February 9th NCAA Basketball Elo and WAB

I’ve made a slight change to Wins-Above-Bubble, dropping the bubble standard to a pythag of .7700. That gives us 47 teams above the mendoza line.

For the record, I’d have UK, UVA, Gonaga, and Wisconsin as my #1 seeds at the moment.

Team Elo WAB WAST WAM
1 Kentucky 99.62 8.34 4.38 2.09
2 Kansas 94.15 8.15 3.28 -0.21
3 Virginia 97.74 7.61 3.62 1.24
4 Gonzaga 96.82 6.38 2.72 0.74
5 Wisconsin 95.06 6.09 2.22 0.01
6 Duke 93.70 6.05 1.87 -0.64
7 Villanova 94.57 5.65 1.93 -0.14
8 North Carolina 90.14 5.19 0.37 -2.80
9 Arizona 92.96 5.05 1.19 -1.01
10 Louisville 90.55 4.32 0.37 -1.91
11 Baylor 89.83 4.18 0.03 -2.53
12 Northern Iowa 91.47 3.66 0.72 -0.76
13 VCU 87.62 3.63 -0.42 -2.80
14 Wichita St. 89.43 3.26 0.08 -1.58
15 Oklahoma 87.34 3.12 -1.36 -4.20
16 Utah 89.06 2.93 -0.44 -2.32
17 Maryland 85.41 2.92 -0.94 -3.08
18 West Virginia 85.89 2.62 -1.08 -3.15
19 Butler 85.26 2.43 -1.61 -3.91
20 Iowa St. 85.88 2.42 -1.17 -3.19
21 Providence 83.12 2.37 -1.97 -4.57
22 Notre Dame 86.22 2.32 -0.93 -2.59
23 Georgia 83.35 2.04 -2.08 -4.59
24 Oklahoma St. 83.88 1.98 -2.12 -4.62
25 Georgetown 83.26 1.89 -2.53 -5.30
26 Arkansas 82.39 1.32 -1.88 -3.56
27 Colorado St. 80.67 1.26 -1.49 -2.86
28 Texas A&M 81.06 1.08 -2.39 -4.30
29 Texas 81.47 1.01 -3.16 -5.66
30 San Diego St. 80.95 0.94 -2.51 -4.37
31 SMU 81.83 0.91 -2.12 -3.68
32 Dayton 80.40 0.69 -2.22 -3.72
33 Ohio St. 81.60 0.68 -2.70 -4.47
34 Tulsa 78.69 0.58 -2.29 -3.76
35 Mississippi 79.93 0.53 -3.15 -5.18
36 Iowa 79.75 0.44 -3.55 -5.87
37 Old Dominion 78.15 0.42 -1.93 -3.07
38 Xavier 79.64 0.38 -3.97 -6.56
39 LSU 78.51 0.28 -2.91 -4.57
40 Cincinnati 79.05 0.24 -2.93 -4.58
41 Saint Mary’s 77.55 0.23 -2.49 -3.85
42 Indiana 77.87 0.22 -3.37 -5.31
43 Stephen F. Austin 79.22 0.21 -1.53 -2.34
44 Stanford 78.67 0.14 -3.39 -5.31
45 UCLA 77.44 0.05 -4.49 -7.30
46 Seton Hall 77.21 0.03 -3.82 -6.01
47 Valparaiso 76.76 0.02 -2.15 -3.17
48 Green Bay 76.97 -0.02 -2.62 -3.92
49 Murray St. 75.79 -0.09 -2.20 -3.20
50 Miami FL 76.51 -0.11 -3.92 -6.06
51 Harvard 75.79 -0.16 -2.62 -3.91
52 Rhode Island 76.34 -0.18 -2.68 -3.94
53 George Washington 75.81 -0.21 -3.19 -4.71
54 Oregon 75.55 -0.26 -3.63 -5.43
55 Wofford 73.81 -0.27 -2.78 -4.00
56 Temple 76.22 -0.28 -3.67 -5.46
57 Boise St. 76.07 -0.35 -3.22 -4.72
58 St. John’s 76.45 -0.50 -4.12 -6.16
59 BYU 76.35 -0.55 -4.23 -6.24
60 Davidson 75.74 -0.57 -3.33 -4.77
61 UC Davis 71.99 -0.65 -2.46 -3.31
62 Alabama 75.39 -0.77 -4.64 -6.90
63 Buffalo 73.96 -0.79 -3.92 -5.58
64 Bowling Green 72.89 -0.81 -3.03 -4.11
65 Illinois 74.68 -0.83 -4.40 -6.32
66 Yale 71.79 -1.06 -4.06 -5.64
67 Michigan St. 75.31 -1.08 -4.52 -6.38
68 Eastern Washington 68.78 -1.09 -3.17 -4.18
69 Oregon St. 72.66 -1.15 -4.13 -5.68
70 Massachusetts 70.80 -1.32 -5.05 -7.13
71 Purdue 73.25 -1.38 -5.12 -7.18
72 Wyoming 67.71 -1.42 -3.36 -4.27
73 Florida 74.34 -1.44 -5.77 -8.44
74 Iona 69.74 -1.44 -3.88 -5.05
75 Pittsburgh 70.77 -1.45 -4.75 -6.49
76 Syracuse 71.04 -1.64 -4.86 -6.55
77 North Carolina St. 72.55 -1.66 -5.67 -7.94
78 Clemson 70.29 -1.75 -5.32 -7.28
79 Louisiana Tech 69.16 -1.76 -4.03 -5.12
80 Tennessee 69.27 -1.93 -5.40 -7.31
81 UTEP 68.06 -2.02 -4.64 -5.93
82 Central Michigan 64.05 -2.04 -3.64 -4.40
83 Michigan 69.68 -2.07 -6.21 -8.69
84 Long Beach St. 69.07 -2.08 -6.51 -9.29
85 Sam Houston St. 63.92 -2.18 -3.73 -4.44
86 Penn St. 69.14 -2.23 -5.65 -7.45
87 Georgia Southern 60.81 -2.27 -3.76 -4.45
88 Toledo 68.27 -2.36 -5.28 -6.76
89 Western Kentucky 63.91 -2.41 -4.82 -6.01
90 South Carolina 69.69 -2.45 -6.35 -8.73
91 Minnesota 69.90 -2.47 -5.76 -7.50
92 Vanderbilt 69.71 -2.54 -6.15 -8.18
93 La Salle 67.73 -2.56 -6.20 -8.21
94 Akron 64.47 -2.67 -4.97 -6.09
95 Kent St. 62.73 -2.76 -5.02 -6.11
96 North Carolina Central 60.80 -2.78 -4.54 -5.35
97 High Point 61.09 -2.80 -5.03 -6.12
98 Connecticut 67.27 -2.83 -5.95 -7.59
99 William & Mary 64.89 -2.85 -5.51 -6.86
100 California 63.40 -2.87 -6.02 -7.63
101 Washington 65.93 -2.89 -6.01 -7.62
102 Arizona St. 69.27 -2.90 -6.77 -8.99
103 Pepperdine 65.09 -2.96 -6.05 -7.64
104 Georgia Tech 68.05 -2.98 -7.15 -9.65
105 Illinois St. 66.86 -3.03 -6.09 -7.66
106 St. Bonaventure 62.60 -3.04 -5.62 -6.92
107 UNLV 64.85 -3.04 -6.47 -8.34
108 Kansas St. 66.85 -3.06 -7.26 -9.73
109 Nebraska 65.08 -3.08 -6.52 -8.38
110 Sacramento St. 53.76 -3.15 -4.71 -5.43
111 Incarnate Word 52.20 -3.19 -4.70 -5.42
112 Marquette 66.05 -3.21 -7.32 -9.74
113 Colorado 65.49 -3.24 -6.95 -9.07
114 Evansville 61.16 -3.24 -5.76 -6.99
115 Memphis 64.87 -3.27 -6.22 -7.73
116 Georgia St. 63.44 -3.27 -5.78 -7.00
117 Florida Gulf Coast 58.08 -3.34 -5.31 -6.25
118 UC Irvine 62.45 -3.43 -6.27 -7.74
119 Albany 56.79 -3.55 -5.44 -6.31
120 South Dakota St. 61.19 -3.57 -5.94 -7.08
121 Western Michigan 60.31 -3.59 -6.36 -7.79
122 TCU 64.20 -3.70 -6.46 -7.85
123 Louisiana Monroe 55.76 -3.74 -5.99 -7.09
124 Richmond 65.17 -3.87 -7.39 -9.31
125 Coastal Carolina 53.20 -3.89 -5.58 -6.37
126 DePaul 63.30 -3.92 -8.22 -10.72
127 Portland 60.63 -3.94 -7.01 -8.62
128 Northeastern 58.87 -3.96 -6.63 -7.93
129 North Dakota St. 52.52 -4.03 -5.66 -6.41
130 Lafayette 54.73 -4.04 -6.16 -7.17
131 Tennessee Martin 55.39 -4.08 -6.18 -7.18
132 Radford 54.40 -4.12 -6.21 -7.20
133 New Mexico 59.42 -4.25 -6.76 -7.99
134 Cleveland St. 60.48 -4.27 -7.22 -8.73
135 Gardner Webb 53.19 -4.35 -6.79 -8.00
136 UT Arlington 54.22 -4.40 -6.82 -8.01
137 Rider 56.07 -4.47 -6.90 -8.06
138 Alabama St. 36.74 -4.47 -5.33 -5.71
139 Belmont 54.75 -4.48 -6.88 -8.05
140 Loyola Chicago 56.09 -4.49 -7.32 -8.78
141 Auburn 58.22 -4.54 -8.15 -10.18
142 Eastern Michigan 53.54 -4.62 -6.91 -8.05
143 USC Upstate 48.10 -4.65 -5.96 -6.55
144 Florida St. 58.66 -4.69 -7.91 -9.58
145 UNC Wilmington 54.60 -4.69 -7.44 -8.83
146 Eastern Kentucky 55.52 -4.70 -6.98 -8.09
147 Utah St. 56.77 -4.74 -7.47 -8.85
148 UC Santa Barbara 55.19 -4.79 -7.86 -9.53
149 Norfolk St. 52.81 -4.84 -7.07 -8.14
150 Hawaii 53.44 -4.86 -7.08 -8.14
151 Eastern Illinois 51.48 -5.01 -7.63 -8.93
152 Boston College 57.78 -5.01 -8.80 -10.99
153 Wake Forest 58.96 -5.14 -8.97 -11.10
154 UAB 56.62 -5.15 -8.16 -9.70
155 Washington St. 54.28 -5.16 -8.95 -11.08
156 Chattanooga 50.17 -5.19 -7.25 -8.22
157 Oakland 56.64 -5.19 -8.97 -11.09
158 Creighton 59.31 -5.25 -9.45 -11.83
159 Stony Brook 52.74 -5.25 -7.77 -8.99
160 Texas Tech 54.61 -5.36 -8.72 -10.49
161 Cal Poly 51.03 -5.39 -8.19 -9.69
162 Hofstra 51.48 -5.40 -7.37 -8.28
163 Charleston Southern 45.04 -5.52 -7.40 -8.28
164 Northwestern St. 41.94 -5.54 -7.38 -8.27
165 St. Francis NY 49.22 -5.55 -7.44 -8.31
166 San Diego 56.97 -5.56 -8.84 -10.54
167 Rutgers 55.04 -5.56 -9.99 -12.59
168 Oral Roberts 51.31 -5.57 -8.39 -9.81
169 Columbia 44.88 -5.66 -7.46 -8.31
170 Northwestern 54.80 -5.72 -9.30 -11.27
171 James Madison 50.54 -5.79 -8.54 -9.89
172 NJIT 49.24 -5.82 -8.07 -9.14
173 Tulane 47.67 -5.84 -8.06 -9.13
174 Middle Tennessee 50.29 -5.86 -8.56 -9.89
175 New Mexico St. 51.49 -5.88 -8.10 -9.15
176 St. Francis PA 46.25 -5.89 -8.09 -9.14
177 Lehigh 46.72 -5.94 -8.12 -9.16
178 East Tennessee St. 45.10 -5.97 -8.12 -9.16
179 Mississippi St. 50.71 -6.00 -9.04 -10.64
180 Army 40.79 -6.00 -7.65 -8.40
181 North Florida 48.45 -6.06 -8.18 -9.19
182 Saint Joseph’s 50.25 -6.18 -9.15 -10.69
183 American 47.69 -6.20 -8.75 -9.99
184 Texas Southern 48.09 -6.31 -9.25 -10.74
185 Missouri 47.75 -6.41 -10.67 -13.36
186 Santa Clara 48.74 -6.43 -10.12 -12.17
187 Indiana St. 49.48 -6.44 -9.32 -10.78
188 USC 51.03 -6.50 -10.16 -12.19
189 Canisius 47.21 -6.52 -8.91 -10.06
190 Montana 42.66 -6.59 -8.43 -9.30
191 Vermont 46.60 -6.60 -8.46 -9.32
192 Quinnipiac 44.26 -6.66 -8.49 -9.33
193 Wright St. 47.07 -6.66 -9.84 -11.53
194 UTSA 40.35 -6.78 -8.53 -9.35
195 Northern Arizona 43.72 -6.81 -9.05 -10.12
196 Portland St. 35.36 -6.88 -8.57 -9.36
197 Charlotte 49.47 -6.88 -10.00 -11.62
198 New Hampshire 40.01 -6.96 -8.63 -9.39
199 Mount St. Mary’s 45.36 -6.98 -9.62 -10.92
200 Northern Colorado 36.86 -7.02 -8.65 -9.40
201 Texas A&M Corpus Chris 35.07 -7.07 -8.67 -9.41
202 IPFW 41.32 -7.07 -9.18 -10.18
203 Mercer 44.07 -7.08 -9.20 -10.20
204 Manhattan 42.69 -7.12 -9.22 -10.21
205 Cornell 41.40 -7.15 -9.22 -10.20
206 Bucknell 45.10 -7.20 -9.75 -10.99
207 Winthrop 37.03 -7.24 -8.76 -9.45
208 Ohio 42.13 -7.26 -9.74 -10.97
209 UNC Asheville 38.53 -7.31 -9.29 -10.23
210 Louisiana Lafayette 40.88 -7.33 -9.31 -10.24
211 Robert Morris 44.37 -7.36 -9.83 -11.03
212 Texas St. 36.75 -7.37 -9.31 -10.24
213 Northern Illinois 40.01 -7.40 -9.80 -11.00
214 Houston Baptist 26.26 -7.46 -8.84 -9.48
215 UC Riverside 39.70 -7.49 -9.86 -11.03
216 Hartford 35.88 -7.52 -9.41 -10.29
217 Fresno St. 39.68 -7.54 -9.89 -11.05
218 Princeton 38.25 -7.55 -9.41 -10.29
219 Monmouth 42.81 -7.64 -9.99 -11.10
220 Bryant 40.18 -7.68 -9.99 -11.10
221 Penn 35.05 -7.69 -9.94 -11.07
222 FIU 38.21 -7.73 -9.99 -11.10
223 McNeese St. 31.82 -7.73 -9.93 -11.05
224 Dartmouth 39.67 -7.74 -9.99 -11.09
225 Weber St. 36.37 -7.76 -10.00 -11.09
226 George Mason 41.15 -7.80 -11.27 -13.23
227 UCF 37.43 -7.88 -10.53 -11.87
228 Howard 32.61 -7.89 -9.58 -10.37
229 Maryland Eastern Shore 40.76 -7.93 -10.14 -11.17
230 Saint Louis 38.94 -7.94 -10.58 -11.90
231 Grand Canyon 34.48 -7.98 -9.64 -10.40
232 Appalachian St. 34.49 -8.05 -10.16 -11.18
233 Pacific 38.28 -8.10 -11.08 -12.65
234 Drexel 37.98 -8.30 -10.78 -12.00
235 Lamar 30.40 -8.38 -10.31 -11.24
236 Loyola Marymount 42.47 -8.41 -12.50 -14.85
237 Idaho 32.20 -8.41 -10.33 -11.25
238 Delaware St. 35.10 -8.47 -10.85 -12.03
239 Western Carolina 38.10 -8.50 -10.90 -12.05
240 East Carolina 36.44 -8.50 -10.87 -12.04
241 Air Force 35.47 -8.53 -10.41 -11.29
242 Virginia Tech 41.60 -8.56 -11.39 -12.81
243 Seattle 27.87 -8.56 -9.91 -10.52
244 Boston University 34.82 -8.59 -10.92 -12.06
245 Northern Kentucky 34.31 -8.69 -10.97 -12.08
246 Brown 33.67 -8.71 -10.98 -12.09
247 Milwaukee 37.10 -8.77 -11.91 -13.57
248 San Francisco 44.09 -8.78 -12.37 -14.31
249 Saint Peter’s 39.05 -8.79 -11.06 -12.13
250 Missouri St. 37.63 -8.82 -11.94 -13.58
251 Denver 36.36 -8.83 -11.07 -12.14
252 Florida Atlantic 30.21 -8.85 -11.03 -12.11
253 Detroit 41.07 -8.90 -12.03 -13.64
254 Tennessee Tech 34.27 -8.92 -11.11 -12.15
255 North Texas 30.73 -8.93 -11.09 -12.14
256 Southeast Missouri St. 33.52 -8.94 -11.12 -12.16
257 Siena 33.37 -8.94 -11.12 -12.16
258 Colgate 40.54 -8.95 -11.62 -12.92
259 Drake 36.34 -9.07 -12.88 -15.05
260 Morehead St. 39.11 -9.08 -11.69 -12.96
261 Holy Cross 30.97 -9.13 -11.20 -12.20
262 Ball St. 32.22 -9.15 -11.66 -12.93
263 North Dakota 28.93 -9.21 -11.70 -12.95
264 Houston 32.41 -9.22 -11.26 -12.23
265 Lipscomb 28.33 -9.25 -11.26 -12.22
266 Duquesne 30.85 -9.31 -11.75 -12.97
267 Arkansas St. 29.71 -9.31 -11.30 -12.24
268 Southern 29.68 -9.39 -11.34 -12.26
269 New Orleans 17.54 -9.47 -11.32 -12.24
270 South Florida 35.77 -9.48 -13.15 -15.19
271 Western Illinois 23.59 -9.54 -11.40 -12.28
272 South Dakota 34.02 -9.63 -11.98 -13.10
273 Nicholls St. 18.51 -9.65 -11.43 -12.30
274 Fordham 29.17 -9.70 -12.40 -13.80
275 UMass Lowell 30.73 -9.72 -12.01 -13.11
276 Cal St. Fullerton 29.86 -9.73 -11.99 -13.10
277 Elon 31.73 -9.75 -12.03 -13.12
278 SIU Edwardsville 27.54 -9.76 -11.52 -12.34
279 LIU Brooklyn 28.70 -9.82 -11.57 -12.37
280 Loyola MD 29.68 -9.84 -12.08 -13.14
281 Towson 32.64 -9.96 -12.14 -13.17
282 Rice 25.12 -9.99 -12.11 -13.14
283 Troy 24.27 -10.03 -11.65 -12.40
284 IUPUI 33.45 -10.21 -13.21 -14.73
285 Utah Valley 24.48 -10.34 -12.31 -13.25
286 Southern Illinois 33.70 -10.36 -12.84 -14.03
287 Miami OH 29.84 -10.41 -12.84 -14.02
288 Samford 29.37 -10.48 -12.41 -13.30
289 Sacred Heart 29.92 -10.53 -12.43 -13.31
290 Arkansas Little Rock 26.64 -10.61 -12.46 -13.32
291 Nevada 25.63 -10.62 -12.92 -14.06
292 Southeastern Louisiana 26.30 -10.65 -13.40 -14.81
293 Youngstown St. 29.21 -10.81 -13.52 -14.88
294 Abilene Christian 19.62 -10.95 -12.61 -13.39
295 Hampton 23.93 -10.95 -12.63 -13.40
296 UMKC 26.81 -10.96 -13.13 -14.17
297 Navy 26.29 -11.14 -13.23 -14.21
298 Southern Miss 20.09 -11.16 -13.67 -14.94
299 Bradley 30.86 -11.21 -14.21 -15.73
300 Marshall 26.41 -11.25 -13.75 -14.98
301 Alabama A&M 15.13 -11.41 -12.84 -13.49
302 Wagner 23.11 -11.44 -13.37 -14.28
303 Nebraska Omaha 23.63 -11.49 -13.40 -14.29
304 South Carolina St. 25.32 -11.51 -13.92 -15.07
305 Savannah St. 15.74 -11.67 -14.38 -15.80
306 Furman 21.07 -11.70 -13.98 -15.09
307 Prairie View A&M 21.99 -11.72 -14.00 -15.10
308 Fairleigh Dickinson 21.67 -11.75 -14.01 -15.11
309 The Citadel 17.04 -11.75 -13.51 -14.34
310 VMI 22.18 -11.83 -14.06 -15.13
311 Delaware 25.39 -11.87 -14.56 -15.89
312 Campbell 23.70 -11.95 -14.12 -15.16
313 Cal St. Bakersfield 22.42 -12.02 -13.67 -14.41
314 Texas Pan American 17.73 -12.06 -14.17 -15.18
315 College of Charleston 27.80 -12.47 -15.37 -16.81
316 Jacksonville St. 22.76 -12.49 -14.91 -16.06
317 Southern Utah 14.74 -12.61 -14.44 -15.31
318 Austin Peay 19.35 -12.66 -14.97 -16.09
319 Fairfield 21.84 -12.67 -14.99 -16.10
320 South Alabama 19.45 -12.70 -14.99 -16.10
321 Jackson St. 18.66 -12.76 -14.54 -15.35
322 Cal St. Northridge 23.58 -12.80 -15.98 -17.61
323 Coppin St. 18.73 -12.84 -15.53 -16.87
324 Kennesaw St. 19.98 -12.90 -15.11 -16.16
325 Stetson 14.72 -12.97 -14.63 -15.39
326 Arkansas Pine Bluff 19.70 -13.11 -15.22 -16.21
327 Illinois Chicago 19.97 -13.32 -16.25 -17.74
328 Presbyterian 13.53 -13.35 -15.32 -16.25
329 Chicago St. 14.12 -13.45 -16.31 -17.77
330 UNC Greensboro 16.95 -13.57 -15.44 -16.31
331 Bethune Cookman 13.28 -13.66 -14.97 -15.55
332 Longwood 17.13 -13.82 -16.06 -17.13
333 Morgan St. 15.39 -13.99 -16.15 -17.17
334 Niagara 16.86 -14.08 -16.68 -17.95
335 Alcorn St. 8.03 -14.25 -15.76 -16.45
336 Grambling St. 0.44 -14.42 -16.32 -17.24
337 Marist 17.16 -14.52 -16.92 -18.07
338 Idaho St. 11.32 -14.58 -16.44 -17.30
339 Montana St. 12.23 -14.62 -16.95 -18.08
340 North Carolina A&T 13.39 -14.77 -17.04 -18.12
341 Jacksonville 10.68 -14.78 -16.54 -17.35
342 Tennessee St. 13.06 -14.79 -17.51 -18.87
343 Mississippi Valley St. 11.22 -15.17 -17.24 -18.22
344 San Jose St. 0.98 -15.67 -18.41 -19.81
345 Liberty 6.45 -15.88 -17.59 -18.37
346 Maine 10.31 -16.08 -18.69 -19.96
347 Central Arkansas 3.20 -16.11 -17.69 -18.42
348 UMBC 8.49 -16.41 -18.37 -19.27
349 Binghamton 10.10 -16.71 -19.02 -20.11
350 Central Connecticut 7.11 -18.40 -20.37 -21.28
351 Florida A&M 0.41 -18.71 -20.51 -21.34
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2 comments
  1. adam said:

    Would you support (entirely hypothetically) seeding the 1-line from WAM, 2-4 from WAS, and downward from WAB? Or something like that? A combination of two of the metrics for particular lines?

    • sethburn said:

      I’d be comfortable with that, but I’m working on something that gives a more definitive answer to the question. The issue I have is this:

      Team A has a better resume than team B. Team B would be favored by 3 over team A on a neutral court. In terms of which team gets in to the tournament, easily team A. However, does seeding team A higher always make sense? If we seed purely on resumes, we could have a situation where one region is loaded and another is a cakewalk. I don’t have any easy answers for this at the moment.

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