CFP Contenders odds of going X-1 or better against their respective schedules

I used the F+ ratings (found here: to judge the difficulty of the schedule. I used a team with a neutral field pythag rating of .900 as the control. I am assuming that Alabama faces Missouri in the SEC championship game, that Ohio St. faces Wisconsin in the Big 10 championship game, and that UCLA and Oregon face each other in the Pac 10 championship game. The results:

Alabama 1.59% X-0
8.92% X-1
10.51% X-1 or better
Oregon 7.60% X-0
23.84% X-1
31.44% X-1 or better
FSU 4.61% X-0
17.64% X-1
22.25% X-1 or better
Mississippi St. 1.57% X-0
11.25% X-1
12.82% X-1 or better
TCU 7.98% X-0
26.83% X-1
34.80% X-1 or better
Ohio St. 7.27% X-0
22.96% X-1
30.22% X-1 or better
Baylor 8.22% X-0
27.09% X-1
35.32% X-1 or better
UCLA 2.04% X-0
10.46% X-1
12.50% X-1 or better

Just some food for thought. Remember, when it comes to college football and invitations to the championship series, “Deserve’s got nothing to do with it.”


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