-61 1
224 Away East Carolina 76.92% 46-50 0
224 Home East Carolina 92.36% 69-48 1
233 Away UCF 83.11% 56-46 1
233 Home UCF 94.69% 83-60 1
252 Home South Florida 95.34% 63-58 1
269 Away Houston 81.69% 63-53 1
269 Home Houston 94.18% 67-54 1
295 Home Wagner 96.86% 72-48 1
Bubble Expected Wins 21.14 Total Wins 20

A generic bubble team would expect to average 2.09 wins vs. the top 25 given Cincinnati’s schedule. Here’s the overall breakdown:

1-25: Expected Wins- 2.09, Actual Wins- 3

26-50: Expected Wins- 2.28, Actual Wins- 1

51-100: Expected Wins- 2.02, Actual Wins- 2

101-200: Expected Wins- 5.75, Actual Wins- 5 (Both losses were by 1 point, but that’s not important right now 🙂

200+: Expected Wins- 9.00, Actual Wins- 9

While Cincinnati really did do well vs. the RPI top 25, they did quite poorly vs. 26-50 and 101-200. Overall, a generic  bubble team would expect to have a better record than Cincinnati. However, would Cincinnati trade one of their wins vs. SMU for a pair of wins against Mississippi and Tulane? That would net them an extra win, but it would also weaken their key selling point.

As for BYU:

Opponent RPI Location Opponent Bubble Expected Win% Result Wins
8 Away Gonzaga 10.51% 73-70 1
8 Home Gonzaga 29.77% 80-87 0
12 Home Utah 36.87% 61-65 0
25 Neutral San Diego State 49.41% 87-92 0
53 Home Stanford 64.06% 79-77 1
57 Neutral Purdue 50.52% 85-87 0
61 Away Saint Mary’s 38.73% 77-82 0
61 Home Saint Mary’s 69.61% 82-60 1
65 Home Massachusetts 83.39% 77-71 1
108 Home Long Beach State 86.64% 95-90 1
137 Away Utah State 58.05% 91-81 1
146 Away San Diego 56.34% 74-77 0
146 Home San Diego 82.37% 75-62 1
148 Away Pepperdine 56.07% 74-80 0
148 Home Pepperdine 82.19% 61-67 0
150 Home Eastern Kentucky 86.24% 90-76 1
152 Away Portland 63.67% 82-69 1
152 Home Portland 86.38% 97-88 1
163 Home Hawaii 81.49% 90-73 1
194 Away San Francisco 64.57% 99-68 1
194 Home San Francisco 86.83% 78-74 1
206 Away Santa Clara 76.92% 81-46 1
206 Home Santa Clara 92.35% 78-57 1
231 Away Pacific 80.10% 93-80 1
231 Home Pacific 93.58% 84-59 1
244 Away Loyola Marymount 81.46% 87-68 1
244 Home Loyola Marymount 94.09% 85-72 1
261 Away Weber State 85.74% 76-60 1
262 Home Arkansas-Little Rock 93.83% 91-62 1
    Bubble Expected Wins 20.22 Total Wins 21

1-25: Expected Wins- 1.27, Actual Wins- 1

26-50: Expected Wins- 0.00, Actual Wins- 0

51-100: Expected Wins- 3.06, Actual Wins- 3

101-200: Expected Wins- 8.91, Actual Wins- 9

200+: Expected Wins- 6.98, Actual Wins- 8

You might be wondering how hard it is to go 8-0 vs. Santa Clara, Pacific, Loyola Marymount, Weber State, and Arkansas-Little Rock. Well, a generic bubble team would expect to sweep them around 33% of the time. Going 8-0 is harder than it looks. Overall, BYU is close to a full win ahead of what would be expected of our generic bubble team. More importantly, they’re almost two wins ahead of Cincinnati. The truth is, right now Cincinnati doesn’t have a top 50 resume, while BYU should be solidly in. The thing is, you wouldn’t know that by the information that the committee is given to work with.

Also, while the committee can look a BYU’s KenPom ranking (26th overall), they know that isn’t reflective of their resume. The KenPom ratings calculate how good a team is. If you want to know how good a team’s resume is, you have to look at their record vs. the schedule they faced.

Which is what I did. For all 351 teams. For the four most popular (according to Twitter) NCAAB ratings systems.

Here’s the full rundown for Wins-Above-Bubble for the KenPom, Massey, BPI, and Sagarin ratings:

Ranking School KenPom Massey BPI Sagarin Average WAB
1 Kentucky 11.03 11.60 11.21 11.36 11.30
2 Virginia 9.28 10.11 9.94 9.87 9.80
3 Duke 8.70 9.35 9.16 9.21 9.10
4 Villanova 8.63 9.05 8.84 9.13 8.91
5 Kansas 7.91 7.95 7.70 8.49 8.01
6 Wisconsin 7.59 7.93 7.90 8.35 7.94
7 Arizona 7.33 7.16 7.45 7.61 7.39
8 Gonzaga 6.88 7.27 6.83 6.96 6.98
9 Maryland 5.33 5.50 5.65 6.08 5.64
10 Louisville 4.79 5.47 5.41 5.58 5.31
11 Baylor 4.98 5.15 4.91 5.51 5.13
12 Notre Dame 4.27 5.05 4.76 4.80 4.72
13 Northern Iowa 4.66 4.65 4.75 4.65 4.68
14 Wichita St. 4.58 4.53 4.78 4.56 4.61
15 West Virginia 4.16 4.31 3.97 4.50 4.23
16 Oklahoma 4.02 4.22 3.96 4.55 4.19
17 Utah 4.15 3.95 4.24 4.16 4.12
18 North Carolina 3.62 4.24 4.10 4.29 4.06
19 Iowa St. 3.78 3.97 3.74 4.23 3.93
20 Arkansas 3.29 3.86 3.36 3.45 3.49
21 Butler 3.08 3.60 3.36 3.57 3.40
22 SMU 2.52 2.50 2.56 2.48 2.51
23 Providence 2.03 2.60 2.45 2.44 2.38
24 Georgetown 1.86 2.30 2.21 2.30 2.17
25 VCU 1.85 1.73 2.26 1.54 1.85
26 Texas A&M 1.56 1.92 1.83 1.70 1.75
27 Georgia 1.37 1.91 1.72 1.62 1.65
28 Davidson 1.51 1.48 1.89 1.56 1.61
29 LSU 1.33 1.82 1.68 1.54 1.59
30 St. John’s 1.20 1.70 1.57 1.73 1.55
31 Dayton 1.33 1.50 1.79 1.27 1.47
32 Iowa 1.04 1.33 1.50 1.98 1.46
33 Ohio St. 0.98 1.39 1.44 1.78 1.40
34 Colorado St. 1.07 0.67 0.90 1.22 0.96
35 San Diego St. 0.98 0.68 0.86 1.12 0.91
36 Stephen F. Austin 1.00 0.79 0.86 0.82 0.87
37 Michigan St. 0.31 0.85 0.88 1.19 0.81
38 BYU 0.68 0.90 0.55 1.00 0.78
39 Murray St. 0.79 0.65 0.79 0.73 0.74
40 Boise St. 0.70 0.50 0.65 0.95 0.70
41 Purdue 0.18 0.63 0.65 1.04 0.62
42 Oregon 0.53 0.44 0.68 0.69 0.59
43 Oklahoma St. 0.43 0.56 0.32 0.95 0.57
44 Indiana 0.11 0.46 0.69 0.94 0.55
45 Texas 0.25 0.39 0.15 0.65 0.36
46 Wofford 0.25 0.27 0.59 0.37 0.37
47 Valparaiso 0.32 0.26 0.24 0.10 0.23
48 Saint Mary’s -0.13 0.28 -0.15 0.08 0.02
49 Mississippi -0.16 0.27 -0.07 -0.18 -0.03
50 Stanford -0.19 -0.21 -0.06 -0.09 -0.13
51 Tulsa -0.18 -0.24 -0.32 -0.33 -0.27
52 Old Dominion -0.21 -0.52 -0.25 -0.32 -0.32
53 Iona -0.33 -0.23 -0.38 -0.44 -0.34
54 Pittsburgh -0.88 -0.15 -0.38 -0.27 -0.42
55 UCLA -0.47 -0.61 -0.38 -0.26 -0.43
56 Illinois -0.92 -0.46 -0.53 -0.15 -0.51
57 Rhode Island -0.68 -0.49 -0.18 -0.69 -0.51
58 Miami FL -1.00 -0.34 -0.48 -0.42 -0.56
59 UC Davis -0.62 -0.65 -0.46 -0.56 -0.57
60 Xavier -0.82 -0.40 -0.66 -0.54 -0.61
61 Green Bay -0.52 -0.62 -0.59 -0.64 -0.59
62 Temple -0.54 -0.57 -0.57 -0.80 -0.62
63 Syracuse -1.06 -0.32 -0.67 -0.62 -0.67
64 North Carolina St. -1.11 -0.42 -0.60 -0.58 -0.68
65 Louisiana Tech -0.69 -0.94 -0.75 -0.63 -0.75
66 Harvard -0.70 -0.69 -0.81 -0.82 -0.76
67 Cincinnati -1.11 -1.22 -1.20 -1.16 -1.17
68 North Carolina Central -1.43 -1.40 -1.13 -1.49 -1.36
69 Alabama -1.64 -1.29 -1.52 -1.53 -1.49
70 Minnesota -1.94 -1.55 -1.38 -1.15 -1.51
71 Buffalo -1.54 -1.64 -1.44 -1.52 -1.54
72 Central Michigan -1.56 -1.69 -1.61 -1.58 -1.61
73 Seton Hall -1.85 -1.50 -1.64 -1.61 -1.65
74 Yale -1.55 -1.64 -1.79 -1.89 -1.72
75 TCU -2.04 -1.79 -2.13 -1.54 -1.87
76 Kansas St. -2.18 -1.96 -2.24 -1.68 -2.02
77 George Washington -2.26 -2.30 -1.77 -2.23 -2.14
78 Clemson -2.71 -1.95 -2.18 -2.20 -2.26
79 Sam Houston St. -2.35 -2.41 -2.44 -2.62 -2.45
80 Vanderbilt -2.77 -2.19 -2.58 -2.51 -2.51
81 Oregon St. -2.61 -2.70 -2.60 -2.47 -2.59
82 Wyoming -2.56 -2.90 -2.71 -2.51 -2.67
83 High Point -2.68 -2.80 -2.46 -2.91 -2.71
84 UTEP -2.72 -3.06 -2.74 -2.73 -2.81
85 Bowling Green -2.75 -2.91 -2.73 -2.91 -2.82
86 Connecticut -2.83 -2.91 -2.91 -2.90 -2.89
87 Michigan -3.25 -3.02 -2.87 -2.52 -2.91
88 Toledo -2.89 -3.12 -2.94 -2.99 -2.99
89 Albany -2.92 -3.10 -3.19 -3.10 -3.08
90 Richmond -3.33 -3.18 -2.79 -3.32 -3.16
91 Massachusetts -3.37 -3.14 -2.94 -3.48 -3.23
92 Arizona St. -3.28 -3.32 -3.15 -3.17 -3.23
93 Illinois St. -3.24 -3.31 -2.96 -3.45 -3.24
94 Eastern Washington -3.27 -3.29 -3.14 -3.24 -3.23
95 Florida -3.70 -3.10 -3.24 -3.62 -3.41
96 South Carolina -3.79 -3.31 -3.41 -3.63 -3.54
97 Georgia St. -3.54 -3.56 -3.50 -3.62 -3.55
98 South Dakota St. -3.46 -3.67 -3.55 -3.66 -3.59
99 Tennessee -3.95 -3.38 -3.73 -3.69 -3.69
100 Chattanooga -3.83 -3.93 -3.48 -3.85 -3.77
101 California -3.81 -4.01 -3.81 -3.67 -3.82
102 Pepperdine -3.97 -3.69 -3.98 -3.72 -3.84
103 Florida Gulf Coast -3.92 -3.96 -3.81 -3.86 -3.89
104 Georgia Southern -4.06 -4.02 -4.05 -4.02 -4.04
105 Stony Brook -4.10 -4.16 -4.14 -3.97 -4.09
106 Evansville -4.04 -4.16 -3.98 -4.34 -4.13
107 Kent St. -4.11 -4.31 -4.11 -4.25 -4.19
108 Utah St. -4.16 -4.33 -4.48 -4.06 -4.26
109 Rider -4.36 -4.22 -4.44 -4.34 -4.34
110 North Dakota St. -4.24 -4.43 -4.40 -4.30 -4.34
111 UNLV -4.16 -4.66 -4.61 -4.24 -4.42
112 Loyola Chicago -4.36 -4.48 -4.25 -4.63 -4.43
113 Northeastern -4.60 -4.41 -4.57 -4.44 -4.50
114 Washington -4.48 -4.76 -4.51 -4.33 -4.52
115 New Mexico St. -4.63 -4.69 -4.27 -4.41 -4.50
116 Eastern Kentucky -4.65 -4.63 -4.57 -4.63 -4.62
117 Northwestern -5.05 -4.82 -4.54 -4.35 -4.69
118 Texas Southern -4.90 -4.77 -4.31 -4.72 -4.67
119 UC Irvine -4.63 -4.68 -4.70 -4.77 -4.69
120 Coastal Carolina -4.63 -4.67 -4.43 -4.99 -4.68
121 Western Kentucky -4.74 -4.87 -4.59 -4.67 -4.72
122 Western Michigan -4.63 -4.83 -4.82 -4.63 -4.73
123 Memphis -4.54 -4.69 -4.83 -4.86 -4.73
124 Penn St. -5.13 -4.84 -4.68 -4.40 -4.76
125 Charleston Southern -4.81 -4.83 -4.49 -5.00 -4.78
126 William & Mary -4.83 -4.86 -4.81 -4.75 -4.81
127 Sacramento St. -4.91 -4.88 -4.72 -4.80 -4.82
128 Nebraska -5.22 -4.92 -4.86 -4.55 -4.89
129 Belmont -4.86 -4.96 -4.77 -4.89 -4.87
130 Florida St. -5.34 -4.45 -5.08 -4.70 -4.89
131 Radford -4.78 -4.92 -4.74 -5.17 -4.90
132 Incarnate Word -4.81 -4.92 -4.92 -4.96 -4.90
133 North Florida -5.07 -4.96 -4.86 -4.89 -4.95
134 St. Bonaventure -5.14 -5.20 -4.88 -5.30 -5.13
135 Marquette -5.60 -5.23 -5.33 -5.19 -5.34
136 Akron -6.25 -6.37 -6.32 -6.29 -6.31
137 Creighton -5.62 -5.30 -5.44 -5.24 -5.40
138 Wake Forest -5.94 -5.20 -5.32 -5.34 -5.45
139 UC Santa Barbara -5.45 -5.53 -5.46 -5.59 -5.51
140 San Diego -5.65 -5.32 -5.66 -5.42 -5.51
141 La Salle -5.70 -5.69 -5.34 -5.91 -5.66
142 UNC Wilmington -5.79 -5.72 -5.63 -5.46 -5.65
143 Hawaii -5.64 -5.64 -5.68 -5.72 -5.67
144 Long Beach St. -5.69 -5.63 -5.84 -5.61 -5.69
145 Cleveland St. -5.65 -5.74 -5.61 -5.87 -5.72
146 Northwestern St. -5.64 -5.71 -5.74 -5.76 -5.71
147 Tennessee Martin -5.74 -5.76 -5.63 -5.79 -5.73
148 Georgia Tech -6.35 -5.52 -5.65 -5.76 -5.82
149 St. Francis NY -5.74 -5.75 -5.86 -5.85 -5.80
150 Louisiana Monroe -5.76 -5.86 -5.78 -5.87 -5.82
151 Alabama St. -5.96 -5.92 -5.37 -5.96 -5.80
152 Texas Tech -5.97 -5.79 -6.17 -5.53 -5.87
153 Portland -6.09 -5.71 -5.98 -6.00 -5.94
154 Norfolk St. -5.88 -5.93 -6.03 -6.07 -5.98
155 Colorado -6.11 -6.26 -6.01 -5.98 -6.09
156 USC Upstate -6.10 -6.02 -6.17 -6.06 -6.09
157 Oakland -6.12 -6.17 -6.20 -6.27 -6.19
158 Eastern Michigan -6.28 -6.39 -6.23 -6.29 -6.30
159 NJIT -6.32 -6.25 -6.36 -6.45 -6.35
160 Montana -6.50 -6.53 -6.36 -6.41 -6.45
161 UAB -6.48 -6.67 -6.38 -6.44 -6.49
162 Washington St. -6.59 -6.79 -6.49 -6.36 -6.56
163 Gardner Webb -6.79 -6.87 -6.55 -7.17 -6.84
164 Lafayette -6.83 -6.79 -6.95 -6.94 -6.87
165 James Madison -6.96 -7.04 -6.99 -6.77 -6.94
166 UT Arlington -6.96 -7.03 -7.03 -6.97 -7.00
167 New Hampshire -6.92 -6.98 -7.10 -7.05 -7.01
168 DePaul -7.28 -6.97 -7.07 -6.93 -7.06
169 Auburn -7.37 -6.96 -7.07 -7.35 -7.19
170 Bucknell -7.21 -7.08 -7.21 -7.18 -7.17
171 Hofstra -7.27 -7.13 -7.25 -7.12 -7.19
172 Oral Roberts -7.19 -7.45 -7.32 -7.19 -7.29
173 Eastern Illinois -7.09 -7.27 -7.36 -7.48 -7.30
174 Maryland Eastern Shore -7.20 -7.28 -7.20 -7.51 -7.30
175 Indiana St. -7.54 -7.61 -7.26 -7.53 -7.48
176 New Mexico -7.41 -7.81 -7.57 -7.45 -7.56
177 Boston College -8.10 -7.29 -7.52 -7.47 -7.60
178 Tulane -7.54 -7.63 -7.63 -7.71 -7.63
179 Vermont -7.60 -7.68 -7.63 -7.71 -7.65
180 East Tennessee St. -7.69 -7.79 -7.43 -7.85 -7.69
181 Canisius -7.71 -7.68 -7.90 -7.86 -7.79
182 Louisiana Lafayette -7.73 -7.74 -7.83 -7.86 -7.79
183 Texas A&M Corpus Chris -7.80 -7.89 -7.70 -7.86 -7.81
184 Cal Poly -7.87 -7.80 -7.83 -7.95 -7.86
185 Winthrop -7.95 -7.93 -7.67 -8.20 -7.94
186 Lehigh -7.93 -7.91 -8.00 -7.98 -7.96
187 Mississippi St. -8.38 -7.82 -7.61 -8.14 -7.99
188 Manhattan -8.06 -7.89 -8.06 -8.04 -8.01
189 Columbia -7.82 -7.95 -8.13 -8.23 -8.03
190 Santa Clara -8.27 -7.82 -8.18 -8.04 -8.08
191 Northern Arizona -8.09 -8.10 -8.09 -8.15 -8.10
192 Mercer -8.28 -8.18 -7.75 -8.22 -8.11
193 IPFW -8.00 -8.19 -8.15 -8.12 -8.11
194 Mount St. Mary’s -8.08 -8.11 -8.19 -8.19 -8.14
195 Monmouth -8.14 -8.06 -8.28 -8.23 -8.18
196 Middle Tennessee -8.29 -8.45 -8.30 -8.35 -8.35
197 Robert Morris -8.32 -8.32 -8.46 -8.48 -8.40
198 Rutgers -9.02 -8.63 -8.49 -8.18 -8.58
199 Charlotte -8.67 -8.74 -8.47 -8.47 -8.59
200 Lamar -8.50 -8.57 -8.65 -8.66 -8.59
201 UC Riverside -8.54 -8.66 -8.70 -8.64 -8.64
202 Virginia Tech -9.11 -8.40 -8.54 -8.63 -8.67
203 Saint Joseph’s -8.76 -8.70 -8.37 -8.92 -8.69
204 Northern Illinois -8.73 -8.82 -8.63 -8.65 -8.71
205 San Francisco -9.01 -8.60 -8.82 -8.78 -8.80
206 Fresno St. -8.79 -8.99 -8.86 -8.61 -8.81
207 Milwaukee -8.78 -8.85 -8.77 -8.87 -8.82
208 Portland St. -8.95 -8.91 -8.89 -8.87 -8.91
209 North Texas -9.02 -9.17 -8.82 -8.87 -8.97
210 Bryant -8.77 -8.99 -9.12 -9.13 -9.00
211 Quinnipiac -9.00 -8.97 -9.18 -9.10 -9.06
212 USC -9.07 -9.25 -9.09 -8.93 -9.09
213 St. Francis PA -8.97 -9.12 -9.33 -9.25 -9.17
214 Detroit -9.03 -9.24 -9.14 -9.41 -9.21
215 American -9.18 -9.19 -9.32 -9.25 -9.24
216 Air Force -9.32 -9.63 -9.48 -9.23 -9.42
217 UTSA -9.49 -9.68 -9.41 -9.42 -9.50
218 Princeton -9.51 -9.46 -9.53 -9.64 -9.53
219 Dartmouth -9.47 -9.50 -9.56 -9.70 -9.56
220 East Carolina -9.43 -9.62 -9.58 -9.65 -9.57
221 Missouri -9.80 -9.37 -9.76 -9.54 -9.62
222 Army -9.55 -9.54 -9.71 -9.67 -9.62
223 Grand Canyon -9.70 -9.81 -9.50 -9.59 -9.65
224 South Dakota -9.59 -9.83 -9.72 -9.71 -9.71
225 Pacific -9.95 -9.59 -9.78 -9.64 -9.74
226 UCF -9.69 -9.75 -9.73 -9.87 -9.76
227 Northern Colorado -9.81 -9.92 -9.72 -9.80 -9.81
228 Cornell -9.79 -9.78 -9.95 -10.01 -9.88
229 Colgate -9.93 -9.90 -9.93 -9.80 -9.89
230 Hartford -9.75 -9.88 -9.96 -10.00 -9.90
231 Morehead St. -9.77 -10.07 -9.85 -9.98 -9.92
232 Holy Cross -9.99 -9.96 -10.12 -10.07 -10.04
233 Texas St. -10.03 -10.11 -10.21 -10.14 -10.12
234 Seattle -10.27 -10.28 -10.01 -10.08 -10.16
235 Western Carolina -10.20 -10.20 -10.13 -10.28 -10.20
236 McNeese St. -10.22 -10.29 -10.67 -10.32 -10.37
237 Delaware St. -10.23 -10.32 -10.35 -10.65 -10.39
238 UNC Asheville -10.31 -10.46 -10.15 -10.66 -10.40
239 Howard -10.39 -10.36 -10.42 -10.53 -10.42
240 Northern Kentucky -10.63 -10.55 -10.36 -10.43 -10.49
241 Idaho -10.39 -10.59 -10.57 -10.54 -10.52
242 Boston University -10.46 -10.52 -10.52 -10.67 -10.54
243 Southern -10.80 -10.77 -10.24 -10.71 -10.63
244 SIU Edwardsville -10.64 -10.69 -10.57 -10.64 -10.63
245 Fordham -10.81 -10.73 -10.39 -10.92 -10.71
246 Southeast Missouri St. -10.82 -10.74 -10.69 -10.84 -10.77
247 Miami OH -10.79 -10.94 -10.68 -10.81 -10.80
248 Weber St. -10.84 -10.87 -10.94 -10.98 -10.91
249 Lipscomb -10.99 -10.99 -10.82 -10.95 -10.94
250 Duquesne -11.15 -11.06 -10.69 -11.15 -11.01
251 George Mason -11.14 -11.17 -10.70 -11.13 -11.03
252 Prairie View A&M -11.18 -11.26 -10.71 -11.15 -11.08
253 Saint Louis -11.21 -11.30 -11.05 -11.35 -11.23
254 Brown -11.20 -11.19 -11.42 -11.40 -11.30
255 UMass Lowell -11.17 -11.37 -11.36 -11.32 -11.31
256 Elon -11.49 -11.32 -11.45 -11.15 -11.35
257 New Orleans -11.31 -11.41 -11.43 -11.38 -11.38
258 Houston Baptist -11.31 -11.36 -11.49 -11.39 -11.39
259 Missouri St. -11.37 -11.51 -11.17 -11.61 -11.41
260 FIU -11.47 -11.64 -11.30 -11.35 -11.44
261 Denver -11.39 -11.68 -11.48 -11.61 -11.54
262 Sacred Heart -11.52 -11.54 -11.66 -11.62 -11.59
263 Hampton -11.54 -11.64 -11.68 -11.63 -11.62
264 Arkansas Little Rock -11.63 -11.62 -11.64 -11.71 -11.65
265 Arkansas St. -11.81 -11.76 -12.12 -11.83 -11.88
266 Loyola Marymount -12.07 -11.77 -12.07 -11.91 -11.96
267 Houston -12.00 -12.16 -12.07 -12.30 -12.13
268 UMKC -12.28 -12.29 -12.06 -12.14 -12.20
269 Drexel -12.41 -12.26 -12.27 -12.01 -12.24
270 Saint Peter’s -12.39 -12.24 -12.38 -12.32 -12.33
271 Drake -12.34 -12.39 -12.18 -12.53 -12.36
272 Wright St. -12.24 -12.44 -12.25 -12.51 -12.36
273 LIU Brooklyn -12.20 -12.37 -12.60 -12.50 -12.42
274 Appalachian St. -12.58 -12.50 -12.51 -12.53 -12.53
275 Loyola MD -12.55 -12.52 -12.61 -12.48 -12.54
276 VMI -12.93 -12.84 -12.49 -12.87 -12.78
277 Samford -12.93 -12.86 -12.55 -12.89 -12.81
278 Tennessee Tech -12.84 -12.84 -12.75 -12.92 -12.84
279 Southern Illinois -12.82 -12.90 -12.59 -13.13 -12.86
280 Navy -12.89 -12.79 -12.93 -12.84 -12.86
281 Nebraska Omaha -12.97 -13.03 -12.81 -12.84 -12.91
282 Delaware -13.00 -12.94 -12.98 -12.77 -12.92
283 Ohio -13.17 -13.26 -12.99 -13.07 -13.12
284 Marshall -13.15 -13.34 -13.03 -13.04 -13.14
285 Cal St. Bakersfield -13.14 -13.27 -12.99 -13.12 -13.13
286 Towson -13.21 -13.13 -13.23 -13.05 -13.15
287 South Florida -13.07 -13.14 -13.19 -13.28 -13.17
288 Southern Miss -13.14 -13.49 -13.28 -13.30 -13.30
289 IUPUI -13.16 -13.44 -13.37 -13.38 -13.34
290 The Citadel -13.57 -13.49 -13.15 -13.53 -13.44
291 Utah Valley -13.54 -13.58 -13.35 -13.61 -13.52
292 Siena -13.49 -13.41 -13.58 -13.68 -13.54
293 Youngstown St. -13.38 -13.59 -13.52 -13.69 -13.54
294 Penn -13.37 -13.41 -13.59 -13.85 -13.56
295 Ball St. -13.49 -13.77 -13.68 -13.62 -13.64
296 Rice -13.81 -14.08 -13.72 -13.66 -13.82
297 Nevada -13.89 -14.09 -13.91 -13.70 -13.90
298 Troy -13.94 -13.89 -13.87 -14.04 -13.93
299 Alabama A&M -14.16 -14.09 -13.48 -14.21 -13.99
300 Savannah St. -13.99 -13.99 -14.02 -14.20 -14.05
301 Wagner -13.93 -14.02 -14.21 -14.05 -14.05
302 Nicholls St. -14.18 -14.23 -14.24 -14.24 -14.22
303 Jacksonville St. -14.48 -14.38 -14.52 -14.27 -14.41
304 Western Illinois -14.36 -14.63 -14.45 -14.39 -14.46
305 Southern Utah -14.48 -14.48 -14.50 -14.55 -14.50
306 Florida Atlantic -14.41 -14.68 -14.45 -14.65 -14.54
307 Jackson St. -14.72 -14.68 -14.17 -14.68 -14.56
308 Southeastern Louisiana -14.61 -14.70 -14.61 -14.58 -14.62
309 Cal St. Northridge -14.71 -14.76 -14.84 -14.90 -14.80
310 Bradley -15.05 -15.13 -14.85 -15.25 -15.07
311 Coppin St. -15.07 -15.13 -15.04 -15.12 -15.09
312 Niagara -15.18 -15.06 -15.30 -15.28 -15.20
313 Cal St. Fullerton -15.21 -15.19 -15.21 -15.31 -15.23
314 North Dakota -15.29 -15.43 -15.32 -15.30 -15.33
315 Texas Pan American -15.37 -15.48 -15.20 -15.31 -15.34
316 Arkansas Pine Bluff -15.53 -15.62 -14.91 -15.49 -15.39
317 South Alabama -15.39 -15.34 -15.47 -15.47 -15.42
318 South Carolina St. -15.37 -15.51 -15.37 -15.50 -15.44
319 Furman -15.51 -15.52 -15.21 -15.52 -15.44
320 Kennesaw St. -15.69 -15.71 -15.48 -15.53 -15.60
321 Presbyterian -15.51 -15.68 -15.37 -15.91 -15.62
322 Illinois Chicago -15.80 -15.87 -15.81 -16.01 -15.87
323 Campbell -15.81 -15.99 -15.65 -16.21 -15.92
324 Fairleigh Dickinson -15.94 -15.89 -16.17 -16.10 -16.02
325 Austin Peay -16.08 -16.11 -16.08 -16.25 -16.13
326 UNC Greensboro -16.36 -16.34 -15.94 -16.30 -16.23
327 Chicago St. -16.38 -16.48 -16.17 -16.37 -16.35
328 Jacksonville -16.48 -16.38 -16.52 -16.27 -16.41
329 Stetson -16.54 -16.54 -16.28 -16.46 -16.45
330 College of Charleston -16.64 -16.43 -16.43 -16.43 -16.48
331 Abilene Christian -16.34 -16.52 -16.51 -16.54 -16.48
332 Bethune Cookman -16.46 -16.58 -16.51 -16.57 -16.53
333 Longwood -16.75 -16.92 -16.66 -17.02 -16.84
334 Fairfield -16.79 -16.75 -16.94 -16.94 -16.85
335 North Carolina A&T -17.11 -17.27 -16.81 -17.11 -17.07
336 Morgan St. -17.04 -17.06 -17.10 -17.31 -17.13
337 Montana St. -17.38 -17.37 -17.22 -17.28 -17.31
338 Marist -18.65 -18.55 -18.71 -18.70 -18.65
339 Liberty -18.90 -19.07 -18.84 -19.36 -19.04
340 Idaho St. -19.16 -19.24 -19.11 -19.07 -19.14
341 Mississippi Valley St. -19.16 -19.10 -19.37 -18.98 -19.16
342 Binghamton -19.19 -19.21 -19.35 -19.30 -19.26
343 Tennessee St. -19.47 -19.59 -19.54 -19.55 -19.54
344 UMBC -19.62 -19.76 -19.83 -19.71 -19.73
345 Maine -19.62 -19.87 -19.89 -19.75 -19.78
346 Alcorn St. -20.39 -20.43 -19.89 -20.33 -20.26
347 Grambling St. -20.79 -20.76 -20.10 -20.50 -20.54
348 San Jose St. -20.91 -21.15 -21.00 -20.86 -20.98
349 Central Connecticut -21.11 -21.17 -21.38 -21.33 -21.25
350 Central Arkansas -22.06 -22.20 -22.21 -22.21 -22.17
351 Florida A&M -23.48 -23.59 -23.49 -23.61 -23.54
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1 comment
  1. Sanpete said:

    Very interesting analysis, with somewhat unexpected results.

    I think you may have a typo in the part about BYU’s expected wins:

    51-100: Expected Wins- 3.06, Actual Wins- 0

    That’s 3 actual wins, right?

    Thanks for working all this out! I’ll no doubt check back on it for reference. Looks like you have some other interesting stuff here too.

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