What if we played out Lunardi’s bracket?

This is using the KenPom Pythagorean ratings:

Some notes: KenPom’s rating for Virginia is higher than their market rating. KenPom appears to be underrating Duke and Wisconsin. KenPom is definitely underrating Kentucky. The first column is the team, their power rating, and finally their odds of advancing to each round.

I assumed the stronger team won each play-in game. Let’s not sweat the small stuff. Temple and Miami FL are basically equal anyway.

Lunardi’s bracket can be found here: http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology/_/iteration/220

KenPom’s ratings can be found here: http://kenpom.com/

Name Pyth S32 S16 S8 S4 S2 S1 champ
East
Virginia 0.9748 0.9781 0.8616 0.7391 0.5805 0.393 0.226 3.43
Colgate 0.4639 0.0219 0.0032 0.0004 0.0000 0.000 0.000 11498752.92
Oklahoma St. 0.8607 0.6218 0.0957 0.0485 0.0192 0.005 0.001 910.34
Seton Hall 0.7898 0.3782 0.0395 0.0154 0.0045 0.001 0.000 8118.82
Northern Iowa 0.8984 0.7484 0.5142 0.1272 0.0608 0.021 0.006 177.71
Miami FL 0.7483 0.2516 0.1092 0.0123 0.0031 0.000 0.000 17373.67
Maryland 0.8345 0.7044 0.3029 0.0508 0.0179 0.004 0.001 1309.72
Yale 0.6791 0.2956 0.0737 0.0063 0.0012 0.000 0.000 76625.24
Arkansas 0.8318 0.4571 0.2211 0.0699 0.0138 0.003 0.001 1747.97
Xavier 0.8545 0.5429 0.2851 0.1001 0.0222 0.006 0.001 846.69
Iowa St. 0.8713 0.6927 0.3844 0.1466 0.0357 0.010 0.002 431.72
Louisiana Tech 0.7502 0.3073 0.1095 0.0248 0.0034 0.001 0.000 15353.13
Indiana 0.7893 0.4056 0.0927 0.0374 0.0061 0.001 0.000 6063.07
Mississippi 0.8459 0.5944 0.1747 0.0868 0.0184 0.005 0.001 1125.34
Villanova 0.9412 0.9322 0.7190 0.5319 0.2131 0.101 0.039 24.71
Albany 0.5378 0.0678 0.0136 0.0024 0.0002 0.000 0.000 1786542.57
West
Gonzaga 0.9591 0.9566 0.7596 0.5846 0.3456 0.175 0.082 11.26
St. Francis NY 0.5152 0.0434 0.0065 0.0009 0.0001 0.000 0.000 4880817.92
San Diego St. 0.8540 0.4813 0.1096 0.0508 0.0146 0.003 0.001 1450.01
Texas 0.8631 0.5187 0.1244 0.0599 0.0181 0.004 0.001 1055.25
Butler 0.8881 0.8014 0.4547 0.1501 0.0523 0.015 0.004 267.73
Wofford 0.6630 0.1986 0.0516 0.0062 0.0008 0.000 0.000 146479.72
West Virginia 0.8860 0.7519 0.4173 0.1360 0.0468 0.013 0.003 307.63
William & Mary 0.7194 0.2481 0.0764 0.0114 0.0018 0.000 0.000 41455.30
Providence 0.8008 0.5448 0.1650 0.0352 0.0084 0.001 0.000 4391.32
Purdue 0.7706 0.4552 0.1229 0.0230 0.0048 0.001 0.000 10085.43
Louisville 0.9257 0.8601 0.6627 0.2825 0.1323 0.049 0.016 60.20
South Dakota St. 0.6695 0.1399 0.0495 0.0063 0.0009 0.000 0.000 125238.54
SMU 0.8777 0.6441 0.1739 0.0818 0.0284 0.008 0.002 563.77
Iowa 0.7986 0.3559 0.0641 0.0219 0.0052 0.001 0.000 7286.80
Arizona 0.9613 0.9135 0.7368 0.5433 0.3390 0.176 0.084 10.87
UC Irvine 0.7017 0.0865 0.0252 0.0061 0.0010 0.000 0.000 88562.15
South
Duke 0.9357 0.9260 0.6889 0.3567 0.2181 0.072 0.028 34.78
Radford 0.5376 0.0740 0.0140 0.0012 0.0001 0.000 0.000 2641595.51
Georgia 0.8438 0.5420 0.1689 0.0495 0.0186 0.003 0.001 1558.85
Dayton 0.8203 0.4580 0.1283 0.0335 0.0113 0.002 0.000 3303.65
Oklahoma 0.9340 0.8300 0.4366 0.2496 0.1510 0.049 0.019 52.38
Murray St. 0.7435 0.1700 0.0342 0.0080 0.0020 0.000 0.000 39223.44
Utah 0.9428 0.7784 0.4602 0.2791 0.1786 0.064 0.026 36.97
Stephen F. Austin 0.8243 0.2216 0.0691 0.0223 0.0077 0.001 0.000 4681.57
Georgetown 0.8663 0.6844 0.2992 0.1263 0.0421 0.008 0.002 527.11
Colorado St. 0.7492 0.3156 0.0878 0.0227 0.0044 0.000 0.000 16897.64
North Carolina 0.9134 0.8633 0.5783 0.3113 0.1383 0.038 0.012 82.23
New Mexico St. 0.6254 0.1367 0.0346 0.0058 0.0007 0.000 0.000 290230.16
Ohio St. 0.8902 0.6803 0.3142 0.1604 0.0614 0.014 0.004 263.80
Texas A&M 0.7921 0.3197 0.0965 0.0326 0.0075 0.001 0.000 6601.20
Kansas 0.9215 0.8716 0.5611 0.3354 0.1576 0.046 0.016 62.91
Georgia Southern 0.6336 0.1284 0.0282 0.0055 0.0007 0.000 0.000 279184.64
Midwest
Kentucky 0.9820 0.9792 0.8850 0.7835 0.6302 0.514 0.352 1.84
North Florida 0.5366 0.0208 0.0035 0.0005 0.0001 0.000 0.000 3872104.03
Michigan St. 0.8671 0.5720 0.0699 0.0344 0.0121 0.004 0.001 1012.64
Cincinnati 0.8300 0.4280 0.0416 0.0176 0.0052 0.002 0.000 3577.34
Wichita St. 0.8957 0.7886 0.4763 0.0904 0.0374 0.016 0.004 229.56
Iona 0.6972 0.2114 0.0636 0.0044 0.0008 0.000 0.000 80174.88
VCU 0.8772 0.7098 0.3677 0.0613 0.0228 0.009 0.002 476.56
Buffalo 0.7449 0.2902 0.0924 0.0078 0.0016 0.000 0.000 25600.92
Baylor 0.9141 0.7663 0.4603 0.2067 0.0534 0.025 0.008 123.97
Tulsa 0.7644 0.2337 0.0764 0.0166 0.0019 0.000 0.000 18262.73
Notre Dame 0.9003 0.7395 0.3873 0.1598 0.0372 0.016 0.005 216.56
Valparaiso 0.7608 0.2605 0.0761 0.0163 0.0018 0.000 0.000 19503.18
Stanford 0.8494 0.5485 0.1493 0.0605 0.0103 0.003 0.001 1456.03
LSU 0.8228 0.4515 0.1081 0.0391 0.0058 0.002 0.000 3426.58
Wisconsin 0.9500 0.9207 0.7235 0.4977 0.1792 0.109 0.049 19.55
North Carolina Central 0.6206 0.0793 0.0191 0.0033 0.0002 0.000 0.000 506583.10
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