Every. Game. Counts. 2/25 Edition

We see the return of WAB. I’ve also calculated the Massey resume ratings, but I’m still working on a good way to properly display all the information (KenPom, Sagarin, BPI, Massey).

A brief refresher: To generate this data I put a generic bubble team and a generic monster (#1 seed quality) through each team’s schedule. For example, a Bubble Team would expect win win 63.97% of their games vs. UK’s schedule. A Monster team would expect to win 92.38% of its games vs. UK’s schedule.

Wins above Bubble is where the team’s currently stand, but don’t despair if your team is below the Mendoza-line! An additional While there are only 46 teams currently with a positive WAB, another 21 could still join them by winning out, and that doesn’t count the conference tournaments.

Finally, for now we have 3 clear #1 seeds. Kentucky, Virginia, and Gonzaga have all performed above a very high baseline. So has Villanova, but they will have to win out to stay above it. Speaking of Duke, if they win out they’ll end up solidly in the black as well.

Rank Team Win% > Bubble Win% > Monster Wins > Bubble
1 Kentucky 36.03% 7.62% 10.87
2 Virginia 32.42% 4.53% 9.18
3 Duke 28.09% -0.39% 8.50
4 Villanova 27.94% 0.29% 8.26
5 Kansas 26.25% -8.00% 7.75
6 Gonzaga 24.74% 3.05% 7.59
7 Wisconsin 26.06% -2.88% 7.52
8 Arizona 22.90% -3.58% 6.66
9 Maryland 17.35% -9.29% 5.20
10 Iowa St. 18.75% -12.29% 5.15
11 Northern Iowa 18.13% -1.86% 4.84
12 Utah 15.81% -10.20% 4.75
13 Louisville 16.46% -11.69% 4.46
14 West Virginia 17.70% -11.33% 4.35
15 Notre Dame 15.13% -9.29% 4.26
16 Wichita St. 14.57% -5.12% 4.08
17 Baylor 14.48% -15.69% 3.92
18 Oklahoma 13.54% -18.35% 3.80
19 Arkansas 14.80% -9.28% 3.47
20 North Carolina 11.16% -20.51% 3.11
21 VCU 11.28% -15.01% 3.06
22 Butler 9.12% -20.00% 2.67
23 Georgetown 9.34% -20.68% 2.29
24 SMU 8.71% -12.43% 2.19
25 Providence 7.02% -21.15% 2.04
26 San Diego St. 5.57% -15.71% 1.68
27 Texas A&M 5.25% -21.35% 1.40
28 Colorado St. 4.46% -13.85% 1.13
29 Oklahoma St. 4.22% -26.24% 1.12
30 Michigan St. 5.42% -21.03% 1.07
31 Stephen F. Austin 2.75% -11.00% 0.91
32 LSU 4.32% -21.16% 0.91
33 Mississippi 4.65% -21.11% 0.80
34 Ohio St. 2.38% -22.44% 0.73
35 St. John’s 4.70% -22.83% 0.70
36 Davidson 3.62% -17.47% 0.65
37 Valparaiso 3.68% -11.08% 0.63
38 Indiana 3.13% -23.44% 0.61
39 Georgia 3.51% -24.04% 0.55
40 Texas 2.36% -26.89% 0.48
41 Dayton 3.74% -17.95% 0.45
42 Murray St. 1.72% -11.61% 0.41
43 Iowa 0.57% -27.65% 0.28
44 Saint Mary’s 1.10% -19.73% 0.27
45 Oregon 3.57% -20.93% 0.15
46 Boise St. 0.24% -19.20% -0.02
47 Purdue 1.59% -24.94% -0.06
48 Wofford -0.23% -15.88% -0.11
49 Stanford 0.81% -24.92% -0.34
50 North Carolina St. -1.90% -30.05% -0.36
51 Harvard -0.31% -16.16% -0.36
52 Xavier -0.43% -29.14% -0.38
53 BYU 0.60% -21.32% -0.44
54 Iona -1.48% -17.52% -0.55
55 UCLA -5.01% -31.74% -0.59
56 Rhode Island 0.51% -19.36% -0.59
57 Old Dominion -2.90% -19.88% -0.72
58 Temple -3.02% -25.22% -0.72
59 Green Bay -3.10% -20.33% -0.76
60 Central Michigan -0.66% -16.14% -0.78
61 UC Davis 0.43% -13.60% -0.79
62 Tulsa 0.09% -21.24% -0.92
63 Miami FL -2.44% -29.01% -0.94
64 Illinois -1.78% -27.76% -0.95
65 Pittsburgh -1.43% -26.08% -0.96
66 Syracuse 0.73% -25.99% -1.08
67 Louisiana Tech -4.41% -21.20% -1.11
68 Alabama -2.17% -28.54% -1.27
69 Cincinnati -4.82% -27.74% -1.29
70 Wyoming -1.33% -18.16% -1.29
71 North Carolina Central -6.67% -18.87% -1.53
72 UTEP -5.39% -22.98% -1.54
73 Sam Houston St. -3.63% -15.64% -1.56
74 Buffalo -6.85% -26.35% -1.88
75 Yale -6.19% -25.31% -1.97
76 TCU -4.22% -30.62% -2.02
77 Toledo -7.40% -27.83% -2.15
78 Seton Hall -6.30% -34.39% -2.25
79 Oregon St. -5.38% -29.37% -2.31
80 High Point -6.92% -21.59% -2.44
81 Florida Gulf Coast -8.06% -21.92% -2.46
82 George Washington -7.18% -29.94% -2.53
83 Eastern Washington -8.46% -22.65% -2.59
84 Massachusetts -9.27% -34.31% -2.71
85 South Dakota St. -8.97% -23.10% -2.82
86 Kansas St. -7.75% -39.63% -2.83
87 Minnesota -7.71% -34.08% -2.84
88 Georgia St. -10.05% -25.85% -2.95
89 Tennessee -8.37% -37.13% -3.07
90 Clemson -8.62% -34.94% -3.08
91 Michigan -10.33% -38.04% -3.17
92 Bowling Green -9.17% -27.00% -3.21
93 Arizona St. -9.56% -35.48% -3.27
94 Connecticut -10.48% -35.47% -3.28
95 California -7.22% -31.98% -3.32
96 Evansville -8.95% -27.07% -3.46
97 Albany -12.45% -26.78% -3.52
98 Kent St. -9.53% -27.75% -3.56
99 Memphis -8.42% -30.24% -3.59
100 Vanderbilt -12.09% -36.22% -3.67
101 Coastal Carolina -12.91% -24.98% -3.73
102 Washington -9.87% -34.70% -3.81
103 Illinois St. -13.44% -33.74% -3.84
104 North Dakota St. -12.15% -25.38% -3.85
105 Florida -12.33% -42.14% -3.91
106 Northeastern -13.40% -30.92% -3.92
107 Georgia Southern -9.98% -21.81% -3.94
108 South Carolina -14.14% -41.50% -4.08
109 Pepperdine -15.10% -36.08% -4.11
110 Incarnate Word -12.88% -26.25% -4.23
111 Radford -14.29% -27.85% -4.24
112 William & Mary -16.16% -32.98% -4.30
113 Richmond -14.68% -38.07% -4.32
114 Chattanooga -14.55% -27.24% -4.39
115 Stony Brook -15.41% -30.97% -4.48
116 UNLV -15.93% -39.52% -4.50
117 New Mexico St. -16.52% -30.37% -4.58
118 Charleston Southern -14.83% -29.75% -4.62
119 La Salle -14.74% -38.14% -4.65
120 Utah St. -14.03% -32.79% -4.72
121 Florida St. -13.74% -38.51% -4.78
122 Rider -15.87% -30.92% -4.85
123 Penn St. -13.60% -38.42% -4.93
124 Belmont -18.06% -32.28% -4.95
125 UC Irvine -15.07% -33.24% -4.95
126 Western Michigan -15.41% -35.22% -4.97
127 Eastern Kentucky -18.86% -31.95% -4.98
128 Loyola Chicago -17.26% -36.83% -5.01
129 Western Kentucky -16.58% -34.44% -5.14
130 Cleveland St. -16.81% -35.31% -5.14
131 St. Bonaventure -18.96% -39.34% -5.23
132 Portland -16.75% -36.93% -5.27
133 Nebraska -14.92% -42.85% -5.27
134 Creighton -15.52% -44.18% -5.35
135 Alabama St. -19.13% -27.37% -5.39
136 Texas Southern -19.69% -37.62% -5.40
137 Marquette -17.11% -47.07% -5.41
138 St. Francis NY -17.27% -28.63% -5.42
139 Louisiana Monroe -17.04% -30.71% -5.44
140 Sacramento St. -16.44% -27.57% -5.44
141 Northwestern -15.87% -42.92% -5.48
142 Long Beach St. -19.65% -45.69% -5.49
143 USC Upstate -18.31% -28.80% -5.60
144 North Florida -18.54% -33.55% -5.66
145 Northwestern St. -19.09% -33.98% -5.68
146 UNC Wilmington -19.67% -36.68% -5.70
147 Tennessee Martin -19.17% -33.78% -5.73
148 Wake Forest -16.81% -45.25% -5.79
149 Eastern Michigan -17.55% -35.10% -5.88
150 Colorado -18.73% -44.71% -5.89
151 Georgia Tech -19.54% -47.55% -6.00
152 Norfolk St. -19.25% -32.95% -6.01
153 Oakland -19.57% -40.97% -6.05
154 Hawaii -19.32% -34.85% -6.07
155 San Diego -18.99% -42.59% -6.27
156 UC Santa Barbara -21.09% -41.02% -6.27
157 Akron -20.23% -38.78% -6.27
158 NJIT -23.39% -36.73% -6.43
159 East Tennessee St. -22.15% -37.40% -6.51
160 Texas Tech -18.40% -46.47% -6.54
161 UT Arlington -22.27% -37.07% -6.57
162 Montana -21.86% -35.73% -6.64
163 Lafayette -23.14% -37.05% -6.64
164 Cal Poly -23.76% -43.17% -6.76
165 Hofstra -22.23% -35.39% -6.77
166 Columbia -24.71% -40.52% -6.80
167 UAB -23.63% -41.72% -6.80
168 Gardner Webb -21.07% -36.54% -6.92
169 New Hampshire -23.79% -35.13% -6.94
170 New Mexico -23.67% -45.03% -6.99
171 James Madison -21.61% -37.37% -7.05
172 Eastern Illinois -22.77% -39.43% -7.08
173 Tulane -22.14% -41.75% -7.08
174 DePaul -22.16% -49.69% -7.14
175 IPFW -27.08% -41.48% -7.16
176 Bucknell -22.58% -37.39% -7.20
177 Auburn -21.97% -48.56% -7.23
178 Washington St. -21.83% -48.55% -7.31
179 Winthrop -26.77% -38.40% -7.32
180 Vermont -25.91% -38.60% -7.57
181 Monmouth -25.26% -40.92% -7.67
182 Maryland Eastern Shore -25.99% -40.58% -7.70
183 Oral Roberts -26.68% -42.66% -7.73
184 Indiana St. -25.05% -44.51% -7.79
185 Manhattan -26.07% -41.57% -7.84
186 Mount St. Mary’s -27.82% -43.16% -7.86
187 Canisius -28.24% -43.68% -7.94
188 Mississippi St. -23.59% -48.48% -7.99
189 Lehigh -26.88% -41.28% -8.00
190 Northern Arizona -26.21% -40.94% -8.00
191 Middle Tennessee -25.37% -42.79% -8.06
192 UC Riverside -25.53% -43.11% -8.06
193 Louisiana Lafayette -27.20% -40.46% -8.19
194 Portland St. -28.61% -41.63% -8.22
195 Santa Clara -28.06% -50.25% -8.38
196 Mercer -26.61% -41.50% -8.40
197 Grand Canyon -27.73% -38.59% -8.45
198 Charlotte -30.53% -50.81% -8.52
199 Texas A&M Corpus Chris -29.18% -41.52% -8.53
200 UTSA -30.85% -45.20% -8.70
201 USC -30.45% -54.68% -8.86
202 San Francisco -30.51% -51.17% -8.86
203 Robert Morris -30.96% -46.10% -8.87
204 Boston College -30.32% -58.44% -8.90
205 Army -29.27% -41.40% -8.95
206 Virginia Tech -26.99% -53.25% -8.98
207 American -30.71% -46.81% -9.04
208 UCF -30.14% -49.28% -9.06
209 Rutgers -27.05% -55.94% -9.07
210 Air Force -31.88% -49.73% -9.09
211 Lamar -28.61% -43.76% -9.10
212 St. Francis PA -31.25% -45.16% -9.21
213 Quinnipiac -32.26% -45.87% -9.22
214 North Texas -27.90% -45.75% -9.26
215 Saint Joseph’s -29.04% -50.40% -9.31
216 South Dakota -30.76% -45.43% -9.48
217 Bryant -34.11% -49.03% -9.60
218 Howard -31.02% -43.84% -9.63
219 Detroit -30.69% -51.73% -9.65
220 Missouri -31.83% -59.91% -9.70
221 Milwaukee -32.82% -52.37% -9.73
222 Princeton -33.12% -49.02% -9.76
223 East Carolina -30.61% -50.34% -9.76
224 Delaware St. -32.85% -49.60% -9.88
225 Hartford -34.27% -48.50% -9.90
226 Western Carolina -34.31% -50.20% -9.91
227 Cornell -33.36% -50.36% -9.93
228 SIU Edwardsville -37.42% -51.20% -9.94
229 UNC Asheville -35.31% -49.28% -10.13
230 Fresno St. -31.61% -51.20% -10.14
231 Boston University -36.73% -50.70% -10.22
232 Morehead St. -35.44% -51.28% -10.30
233 McNeese St. -39.50% -53.73% -10.33
234 Saint Louis -32.73% -53.58% -10.37
235 Northern Illinois -35.09% -55.04% -10.37
236 Pacific -33.87% -54.63% -10.43
237 Miami OH -33.82% -52.70% -10.44
238 Northern Colorado -38.49% -51.41% -10.45
239 Seattle -37.98% -48.12% -10.67
240 Texas St. -38.29% -52.74% -10.72
241 Colgate -35.27% -51.39% -10.76
242 Southern -34.31% -47.57% -10.85
243 Dartmouth -38.68% -55.22% -10.90
244 FIU -33.06% -48.47% -10.94
245 Southeast Missouri St. -39.20% -53.88% -11.02
246 Holy Cross -39.99% -54.87% -11.04
247 Weber St. -39.43% -54.07% -11.08
248 Wright St. -38.19% -56.50% -11.12
249 Brown -35.07% -51.85% -11.15
250 Houston Baptist -37.35% -51.37% -11.15
251 Lipscomb -38.45% -52.43% -11.16
252 Idaho -40.59% -53.57% -11.19
253 UMass Lowell -37.72% -53.54% -11.23
254 Duquesne -38.93% -59.43% -11.28
255 Fordham -39.70% -62.32% -11.40
256 Drake -38.68% -61.35% -11.48
257 Missouri St. -39.13% -58.79% -11.51
258 Saint Peter’s -37.81% -52.55% -11.63
259 Northern Kentucky -40.47% -55.33% -11.64
260 LIU Brooklyn -39.42% -52.92% -11.69
261 Prairie View A&M -40.24% -55.13% -11.70
262 New Orleans -46.76% -61.64% -11.76
263 Loyola MD -40.82% -56.06% -11.76
264 Denver -39.77% -55.89% -11.77
265 George Mason -37.81% -62.02% -11.78
266 Houston -40.53% -60.44% -11.94
267 Loyola Marymount -39.71% -64.80% -12.03
268 Arkansas St. -42.22% -57.01% -12.10
269 Arkansas Little Rock -38.57% -52.72% -12.14
270 VMI -42.03% -56.15% -12.17
271 Sacred Heart -40.78% -52.64% -12.19
272 Towson -39.68% -55.08% -12.36
273 Hampton -41.82% -54.75% -12.38
274 Tennessee Tech -39.88% -54.43% -12.41
275 Drexel -43.29% -59.85% -12.51
276 IUPUI -44.84% -63.62% -12.61
277 Utah Valley -44.46% -57.28% -12.71
278 Youngstown St. -40.57% -58.21% -12.73
279 Cal St. Bakersfield -40.92% -52.64% -12.75
280 Elon -40.52% -55.09% -12.82
281 Ohio -43.51% -64.67% -12.94
282 UMKC -43.86% -57.51% -12.96
283 Penn -46.05% -65.21% -12.97
284 Samford -42.23% -55.77% -12.99
285 Southern Illinois -42.20% -60.44% -12.99
286 Appalachian St. -44.76% -60.87% -13.07
287 South Florida -43.74% -65.87% -13.13
288 Navy -43.75% -57.58% -13.14
289 Rice -41.64% -58.01% -13.14
290 Siena -44.74% -60.27% -13.24
291 Ball St. -46.14% -67.16% -13.25
292 Southeastern Louisiana -46.50% -61.37% -13.52
293 Troy -45.75% -58.94% -13.52
294 Wagner -45.65% -59.96% -13.53
295 Nevada -46.43% -65.04% -13.71
296 Alabama A&M -50.86% -63.88% -13.72
297 Marshall -45.48% -62.75% -13.85
298 The Citadel -47.51% -60.18% -13.91
299 Nicholls St. -50.89% -66.14% -13.95
300 Western Illinois -50.26% -65.17% -13.96
301 North Dakota -48.85% -64.41% -14.02
302 Florida Atlantic -47.81% -64.46% -14.04
303 Delaware -49.38% -65.88% -14.10
304 Jacksonville St. -43.85% -55.99% -14.16
305 Bradley -46.75% -66.82% -14.32
306 Nebraska Omaha -49.51% -62.95% -14.55
307 South Carolina St. -48.12% -61.59% -14.56
308 Southern Miss -49.36% -68.63% -14.65
309 Cal St. Fullerton -45.99% -63.31% -14.73
310 Southern Utah -51.85% -65.41% -14.90
311 Kennesaw St. -48.29% -62.34% -14.91
312 Jackson St. -52.04% -64.15% -14.99
313 South Alabama -49.57% -64.81% -15.11
314 Savannah St. -52.53% -68.79% -15.23
315 Niagara -53.60% -71.11% -15.25
316 Texas Pan American -50.80% -64.18% -15.29
317 Arkansas Pine Bluff -51.98% -65.70% -15.54
318 Cal St. Northridge -50.65% -69.82% -15.71
319 Coppin St. -55.45% -73.43% -15.71
320 Bethune Cookman -51.81% -61.21% -15.77
321 Fairleigh Dickinson -56.78% -70.93% -15.98
322 Campbell -52.05% -65.76% -16.01
323 Abilene Christian -50.65% -63.98% -16.02
324 Furman -55.24% -70.07% -16.06
325 Illinois Chicago -52.49% -71.52% -16.18
326 College of Charleston -51.89% -71.12% -16.20
327 Presbyterian -51.12% -65.34% -16.26
328 Austin Peay -55.42% -71.56% -16.54
329 Fairfield -55.80% -71.29% -16.56
330 Morgan St. -55.91% -71.34% -16.60
331 UNC Greensboro -54.08% -66.55% -16.64
332 Stetson -56.14% -68.86% -16.74
333 Jacksonville -54.20% -66.34% -16.88
334 Montana St. -55.52% -69.37% -16.89
335 Longwood -56.28% -70.47% -17.17
336 North Carolina A&T -57.67% -71.66% -17.31
337 Chicago St. -56.94% -74.36% -17.53
338 Idaho St. -63.66% -75.76% -18.82
339 Mississippi Valley St. -64.43% -78.53% -18.99
340 Tennessee St. -61.85% -77.95% -19.25
341 UMBC -67.22% -81.97% -19.35
342 Liberty -62.50% -73.98% -19.43
343 Marist -64.95% -79.68% -19.43
344 Maine -67.71% -85.14% -19.54
345 Binghamton -65.02% -79.99% -19.67
346 Alcorn St. -66.23% -78.31% -20.22
347 Central Connecticut -67.10% -80.20% -20.69
348 Grambling St. -74.40% -88.12% -20.73
349 San Jose St. -68.91% -88.39% -20.85
350 Central Arkansas -79.74% -93.52% -22.93
351 Florida A&M -81.45% -93.96% -23.24
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