Updated KenPom Elo’s

Let me explain some of these terms:

WAB is Wins Above Bubble. The bubble team’s pythag is set at .7800. Let’s look at Michigan State. They’ve been having a tough season, and right now they are 0.59 wins below what we would expect of a team with a pythag of 0.7800. Michigan St. has a pythag of .8706. I expect them to enter March Madness with a positive WAB.

WAST is Wins Above Strong Team. A strong team’s pythag is set at .8900. Let’s look at Northern Iowa. They currently have a WAST of 0.62, which puts them more than half a win ahead of the pace we’d expect a normal strong team to run against their schedule. That’s pretty solid.

WAM is Wins Above Monster. A monster team’s pythag is set at .9500. Let’s look at Kansas. They currently have a WAM of .32. Not only have they faced a ridiculous schedule, they’ve smashed it. They are one of only 4 teams with a positive WAM. Please note, Elo is a rate-stat, while WAM is a counting stat. If I had to choose my 4th #1 seed, I’d lean Kansas ahead of Arizona, but there are legitimate arguments to be made for both sides.

Even after the win at UVA I don’t see Duke as a #1 seed ahead of Kansas or Arizona. Kansas has the same record, against a tougher overall schedule. As for Gonzaga, I’m comfortable with them as a #1 seed. As for Syracuse, they’re currently between Wofford and Yale. Oy. 😦

Elo Rank Team KenPom Elo WAB WAST WAM
1 Kentucky 99.67 7.00 3.77 1.79
2 Virginia 97.30 5.97 2.80 0.82
3 Gonzaga 96.73 5.53 2.44 0.61
4 Arizona 94.93 5.29 1.93 -0.14
5 Kansas 94.84 7.53 3.43 0.32
6 Wisconsin 94.49 4.94 1.73 -0.23
7 Villanova 94.07 4.71 1.59 -0.31
8 Duke 93.24 5.08 1.52 -0.81
9 Northern Iowa 91.27 3.19 0.62 -0.80
10 Louisville 90.83 3.48 0.43 -1.39
11 North Carolina 90.32 4.34 0.37 -2.34
12 West Virginia 89.57 3.00 0.13 -1.54
13 Wichita St. 89.56 2.91 0.07 -1.57
14 VCU 89.42 3.78 0.30 -1.92
15 Baylor 87.78 2.73 -0.67 -2.89
16 Notre Dame 87.46 1.95 -0.53 -1.88
17 Utah 87.33 1.92 -0.85 -2.52
18 Maryland 86.69 2.67 -0.48 -2.35
19 Iowa St. 86.55 2.14 -0.75 -2.47
20 Georgetown 85.42 2.13 -1.45 -3.79
21 Oklahoma 85.17 1.67 -2.05 -4.56
22 Butler 84.80 1.83 -1.71 -3.94
23 Colorado St. 83.16 1.33 -0.85 -2.03
24 SMU 83.06 0.85 -1.56 -2.89
25 Georgia 83.01 1.35 -1.94 -4.04
26 San Diego St. 82.63 0.88 -1.94 -3.58
27 Dayton 82.16 0.90 -1.51 -2.86
28 Providence 82.15 1.51 -1.93 -4.06
29 Ohio St. 81.97 0.49 -2.20 -3.71
30 Xavier 81.80 0.68 -3.11 -5.61
31 Seton Hall 81.74 1.04 -2.20 -4.20
32 Texas A&M 81.55 0.94 -1.88 -3.54
33 Arkansas 81.42 0.84 -1.97 -3.59
34 Texas 81.23 0.51 -2.88 -5.02
35 Stanford 80.87 0.46 -2.58 -4.39
36 LSU 80.60 0.53 -2.16 -3.69
37 Oklahoma St. 80.25 0.25 -3.01 -5.08
38 Tulsa 80.23 0.68 -1.64 -2.92
39 Cincinnati 80.06 0.19 -2.34 -3.77
40 Davidson 79.91 0.23 -2.26 -3.72
41 Stephen F. Austin 79.30 0.08 -1.51 -2.33
42 Miami FL 78.76 0.36 -2.61 -4.40
43 Old Dominion 78.43 0.21 -1.92 -3.06
44 Michigan St. 77.98 -0.59 -3.61 -5.41
45 Saint Mary’s 77.97 0.11 -2.41 -3.81
46 Mississippi 77.65 -0.50 -3.55 -5.38
47 BYU 77.62 -0.41 -3.53 -5.37
48 Indiana 77.22 -0.29 -3.07 -4.65
49 Alabama 76.78 -0.62 -3.92 -6.03
50 Iowa 76.47 -0.68 -4.01 -6.09
51 St. John’s 76.23 -0.80 -3.71 -5.45
52 Valparaiso 76.06 -0.39 -2.25 -3.22
53 UCLA 75.97 -0.70 -4.39 -6.77
54 Green Bay 75.85 -0.47 -2.73 -3.96
55 Murray St. 75.63 -0.37 -2.24 -3.21
56 Florida 75.29 -1.30 -4.75 -6.95
57 Oregon 75.28 -0.59 -3.61 -5.41
58 George Washington 74.89 -0.73 -3.33 -4.78
59 Buffalo 74.63 -0.80 -3.33 -4.77
60 North Carolina St. 74.46 -1.32 -4.86 -7.03
61 Temple 74.18 -1.08 -3.94 -5.59
62 Tennessee 74.09 -0.79 -3.70 -5.45
63 Long Beach St. 73.13 -1.15 -5.14 -8.03
64 Rhode Island 73.10 -0.98 -3.00 -4.09
65 Michigan 72.97 -1.26 -4.36 -6.27
66 Wofford 72.87 -0.72 -2.88 -4.04
67 Syracuse 72.81 -1.39 -4.11 -5.66
68 Yale 72.69 -0.88 -3.36 -4.78
69 Harvard 72.51 -1.04 -2.98 -4.07
70 Boise St. 71.97 -1.32 -3.62 -4.91
71 Purdue 71.86 -1.86 -4.81 -6.52
72 Washington 71.80 -1.37 -3.67 -4.93
73 South Carolina 71.59 -2.14 -5.23 -7.19
74 Illinois 71.29 -1.87 -4.81 -6.52
75 Iona 71.11 -1.43 -3.73 -4.97
76 Kansas St. 71.05 -2.15 -5.70 -7.94
77 Richmond 70.25 -2.57 -5.60 -7.40
78 Wyoming 70.24 -1.09 -2.61 -3.38
79 Pittsburgh 69.80 -1.97 -4.85 -6.53
80 Clemson 69.72 -2.01 -4.87 -6.54
81 Oregon St. 69.72 -1.93 -4.41 -5.81
82 Western Kentucky 69.69 -1.46 -3.70 -4.95
83 Massachusetts 69.30 -1.92 -5.17 -7.18
84 Connecticut 69.21 -2.34 -5.02 -6.61
85 Louisiana Tech 68.82 -1.77 -3.45 -4.31
86 Bowling Green 68.74 -1.68 -3.38 -4.27
87 Penn St. 68.41 -2.33 -5.09 -6.66
88 Minnesota 68.35 -3.05 -5.93 -7.58
89 Illinois St. 67.78 -2.75 -5.33 -6.77
90 High Point 67.43 -1.42 -3.24 -4.21
91 Evansville 67.23 -1.93 -4.00 -5.10
92 Pepperdine 66.80 -2.81 -5.36 -6.79
93 William & Mary 66.72 -2.51 -4.73 -5.96
94 La Salle 66.54 -2.86 -5.78 -7.50
95 Eastern Washington 66.49 -1.55 -3.30 -4.24
96 UC Davis 66.21 -1.36 -2.74 -3.44
97 Memphis 66.15 -2.84 -5.37 -6.80
98 Georgia Tech 66.03 -3.43 -6.84 -9.00
99 Arizona St. 66.00 -3.89 -7.19 -9.20
100 Central Michigan 65.89 -1.61 -2.86 -3.49
101 UTEP 65.87 -2.61 -4.82 -6.01
102 Colorado 65.83 -3.36 -6.46 -8.33
103 Akron 65.33 -2.37 -4.23 -5.20
104 Toledo 65.01 -3.05 -5.50 -6.86
105 Vanderbilt 64.96 -3.63 -6.60 -8.39
106 Kent St. 64.90 -2.30 -4.19 -5.19
107 UNLV 64.55 -3.05 -5.90 -7.56
108 TCU 64.31 -3.28 -5.19 -6.19
109 Nebraska 64.15 -3.22 -6.00 -7.61
110 Northeastern 63.64 -3.02 -5.52 -6.87
111 New Mexico 63.44 -3.11 -5.10 -6.15
112 Georgia St. 63.26 -3.08 -5.08 -6.14
113 North Carolina Central 63.15 -2.48 -4.28 -5.23
114 Sam Houston St. 62.94 -2.37 -3.74 -4.44
115 UC Irvine 62.83 -3.39 -5.66 -6.93
116 Georgia Southern 62.70 -1.81 -2.96 -3.54
117 Marquette 62.50 -4.08 -7.28 -9.23
118 South Dakota St. 62.15 -3.25 -5.18 -6.19
119 DePaul 60.94 -4.33 -7.86 -10.04
120 Cleveland St. 59.81 -4.43 -7.13 -8.67
121 Western Michigan 59.49 -3.57 -5.77 -6.98
122 Rider 58.81 -3.85 -5.97 -7.09
123 Belmont 58.70 -3.25 -5.18 -6.18
124 California 58.46 -3.92 -6.42 -7.82
125 Loyola Chicago 57.81 -4.12 -6.52 -7.86
126 Florida Gulf Coast 57.61 -3.50 -5.30 -6.24
127 Wake Forest 57.51 -5.39 -8.51 -10.37
128 Boston College 57.46 -4.79 -7.70 -9.45
129 Florida St. 57.41 -4.67 -7.27 -8.75
130 Eastern Michigan 57.09 -3.59 -5.32 -6.24
131 Rutgers 56.88 -4.99 -8.63 -10.91
132 Eastern Kentucky 56.42 -4.66 -6.82 -8.00
133 Radford 56.07 -3.63 -5.37 -6.27
134 Auburn 56.07 -4.74 -7.67 -9.43
135 San Diego 56.05 -5.37 -8.12 -9.67
136 Stony Brook 55.95 -4.57 -6.81 -8.01
137 Canisius 55.55 -4.25 -6.16 -7.17
138 Portland 55.20 -4.73 -7.29 -8.75
139 Incarnate Word 55.17 -2.53 -3.79 -4.46
140 St. Bonaventure 55.16 -4.26 -6.16 -7.17
141 Washington St. 55.14 -4.66 -7.65 -9.43
142 Albany 55.08 -3.90 -5.52 -6.34
143 Creighton 54.89 -6.08 -9.35 -11.29
144 Utah St. 54.87 -4.76 -6.89 -8.04
145 Oakland 54.45 -5.11 -8.25 -10.21
146 Cal Poly 54.40 -4.70 -7.22 -8.70
147 Northwestern 54.30 -5.54 -8.20 -9.71
148 UAB 54.10 -5.52 -8.18 -9.70
149 Sacramento St. 53.98 -3.25 -4.69 -5.42
150 Lafayette 53.96 -4.26 -6.17 -7.18
151 Texas Southern 53.91 -5.11 -7.94 -9.58
152 UC Santa Barbara 53.42 -5.23 -7.95 -9.57
153 UNC Wilmington 53.37 -4.51 -6.75 -7.97
154 Tennessee Martin 53.33 -4.41 -6.24 -7.21
155 James Madison 52.87 -5.19 -7.61 -8.92
156 Middle Tennessee 52.74 -5.18 -7.58 -8.90
157 East Tennessee St. 52.65 -4.23 -6.14 -7.16
158 Norfolk St. 52.50 -5.06 -7.08 -8.14
159 Hawaii 52.49 -4.60 -6.36 -7.27
160 Gardner Webb 52.44 -4.46 -6.70 -7.95
161 Texas Tech 52.41 -5.47 -8.18 -9.70
162 Oral Roberts 51.82 -5.16 -7.56 -8.89
163 Santa Clara 51.80 -5.56 -8.59 -10.40
164 Saint Joseph’s 51.68 -5.67 -8.25 -9.73
165 Chattanooga 51.63 -4.64 -6.38 -7.28
166 USC 51.28 -5.68 -8.26 -9.73
167 Charlotte 51.15 -6.20 -8.99 -10.60
168 Eastern Illinois 50.94 -4.81 -6.93 -8.07
169 New Mexico St. 50.69 -6.04 -8.06 -9.13
170 Wright St. 50.56 -5.59 -8.21 -9.71
171 Missouri 50.32 -5.79 -9.32 -11.70
172 North Dakota St. 49.90 -4.30 -5.72 -6.43
173 Hofstra 49.71 -5.71 -7.43 -8.30
174 UT Arlington 49.46 -5.10 -7.08 -8.14
175 Tulane 49.21 -5.35 -7.23 -8.21
176 North Florida 49.12 -5.99 -8.03 -9.12
177 Coastal Carolina 48.76 -4.39 -5.75 -6.45
178 St. Francis NY 48.53 -5.69 -7.41 -8.30
179 Louisiana Monroe 48.26 -4.62 -6.35 -7.26
180 Columbia 48.16 -4.83 -6.45 -7.30
181 St. Francis PA 48.02 -5.27 -7.18 -8.18
182 Mount St. Mary’s 47.75 -6.11 -8.53 -9.87
183 American 47.23 -5.80 -7.93 -9.06
184 NJIT 46.84 -6.05 -8.07 -9.13
185 Indiana St. 46.49 -6.47 -8.74 -9.97
186 Monmouth 46.42 -6.27 -8.19 -9.19
187 Mississippi St. 46.41 -6.40 -8.69 -9.94
188 San Francisco 45.89 -7.96 -10.87 -12.55
189 Detroit 45.56 -7.53 -10.21 -11.72
190 Virginia Tech 45.45 -7.18 -9.58 -10.90
191 USC Upstate 45.41 -4.89 -6.01 -6.57
192 Maryland Eastern Shore 45.33 -6.37 -8.26 -9.22
193 Bucknell 45.08 -6.77 -8.92 -10.07
194 Robert Morris 44.78 -6.84 -8.96 -10.08
195 Army 44.71 -4.60 -5.87 -6.50
196 Lehigh 44.48 -6.17 -8.12 -9.15
197 Vermont 44.28 -6.83 -8.48 -9.33
198 George Mason 44.24 -6.73 -9.62 -11.40
199 Quinnipiac 44.10 -6.03 -7.58 -8.37
200 Cornell 43.74 -6.37 -8.22 -9.20
201 Montana 43.73 -5.95 -7.52 -8.34
202 Louisiana Lafayette 42.99 -6.63 -8.36 -9.26
203 Charleston Southern 42.59 -5.23 -6.66 -7.40
204 FIU 42.37 -6.14 -8.08 -9.13
205 Mercer 42.26 -7.22 -9.16 -10.17
206 Northern Arizona 42.22 -6.92 -8.98 -10.09
207 Fresno St. 41.79 -7.20 -9.57 -10.89
208 Northwestern St. 41.20 -5.71 -7.37 -8.26
209 Colgate 40.99 -8.37 -10.70 -11.96
210 Delaware St. 40.96 -6.86 -8.93 -10.06
211 Dartmouth 40.56 -6.73 -8.41 -9.28
212 Loyola Marymount 40.49 -8.35 -11.83 -14.01
213 UCF 40.21 -7.23 -9.59 -10.90
214 Bryant 40.21 -6.64 -8.37 -9.27
215 New Hampshire 40.11 -6.30 -7.72 -8.43
216 Western Carolina 39.38 -7.83 -9.95 -11.07
217 Pacific 39.38 -7.72 -10.28 -11.74
218 UNC Asheville 39.34 -6.67 -8.37 -9.27
219 Missouri St. 38.91 -7.99 -10.44 -11.83
220 Manhattan 38.79 -6.95 -8.54 -9.35
221 Saint Louis 38.41 -7.57 -9.78 -10.99
222 Saint Peter’s 38.41 -8.93 -11.02 -12.11
223 IUPUI 38.23 -8.57 -11.24 -12.73
224 Northern Illinois 37.66 -7.20 -9.11 -10.14
225 Florida Atlantic 37.38 -6.50 -8.25 -9.21
226 Ohio 37.25 -7.84 -9.92 -11.06
227 IPFW 37.15 -7.50 -9.29 -10.23
228 UC Riverside 36.94 -7.33 -9.19 -10.19
229 Milwaukee 36.94 -8.60 -11.23 -12.73
230 Northern Colorado 36.81 -6.46 -7.79 -8.46
231 South Florida 36.70 -8.70 -11.68 -13.45
232 Denver 36.49 -8.82 -10.95 -12.08
233 Morehead St. 36.26 -9.39 -11.71 -12.96
234 Portland St. 36.20 -6.31 -7.71 -8.43
235 Winthrop 36.01 -7.22 -8.66 -9.41
236 Towson 36.00 -8.41 -10.27 -11.23
237 Princeton 35.80 -7.21 -8.66 -9.40
238 Appalachian St. 35.20 -7.42 -9.25 -10.21
239 Texas St. 34.98 -6.93 -8.50 -9.33
240 South Dakota 34.96 -8.99 -11.04 -12.12
241 Hartford 34.92 -7.71 -9.42 -10.30
242 Ball St. 34.61 -7.91 -9.95 -11.06
243 Elon 34.43 -8.35 -10.23 -11.21
244 UTSA 34.28 -7.32 -8.72 -9.43
245 Weber St. 34.21 -8.05 -10.04 -11.11
246 Alabama St. 34.03 -4.63 -5.37 -5.72
247 Boston University 33.82 -8.73 -10.87 -12.04
248 Tennessee Tech 33.59 -9.00 -11.04 -12.12
249 Penn 33.25 -7.44 -9.23 -10.20
250 Loyola MD 33.15 -8.33 -10.22 -11.20
251 Northern Kentucky 33.15 -8.78 -10.90 -12.05
252 Howard 33.09 -7.17 -8.64 -9.40
253 Drake 33.07 -9.21 -12.37 -14.28
254 Drexel 32.91 -8.79 -10.91 -12.05
255 Miami OH 32.51 -8.95 -10.99 -12.09
256 Holy Cross 32.48 -7.71 -9.39 -10.28
257 Texas A&M Corpus Chris 32.05 -6.78 -7.95 -8.54
258 McNeese St. 31.86 -7.00 -8.94 -10.05
259 Southern Illinois 31.57 -10.06 -12.08 -13.14
260 Arkansas St. 31.28 -8.64 -10.38 -11.27
261 Brown 31.23 -8.43 -10.25 -11.21
262 Cal St. Fullerton 30.99 -8.83 -10.92 -12.05
263 Youngstown St. 30.97 -9.64 -11.84 -13.02
264 North Texas 30.74 -7.88 -9.49 -10.32
265 Lamar 30.64 -7.33 -8.72 -9.43
266 Duquesne 30.60 -9.05 -11.04 -12.11
267 Grand Canyon 30.52 -8.41 -9.78 -10.46
268 UMass Lowell 30.41 -9.13 -11.11 -12.15
269 Southern 30.38 -9.26 -11.17 -12.18
270 Southeast Missouri St. 30.37 -8.80 -10.46 -11.31
271 Houston 30.17 -8.95 -10.54 -11.35
272 Utah Valley 30.16 -7.87 -9.48 -10.32
273 Siena 30.14 -8.75 -10.43 -11.30
274 East Carolina 30.09 -8.52 -10.29 -11.23
275 Idaho 30.02 -8.07 -9.58 -10.36
276 Lipscomb 29.64 -8.67 -10.38 -11.27
277 Seattle 28.90 -7.70 -8.91 -9.52
278 Air Force 28.79 -9.09 -10.60 -11.38
279 College of Charleston 28.11 -11.78 -14.38 -15.81
280 North Dakota 27.73 -8.78 -10.87 -12.03
281 Sacred Heart 27.53 -10.73 -12.43 -13.31
282 Navy 26.98 -10.32 -12.21 -13.20
283 Bradley 26.85 -11.26 -13.64 -14.93
284 VMI 26.83 -10.05 -12.05 -13.12
285 SIU Edwardsville 26.79 -9.32 -10.73 -11.44
286 Fordham 26.79 -8.75 -10.83 -12.00
287 Cal St. Northridge 26.31 -11.45 -14.17 -15.70
288 Western Illinois 26.24 -8.05 -9.57 -10.36
289 Wagner 26.17 -9.86 -11.49 -12.33
290 Arkansas Little Rock 26.14 -10.05 -11.59 -12.37
291 Southeastern Louisiana 25.72 -9.92 -12.38 -13.79
292 South Carolina St. 25.44 -10.83 -12.96 -14.08
293 LIU Brooklyn 25.18 -10.15 -11.65 -12.40
294 Fairleigh Dickinson 25.13 -10.07 -12.06 -13.13
295 UMKC 25.11 -10.22 -12.14 -13.17
296 Samford 24.81 -11.03 -12.59 -13.38
297 Nevada 24.28 -10.00 -12.00 -13.09
298 Nebraska Omaha 23.95 -10.27 -11.70 -12.43
299 Furman 23.86 -10.12 -12.08 -13.13
300 Cal St. Bakersfield 23.71 -11.13 -12.64 -13.40
301 Delaware 23.70 -11.41 -13.71 -14.96
302 Campbell 23.46 -11.17 -13.12 -14.15
303 New Orleans 23.08 -7.58 -9.26 -10.20
304 Marshall 22.85 -11.21 -13.57 -14.89
305 Jacksonville St. 22.84 -11.46 -13.30 -14.24
306 Abilene Christian 22.76 -9.34 -10.73 -11.44
307 South Alabama 22.67 -11.11 -13.09 -14.14
308 Fairfield 22.58 -11.41 -13.26 -14.22
309 Houston Baptist 22.53 -7.12 -8.11 -8.61
310 Hampton 22.10 -10.53 -11.84 -12.49
311 Arkansas Pine Bluff 22.05 -11.59 -13.36 -14.27
312 The Citadel 21.18 -9.97 -11.53 -12.34
313 Rice 20.95 -9.85 -11.46 -12.31
314 Troy 20.44 -9.74 -10.93 -11.53
315 Texas Pan American 20.27 -10.49 -12.29 -13.23
316 Austin Peay 20.04 -11.44 -13.27 -14.22
317 Southern Miss 19.70 -10.24 -12.13 -13.16
318 Prairie View A&M 19.43 -11.39 -13.24 -14.21
319 Kennesaw St. 18.78 -12.47 -14.30 -15.24
320 Longwood 18.62 -12.39 -14.25 -15.22
321 Savannah St. 18.34 -10.64 -13.21 -14.70
322 Southern Utah 18.15 -10.69 -12.38 -13.27
323 Illinois Chicago 16.88 -12.92 -15.42 -16.82
324 Morgan St. 15.67 -12.93 -15.00 -16.10
325 Jackson St. 15.64 -12.85 -14.49 -15.33
326 Niagara 15.13 -12.81 -14.92 -16.06
327 Coppin St. 14.64 -12.38 -15.08 -16.64
328 North Carolina A&T 14.44 -13.41 -15.26 -16.22
329 Montana St. 14.02 -12.97 -15.01 -16.10
330 Alabama A&M 13.95 -10.66 -11.89 -12.51
331 Stetson 13.84 -12.22 -13.67 -14.41
332 Tennessee St. 12.94 -13.73 -15.89 -17.05
333 Bethune Cookman 12.81 -12.82 -13.98 -14.55
334 Idaho St. 12.65 -13.67 -15.39 -16.28
335 Presbyterian 12.16 -12.61 -14.35 -15.26
336 Nicholls St. 11.94 -9.74 -11.37 -12.26
337 Chicago St. 11.94 -12.66 -15.24 -16.73
338 Marist 11.88 -14.33 -16.21 -17.20
339 Binghamton 11.85 -14.83 -16.96 -18.08
340 UNC Greensboro 11.59 -13.78 -15.45 -16.31
341 Jacksonville 10.48 -14.29 -15.72 -16.44
342 Mississippi Valley St. 10.45 -14.22 -16.16 -17.17
343 UMBC 9.12 -15.00 -16.57 -17.37
344 Alcorn St. 8.51 -13.47 -14.80 -15.47
345 Maine 8.22 -15.48 -17.76 -18.99
346 Central Connecticut 7.80 -16.80 -18.48 -19.33
347 Liberty 7.39 -13.44 -14.78 -15.46
348 San Jose St. 0.83 -14.31 -16.61 -17.90
349 Central Arkansas 0.57 -15.33 -16.73 -17.43
350 Florida A&M 0.42 -18.23 -19.69 -20.42
351 Grambling St. 0.36 -12.42 -14.21 -15.18
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