After an absolutely brutal morning, Football Outsiders is down $1,204,347. However, don’t worry, their credit rating is strong. Onward with the afternoon wagers:
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay -4, risking $268,549 to win $244,135
San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys
San Francisco -3.5, risking $359,111 to win $398,613
So, I promised a little bit of an explanation. The way Kelly-betting works is that you wager the amount that most maximizes long term bankroll growth. The larger your edge, the higher % of your bankroll risked. As your bankroll grows or shrinks, so will your bet size. However, I am going to be using a constant bankroll of $1,000,000 for each wager as to treat all games equally. As for how I am sizing these wagers, it is based on the true line that Football Outsiders is setting for the games.
On Monday I’ll provide an estimate of what the bankroll would be if we were using the methodology used for Nate Silver during the World Cup.